Tornado Warning 26, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
938 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for
  many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for
  Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to
  begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading
  across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late
  night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and
  torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and
  west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest
  risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville
  Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and
  eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest
  half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower
  storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be
  the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The evening sounding at OHX is well underway and we can share some
data already up to 400 mb. SBCAPE is 1,776 J/kg and the LI is -9
(hence the large hail that's already occurred). The 0-3 km storm-
relative helicity is 408 owing to a 40 kt wind at 925 mb and 50 kt
wind at 850 mb, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is 7.2C/km.
Precipitable Water is coming in at 1.56", which is a new record
max for this date. So the environment we expected is definitely in
place. A cold front is just now crossing the Mississippi River,
and won't make it much further before becoming quasi-stationary by
around 12Z tomorrow. The boundary likely won't actually come
through Middle Tennessee until late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The surface boundary that is creating all this mayhem tonight
continues to creep toward Middle Tennessee, but will soon stall
just to our northwest. Earlier discreet cells that produced large
hail and some wind damage across mainly western portions of
Middle Tennessee have either dissipated or moved out of the area,
and we are now watching the next line of severe storms track
across West Tennessee and toward the OHX warning area. Not much
has changed from our earlier messaging. We expect the approaching
storms to have their most significant impacts over western Middle
Tennessee, then weaken somewhat as they advance toward the
Nashville Metro Area. It is still conceivable that some portions
of the mid state may not be impacted at all tonight, especially
over southeastern portions of the mid state. As the severe threat
overnight diminishes, we will begin to transition to more of a
flooding threat. Granted, severe storms will still be possible
until the aforementioned boundary loosens from its moors and
finally sweeps through the mid state this weekend. But the
primary impacts after tonight will be areal flooding, river
flooding and also flash flooding in areas affected by high
rainfall rates. Temperatures will remain quite warm the remainder
of this week. (Today's high temperature of 85 degrees at
Nashville was just 2 degrees shy of the daily record high.) The
unusually warm air mass and moisture transport provided by strong
low-level winds, coupled with the close proximity of the quasi-
stationary boundary are fueling what is expected to be some large
rainfall totals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Blocking high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will
finally relent this weekend and enable the stalled frontal
boundary to come through Middle Tennessee late Saturday and
Saturday night, with one more round of potentially severe storms
and heavy rainfall before this active weather pattern draws to an
end. By the time the rain finally winds down on Sunday, we are
looking at storm total QPF of 2 to 3" along the Cumberland
Plateau, to 5 to 7" across Nashville Metro, to 10+" around Land-
between-the-Lakes. So we do expect significant rises along rivers
and creeks across a large portion of the mid state. Fortunately,
the weather next week will be much more benign, albeit
significantly cooler. Of note, widespread frost is possible
Tuesday morning, and many spots can expect freezing temperatures
Wednesday morning before we start to warm back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong to severe storms have moved into Middle Tennessee with more
to follow. A quasi-stationary surface boundary is in the process
of setting up just to our northwest and this will provide the
focus for active weather for the next 4 days. In the near-term,
areas closest to the boundary can expect the most significant
impacts, so we've included TS in the initial period at CKV along
with significant LLWS. There are lesser chances of storms for KBNA
and even less for KMQY. The HRRR shows a line of storms developing
later this evening and moving into the Nashville Metro Area after
06Z, but not much further. KCSV and KSRB, being so far from the
boundary, have only a low probability of seeing active weather in
the next 24 hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  78  67  86 /  70  80  50  40
Clarksville    63  71  61  83 /  90  90  70  70
Crossville     65  80  64  83 /  20  30  20  20
Columbia       67  81  67  86 /  60  60  40  30
Cookeville     66  80  66  83 /  40  60  30  30
Jamestown      65  80  64  83 /  40  60  30  30
Lawrenceburg   69  81  69  85 /  40  40  30  20
Murfreesboro   67  82  66  86 /  50  60  40  20
Waverly        63  72  63  84 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>060-062-093.

&&

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     Hail             5 NNE Ashland City      36.33N 87.01W
04/02/2025  E2.50 Inch       Cheatham           TN   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Hail             Springfield             36.50N 86.88W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Robertson          TN   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

TNZ028-062-030000-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walterhill, or 11 miles north of Murfreesboro, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Lebanon, Tuckers Crossroads, Dickerson
Chapel Recreation Area, Gladeville, Walterhill, Smyrna, and La
Vergne.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 231 and 247.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 59 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 8619 3633 8617 3631 8615 3627 8612
      3624 8611 3623 8612 3620 8609 3594 8642
      3600 8654 3631 8636 3631 8630 3634 8629
      3635 8627 3633 8626 3632 8627 3630 8627
      3631 8625 3634 8625 3635 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 214DEG 43KT 3602 8643

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Hail             White House             36.46N 86.67W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Robertson          TN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
702 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     Hail             6 NE Ashland City       36.34N 86.98W
04/02/2025  M2.75 Inch       Cheatham           TN   Trained Spotter

            Close to baseball-size hail, windshields
            blown out, lots of damage.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
753 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Lobelville        35.75N 87.78W
04/02/2025                   Perry              TN   Public

            Structure damage on Jones Hollow Road near
            Lobelville. Time estimated from radar.

&&

SWU