River Flood Warning 20, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
607 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for
  many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for
  Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to
  begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading
  across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late
  night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and
  torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and
  west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest
  risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville
  Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and
  eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest
  half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower
  storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be
  the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The surface boundary that is creating all this mayhem tonight
continues to creep toward Middle Tennessee, but will soon stall
just to our northwest. Earlier discreet cells that produced large
hail and some wind damage across mainly western portions of
Middle Tennessee have either dissipated or moved out of the area,
and we are now watching the next line of severe storms track
across West Tennessee and toward the OHX warning area. Not much
has changed from our earlier messaging. We expect the approaching
storms to have their most significant impacts over western Middle
Tennessee, then weaken somewhat as they advance toward the
Nashville Metro Area. It is still conceivable that some portions
of the mid state may not be impacted at all tonight, especially
over southeastern portions of the mid state. As the severe threat
overnight diminishes, we will begin to transition to more of a
flooding threat. Granted, severe storms will still be possible
until the aforementioned boundary loosens from its moors and
finally sweeps through the mid state this weekend. But the
primary impacts after tonight will be areal flooding, river
flooding and also flash flooding in areas affected by high
rainfall rates. Temperatures will remain quite warm the remainder
of this week. (Today's high temperature of 85 degrees at
Nashville was just 2 degrees shy of the daily record high.) The
unusually warm air mass and moisture transport provided by strong
low-level winds, coupled with the close proximity of the quasi-
stationary boundary are fueling what is expected to be some large
rainfall totals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Blocking high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will
finally relent this weekend and enable the stalled frontal
boundary to come through Middle Tennessee late Saturday and
Saturday night, with one more round of potentially severe storms
and heavy rainfall before this active weather pattern draws to an
end. By the time the rain finally winds down on Sunday, we are
looking at storm total QPF of 2 to 3" along the Cumberland
Plateau, to 5 to 7" across Nashville Metro, to 10+" around Land-
between-the-Lakes. So we do expect significant rises along rivers
and creeks across a large portion of the mid state. Fortunately,
the weather next week will be much more benign, albeit
significantly cooler. Of note, widespread frost is possible
Tuesday morning, and many spots can expect freezing temperatures
Wednesday morning before we start to warm back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Ongoing storms are occurring along a stalled front, which will
meander across northern Middle TN through the day, making for a
low confidence forecast. Showers and storms will impact BNA and
MQY for the next few hours, then lift north as the front retreats
north. CKV is expected to see storms increase this afternoon as
the front stalls nearby. South of the front, ceilings will likely
improve to VFR in the afternoon. With the front expected to be
somewhere near the TN/KY border tonight, CKV will likely have
showers and MVFR conditions continuing through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  78  67  86 /  70  80  50  40
Clarksville    63  71  61  83 /  90  90  70  70
Crossville     65  80  64  83 /  20  30  20  20
Columbia       67  81  67  86 /  60  60  40  30
Cookeville     66  80  66  83 /  40  60  30  30
Jamestown      65  80  64  83 /  40  60  30  30
Lawrenceburg   69  81  69  85 /  40  40  30  20
Murfreesboro   67  82  66  86 /  50  60  40  20
Waverly        63  72  63  84 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....DGS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
752 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 AM     Hail             5 NW Gallatin           36.44N 86.52W
04/03/2025  E0.00 Inch       Sumner             TN   Public

            Time estimated via radar.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
757 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Hail             3 E Coopertown          36.42N 86.91W
04/02/2025  E1.50 Inch       Robertson          TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     Hail             5 SSW Fairview          35.90N 87.15W
04/03/2025  E1.50 Inch       Williamson         TN   Emergency Mngr

            South Harpeth Rd between Pinewood Rd and
            I-840 closed because of high water.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
815 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     Flash Flood      Fairview                35.98N 87.12W
04/03/2025                   Williamson         TN   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads closed due to high water
            including Chester Road, Forest Glen, Sleep
            Hollow Road, and South Harpeth Road between
            Pinewood Rd and I-840.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
825 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 AM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Berry Hill        36.11N 86.77W
04/03/2025                   Davidson           TN   Public

            Media reporting I-65 NB at mm80 closed due
            to flooding.

&&

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