Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are a threat tonight into early Monday
  morning with a level 3 out of 5 risk across the area. Damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest
  risk for tornadoes and large hail is west of I-65.

- Flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible mid to late
  week with a series of weather systems to impact the area. The
  flooding could become significant by late week with some areas
  possibly exceeding 5 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A tornado watch is currently in effect for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. A line of storms has
crossed into our northwest counties, and everything seems to be
consistent with what was forecast earlier regarding timing and
impacts. The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that
will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday.
Rain and storm chances will linger into the Monday, but we do not
expect any severe impacts beyond 12Z. Obviously, cooler air will
fill in behind the front. Tomorrow's max temps will only be in the
60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night,
although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice
recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring our next storm chances,
and it already appears that Middle Tennessee is in for more severe
weather with this next active weather system. The SPC currently
has all of Middle Tennessee in a 15% hatched area for day 4, with
a 30% hatched are covering roughly the northwest 1/3 of the mid
state. But this is just the opening salvo. This boundary is likely
to become quasi-stationary just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee and will allow a series of waves to train through the
region so that some hefty rainfall totals look to build up which
very well may lead to flooding. While it isn't apparent that a
significant severe threat will persist beyond Wednesday night,
there will be an ongoing flooding threat. At this time, QPF totals
from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday range from maybe 1.5"
along the Cumberland Plateau, to around 4" for Nashville Metro, to
7+ inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes -- areas
that have already been heavily impacted by significant rainfall
during the past several weeks. Even larger QPF totals are showing
up further upstream. Should the aforementioned boundary shift a
little to the east, it could have serious consequences for an even
larger portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The strongest activity has already made it through KCKV, KBNA and
KMQY, with just some lingering light echoes still affecting KBNA
and KCKV. Line of storms still has yet to go through KCSV and
KSRB, and have timed these accordingly. Once the surface boundary
passes, look for MVFR/IFR ceilings to fill in behind and persist
for most of the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  66  41  71 /  90  50   0   0
Clarksville    51  61  38  68 /  90  10   0   0
Crossville     58  66  37  68 /  90  90   0   0
Columbia       55  67  39  71 / 100  60   0   0
Cookeville     56  64  39  69 /  90  80   0   0
Jamestown      56  65  37  68 /  90  80   0   0
Lawrenceburg   57  67  39  71 /  90  80   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  67  39  73 /  90  70   0   0
Waverly        51  63  39  70 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NW Mount Pleasant     35.60N 87.27W
03/31/2025                   Maury              TN   Public

            Trees down at the crossroad of Hampshire
            Pike and Old State Road near Columbia. Time
            is radar estimated.

&&

APB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
118 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

TNZ011-032>034-066-310700-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
118 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OVERTON...CENTRAL PICKETT...NORTH
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND...CENTRAL PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH 200
AM CDT...

At 118 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Livingston to Cookeville. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grimsley, Allardt, Jamestown, Algood, Clarkrange, Livingston,
Crawford, Rickman, Pickett State Park, Monterey, and Cookeville.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 284 and 303.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8503 3612 8558 3643 8535 3660 8478
      3650 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 268DEG 35KT 3641 8529 3615 8550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
123 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Mount Pleasant     35.57N 87.21W
03/31/2025                   Maury              TN   Emergency Mngr

            Cross Bridges Road unpassable due to damage
            in the area. Other reports of electrical
            poles down, damage to structures and
            multiple trees down in Maury County. Time is
            radar estimated.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
126 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Fairview           35.94N 87.18W
03/31/2025                   Williamson         TN   Public

            Tspotter photos received of minor damage to
            roof of a home on Fairview Blvd (Highway
            100). Time is radar estimated.

&&

APB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
132 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

TNZ028-059-060-062-310730-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Maury TN-
132 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN
MAURY...SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 AM CDT...

At 132 AM CDT, the public reported a strong winds 9 miles east of
Thompson's Station, or 9 miles southeast of Franklin, moving east at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Lascassas, Murfreesboro, Nolensville, Spring Hill,
Walterhill, Thompson's Station, Triune, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park,
Eagleville, Watertown, Rockvale, Smyrna, Milton, Readyville, La
Vergne, Brentwood, and Columbia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 50 and 67.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 65 and 84.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 25 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8614 3596 8615 3580 8618 3567 8700
      3591 8693 3598 8666 3597 8662 3599 8661
      3612 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 255DEG 41KT 3582 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

40/Sizemore