Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are a threat tonight into early Monday
  morning with a level 3 out of 5 risk across the area. Damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest
  risk for tornadoes and large hail is west of I-65.

- Flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible mid to late
  week with a series of weather systems to impact the area. The
  flooding could become significant by late week with some areas
  possibly exceeding 5 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A tornado watch is currently in effect for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. A line of storms has
crossed into our northwest counties, and everything seems to be
consistent with what was forecast earlier regarding timing and
impacts. The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that
will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday.
Rain and storm chances will linger into the Monday, but we do not
expect any severe impacts beyond 12Z. Obviously, cooler air will
fill in behind the front. Tomorrow's max temps will only be in the
60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night,
although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice
recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring our next storm chances,
and it already appears that Middle Tennessee is in for more severe
weather with this next active weather system. The SPC currently
has all of Middle Tennessee in a 15% hatched area for day 4, with
a 30% hatched are covering roughly the northwest 1/3 of the mid
state. But this is just the opening salvo. This boundary is likely
to become quasi-stationary just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee and will allow a series of waves to train through the
region so that some hefty rainfall totals look to build up which
very well may lead to flooding. While it isn't apparent that a
significant severe threat will persist beyond Wednesday night,
there will be an ongoing flooding threat. At this time, QPF totals
from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday range from maybe 1.5"
along the Cumberland Plateau, to around 4" for Nashville Metro, to
7+ inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes -- areas
that have already been heavily impacted by significant rainfall
during the past several weeks. Even larger QPF totals are showing
up further upstream. Should the aforementioned boundary shift a
little to the east, it could have serious consequences for an even
larger portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The strongest activity has already made it through KCKV, KBNA and
KMQY, with just some lingering light echoes still affecting KBNA
and KCKV. Line of storms still has yet to go through KCSV and
KSRB, and have timed these accordingly. Once the surface boundary
passes, look for MVFR/IFR ceilings to fill in behind and persist
for most of the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  66  41  71 /  90  50   0   0
Clarksville    51  61  38  68 /  90  10   0   0
Crossville     58  66  37  68 /  90  90   0   0
Columbia       55  67  39  71 / 100  60   0   0
Cookeville     56  64  39  69 /  90  80   0   0
Jamestown      56  65  37  68 /  90  80   0   0
Lawrenceburg   57  67  39  71 /  90  80   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  67  39  73 /  90  70   0   0
Waverly        51  63  39  70 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     Hail             3 NNE Franklin          35.97N 86.83W
03/30/2025  M1.00 Inch       Williamson         TN   Public

            Tspotter report of quarter size hail at
            McKays Mill in Franklin.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     Hail             2 W Nolensville         35.95N 86.68W
03/31/2025  M2.00 Inch       Williamson         TN   Public

            Tspotter photo received of 2 inch size hail
            southwest of Nolensville.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Fairview           35.94N 87.17W
03/30/2025                   Williamson         TN   Public

            Tspotter report of groups of trees down and
            damage in the area of Highway
            100/840/Pinewood Road/Liberty Road. Time is
            radar estimated.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Hail             3 S La Vergne           35.96N 86.57W
03/31/2025  M2.00 Inch       Rutherford         TN   Public

            Tspotter photo received of 2 inch size hail
            between Nolensville and Smyrna. Time is
            radar estimated.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NW Mount Pleasant     35.60N 87.27W
03/31/2025                   Maury              TN   Public

            Trees down at the crossroad of Hampshire
            Pike and Old State Road near Columbia. Time
            is radar estimated.

&&

APB

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