Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
926 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are a threat tonight into early Monday
  morning with a level 3 out of 5 risk across the area. Damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest
  risk for tornadoes and large hail is west of I-65.

- Flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible mid to late
  week with a series of weather systems to impact the area. The
  flooding could become significant by late week with some areas
  possibly exceeding 5 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A tornado watch is currently in effect for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. A line of storms has
crossed into our northwest counties, and everything seems to be
consistent with what was forecast earlier regarding timing and
impacts. The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that
will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday.
Rain and storm chances will linger into the Monday, but we do not
expect any severe impacts beyond 12Z. Obviously, cooler air will
fill in behind the front. Tomorrow's max temps will only be in the
60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night,
although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice
recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring our next storm chances,
and it already appears that Middle Tennessee is in for more severe
weather with this next active weather system. The SPC currently
has all of Middle Tennessee in a 15% hatched area for day 4, with
a 30% hatched are covering roughly the northwest 1/3 of the mid
state. But this is just the opening salvo. This boundary is likely
to become quasi-stationary just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee and will allow a series of waves to train through the
region so that some hefty rainfall totals look to build up which
very well may lead to flooding. While it isn't apparent that a
significant severe threat will persist beyond Wednesday night,
there will be an ongoing flooding threat. At this time, QPF totals
from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday range from maybe 1.5"
along the Cumberland Plateau, to around 4" for Nashville Metro, to
7+ inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes -- areas
that have already been heavily impacted by significant rainfall
during the past several weeks. Even larger QPF totals are showing
up further upstream. Should the aforementioned boundary shift a
little to the east, it could have serious consequences for an even
larger portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

It's going to be an active night for convection across Middle
Tennessee. Severe storms are ongoing over extreme southeast MO and
eastern AR, and are due to arrive in Middle Tennessee beginning
around 02Z with slow eastward progress throughout the late evening
and overnight. We have used the 22Z HRRR for timing of the
expected storms. There hasn't been a great deal of change with the
forecast, so there is reasonably good confidence in the timing of
the TEMPO groups in the 00Z TAFs. Since all of our terminals are
under an enhanced risk of severe storms, have included higher wind
gusts within the TEMPO period. There is also a hail probability,
but not enough of a probability to warrant mention in the TAFs.
Once the storms depart, expect low ceilings to fill in behind the
surface boundary for much of the day on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  66  42  71 /  90  50   0   0
Clarksville    51  61  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
Crossville     58  67  37  68 /  90  80  10   0
Columbia       55  67  40  71 /  90  60   0   0
Cookeville     56  65  39  69 /  90  70   0   0
Jamestown      56  66  37  68 /  90  70  10   0
Lawrenceburg   57  68  40  71 /  90  70   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  68  39  73 /  90  60   0   0
Waverly        51  63  39  70 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH 78.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1034 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     Tornado          4 WNW Mcewen            36.13N 87.70W
03/30/2025                   Humphreys          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Report of roof gone on a house. Time
            estimated by tornado debris signature on
            radar.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1038 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Springfield       36.49N 86.87W
03/30/2025                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Report of tree on home on Circle Drive. Time
            estimated on radar.

&&

APB