River Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

- Significant flooding (both river and flash flooding) is expected
  in middle Tennessee today, mainly in northwestern middle
  Tennessee.

- Severe weather is expected this evening into tonight. Main
  impacts are damaging winds and tornadoes, with the greatest
  threat area west of I-24.

- Temperatures plummet next week, with a chance for snow entering
  the forecast. Confidence is on the low side with specifics
  currently.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Rain has been falling already for most of the morning in middle
Tennessee, with some thunderstorms embedded in these warm frontal
showers. This axis of precipitation is expected to shift more NW as
the stationary front to our north wobbles throughout the day. This
will leave a period of clearing for our potential severe threat this
evening. As the low pressure system approaches from the west, moist
dewpoints are expected to drive north into Tennessee. With the surge
of moisture, the instability axis in current guidance also appears
to be further north than previous guidance. The LLJ continues to be
screaming its presence over the state with wind speeds of 70 knots,
providing ample shear into the setup. Considering that instability
is the parameter I was least confident on yesterday, I would say
that the severe threat overall has increased. This is reflected by
the enhanced risk now touching portions of Humphreys, Perry, and
Wayne counties this afternoon and evening. Main impacts I am
concerned about would be damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH possible
and tornadoes. These would be greatest in any discrete cells that
form in the warm sector ahead of the cold front this evening, but we
cannot rule out QLCS tornadoes with such a stout cold front
approaching a favorable environment. Expect for the severe weather
to begin in the west around 4PM, and exiting middle Tennessee in the
early morning hours Sunday. With a nocturnal severe threat, remember
to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and be weather aware.

Another layer of complexity to this threat today is the flooding
risk. The moist airmass continues to crank out rainfall totals
exceeding expectations this morning, with some locations in the
north already receiving 3 inches of precipitation. As the front
wobbles, highest QPF will shift to the northwestern area of middle
Tennessee. Rainfall totals in this area are expected to be in the
range of 5 to 7 inches, with areas north of I-40 looking at 3 to 5
inches of accumulation. The remaining areas south of I-40 can expect
1 to 3 inches of rainfall. We already have several flash flood and
flood products out this morning, and expect to continue to be
issuing those. Remember in flooding, if you encounter areas of
moving or standing water on your commute, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
Rainfall should dwindle as the cold front pushes through Tennessee
tonight into early Sunday.

Behind this stout cold front, temperatures will fall so rapidly that
it is possible to see some flurries or wintry mix with wrap-around
moisture after the rain has passed. We are not expecting any
accumulations or impacts with this wintry precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

We will (thankfully) have an opportunity to dry out into mid week
with quiet weather but chilly temperatures with highs in the 30s and
40s. Our next chance for precipitation comes in the form of wintry
precipitation mid-week. Guidance continues to come into agreement
about the potential for accumulating snowfall in middle Tennessee
next week,  with another cold front that will plunge our
temperatures even further below normal. In regards to the snow,
confidence is low in specifics currently, so stay tuned to the
forecast as it becomes more clear in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

LIFR/IFR conditions expected across the area with moderate to
heavy rain. There will be some breaks for BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV this
afternoon when MVFR conditions could occur. These will be short
lived.

A strong cold front will push through middle TN this evening and
overnight. LLWS has been mentioned in the TAFs along with winds
gusts to 25-30 kts. Winds will start out southerly and veer to the
northwest as the cold front approaches by 16/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  37  45  23 / 100 100  10   0
Clarksville    64  33  38  21 / 100 100  10   0
Crossville     59  34  51  19 /  80 100  40   0
Columbia       67  35  46  23 /  80 100  10   0
Cookeville     62  35  51  21 /  90 100  40   0
Jamestown      60  33  51  19 / 100 100  40   0
Lawrenceburg   66  37  48  23 /  60 100  10   0
Murfreesboro   67  36  49  22 /  90 100  10   0
Waverly        65  32  39  21 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
859 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     Flash Flood      5 WSW Gallatin          36.36N 86.53W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Trained Spotter

            Dry Fork Rd in Ashland City is flooded.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
901 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     Flash Flood      5 WSW Gallatin          36.36N 86.53W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Trained Spotter

            Lower Station Camp Rd from Long Hollow Pike
            to Big Station Camp[ Creek Road is closed
            due to flooding.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
911 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     Rain             5 NW Gallatin           36.44N 86.51W
02/15/2025  M1.55 Inch       Sumner             TN   Public

            Public report of 1.55 inches.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
914 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     Flood            3 N Lebanon             36.26N 86.33W
02/15/2025                   Wilson             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Rises on area
            River/Creek.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
915 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     Flood            5 SW Bethpage           36.43N 86.37W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Rises on Creeks.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     Flash Flood      7 NE Mount Juliet       36.28N 86.44W
02/15/2025                   Wilson             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Water rising at Double
            Log Cabin Rd @ Old Laguardo Rd E.

&&