Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

523 
WGUS54 KOHX 151403
FFWOHX
TNC125-147-161-151815-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250215T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
803 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

The National Weather Service in Nashville has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Montgomery County in middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Robertson County in middle Tennessee...
  Stewart County in middle Tennessee...

* Until 1215 PM CST.

* At 803 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clarksville, Dover, Big Rock, Adams, Cumberland City, Woodlawn, 
  Palmyra, Indian Mound and Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8794 3666 8785 3663 8785 3663 8784
      3664 8707 3643 8708 3646 8712 3644 8715
      3643 8715 3638 8793

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Mueller

213 
WGUS74 KOHX 151543
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
943 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

TNC125-147-161-151815-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250215T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Montgomery TN-Robertson TN-Stewart TN-
943 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR MONTGOMERY, NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON AND STEWART 
COUNTIES...

At 943 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 
and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 
to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clarksville, Dover, Big Rock, Adams, Cumberland City, Woodlawn, 
  Palmyra, Indian Mound and Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8794 3666 8785 3663 8785 3663 8784
      3664 8707 3643 8708 3646 8712 3644 8715
      3643 8715 3638 8793

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Mueller

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

- Significant flooding is expected today, particularly across
  northwest Middle Tennessee. River flooding and flash flooding
  are likely.

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through
  tonight. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threats.
  Severe threat is greatest for areas west of I-24.

- Temperatures fall well below-normal next week with snow possible
  during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 144 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Today will be a very active weather day across Middle Tennessee.
Rain and thunderstorms have entered extreme northwest middle TN
this morning and this will be the start of numerous hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall over that area. A large temperature
inversion noted at 850mb on the 00Z sounding shows warm air
advection has started ushering warm, moist air into the area,
setting the stage for both a flood and severe thunderstorm risk
today.

Flooding: 00Z CAMs have shifted the axis of highest QPF values a bit
further southeast, showing potentially significant rainfall totals
of 5 to 7 inches over the northwest. There is a little bit of
variance amongst the models in the spatial extent of the swath of
highest QPF, but if you live in northwest Middle Tennessee,
really even in the upper left quadrant of the mid state, please
stay aware of your surroundings today, have multiple ways to
receive warnings, and if you encounter flood waters while driving,
TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! Rainfall amounts dwindle down as go
further southeast, with the rest of middle Tennessee getting
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches today.

Severe potential: A number of the 00Z CAMs have come in a bit more
bullish with instability. I am inclined to say the overall severe
threat has slightly increased if this remains the case. Looking at
soundings from the 00Z HRRR around 6 PM tonight, MUCAPE values are
around 600 J/Kg with SBCAPE around 200-300 J/Kg. Bulk shear is near
65 kts with storm relative helicity values over 500 m2/s2. All of
this would point a damaging wind and tornado risk. Most of the CAMs
keep convection confined to the QLCS only, but the HRRR does
populate a few discrete cells immediately ahead of the line. If
any outflows are able to kick out ahead of the main line and
there's enough instability, it is entirely possible that a few
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop. The tornado threat
would likely be greater in discrete cells with more of a damaging
wind risk with the QLCS. As of now, it looks like the main line
will cross the Tennessee River sometime after 7 to 8 PM and work
east through the area, exiting around midnight. Areas generally
west of I-24 have the greatest chance of seeing severe impacts,
both with the line and if any cells develop ahead of the line.
Given the curved hodographs, abundant shear, and the possibility
of increased instability, the primary hazards within the line will
be damaging winds with the chance for embedded tornadoes along
the leading edge of the line.

Behind the front, winds will increase due to a tight pressure
gradient moving over the area. Areas along the Cumberland Plateau
could see gusts up to 40mph overnight into Monday. As such, we
have issued a wind advisory for the Cumberland Plateau that will
begin at midnight tonight and go through noon Sunday.

Temperatures will drop back well below-normal behind the front.
As the surface low exits off to the northeast, some lingering
wrap-around moisture could squeeze out a few snow showers, mainly
over our northeast counties on Sunday afternoon. No accumulation
is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 144 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

We will have a small window of time to dry out the remainder of
Sunday through most of Tuesday. Models are picking up on another
deep trough setting up across that west that could bring our next
precipitation chances to the area, likely in the form of snow given
how cold temperatures will be. It is still far too early to talk
amounts, but there has been a consistent signal amongst the GFS,
Euro, and Canadian that we will likely see snow by the middle of
next week. Temperatures in the extended will be as much as 20
degrees below normal with highs in the 20s/30s and overnight lows
in the teens to single digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Wind profiles are showing 2kft winds blowing around 45 knots out
of the south. This is likely occuring over all sites, so mentioned
LLWS at least until rains move into terminals. Surface winds are
expected to gust out of the south for much of the day. Showers
will persist through mid morning, then become scattered and less
likely in the afternoon. A line of showers and storms will move
from west to east after 00z, bringing increased wind gusts and
heavy rain to all terminals...though this line may not be to CSV
until after the taf period ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  39  48  24 / 100 100  40   0
Clarksville    64  35  40  21 / 100 100  20   0
Crossville     59  36  53  20 /  90 100  60   0
Columbia       67  37  48  23 /  90 100  20   0
Cookeville     62  36  53  22 / 100 100  60   0
Jamestown      60  35  54  20 / 100 100  70   0
Lawrenceburg   66  37  51  23 /  80 100  20   0
Murfreesboro   67  37  51  22 /  90 100  40   0
Waverly        65  33  41  22 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Whitehead