Wind Advisory 5, NWS Morristown, TN

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Anderson County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Polk County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

788 
WWUS74 KMRX 152037
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
337 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-161000-
/O.CON.KMRX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Coker Creek, Doeville, Shady Valley,
Hampton, Citico, Cades Cove, Neva, Mountain City, Gatlinburg,
Turtletown, Big Frog Mountain, Hartford, Unicoi, Limestone Cove,
Cedar Creek, Ducktown, Laurel Bloomery, Trade, Erwin, and Elkmont
337 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 70 mph 
  expected at times over some of the higher elevations and foothills.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161000-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0005.250216T0500Z-250216T1700Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Melvine, Jefferson City, Alpha, Seymour,
Mount Crest, Jellico, Palio, Oneida, Hiawasse Dam, La Follette,
Pine Orchard, Morristown, Royal Blue, Evensville, Appalachia,
Greeneville, Caryville, Abingdon, Topton, Bean Station, Lone Oak,
Fincastle, Wise, Hiltons, Huntsville, Archville, Honaker,
Russellville, Harriman, Pardee, Kingsport, Clairfield, Big Stone
Gap, Parksville, Hayesville, Old Washington, Smokey Junction,
Shooting Creek, Signal Mountain, Jasper, Rockwood, Mooresburg,
Oak Ridge, Pigeon Forge, Sharps Chapel, Lone Mountain, Bradbury,
Bearden, Bybee, Violet, Springdale, Eagle Furnace, Pikeville,
Clear Water, Cleveland, Strawberry Plains, South Pittsburg,
Elgin, Unaka, Paulette, Tusquitee, Dentville, Brayton, Norma,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Powells Crossroads, Norton, Castlewood,
Fairview, Elizabethton, Dayton, Rosedale, Old Cumberland,
Knoxville, Hansonville, Sweetwater, Martin Springs, Sneedville,
Oliver Springs, Reliance, Lebanon, Howard Quarter, Luttrell,
Slick Rock, Big Spring, Grandview, Benton, Norris Lake,
Monteagle, Treadway, Sandlick, Whitwell, Lake Forest, Dandridge,
Brasstown, Big South Fork National, White Oak, Bristol VA,
Johnson City, Marble, Maynardville, Coeburn, Cagle, Benhams,
Chattanooga, Andrews, Maryville, Harrisburg, Sevierville, Bullet
Creek, Arthur, South Holston Dam, Conasauga, Evanston, Chestnut
Hill, High Point, Rose Hill, White Pine, Newport, Tasso, Lookout
Mountain, Athens, Etowah, Kyles Ford, Murphy, Cartwright, Elk
Valley, Spring City, Haletown (Guild), Lenoir City, Alcoa, Dye,
Dunlap, Petros, Kingston, Loudon, McMahan, Bristol TN, Clinton,
Kodak, Happy Valley, and Madisonville
337 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 /237 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ 
TONIGHT TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to noon EST /11 AM 
  CST/ Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CD

246 
WWUS74 KMRX 160839
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
339 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-161700-
/O.CON.KMRX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-East Polk-
Including the cities of Gatlinburg, Elkmont, Shady Valley, Erwin,
Limestone Cove, Turtletown, Ducktown, Trade, Doeville, Hartford,
Coker Creek, Big Frog Mountain, Unicoi, Neva, Cades Cove, Cedar
Creek, Citico, Mountain City, Hampton, and Laurel Bloomery
339 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 70 mph 
  expected at times over some of the higher elevations and foothills.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, 
  Johnson, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast 
  Greene, Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and 
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution 
if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161700-
/O.CON.KMRX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Lone Oak, Old Washington, Maynardville,
Tusquitee, Jefferson City, Andrews, Haletown (Guild), Clinton,
Strawberry Plains, Bearden, Unaka, Oneida, Petros, Kingston,
Cartwright, Harrogate-Shawanee, Evensville, Alpha, Wise,
Cleveland, Pikeville, Rose Hill, Newport, Kodak, Topton, Mount
Crest, Grandview, Chattanooga, Marble, Elk Valley, Smokey
Junction, Spring City, McMahan, Greeneville, Tasso, Bean Station,
Johnson City, Coeburn, Harriman, Archville, Morristown, High
Point, Castlewood, Hansonville, South Holston Dam, Old
Cumberland, Hiltons, Bybee, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood, South
Pittsburg, Huntsville, Pardee, Evanston, Caryville, White Pine,
Treadway, Seymour, Benton, Clairfield, Parksville, Knoxville,
Violet, Honaker, Loudon, Shooting Creek, Dunlap, Russellville,
Murphy, Pigeon Forge, Reliance, Sevierville, Sneedville, Benhams,
Big Stone Gap, Monteagle, Sharps Chapel, Mooresburg, Bristol VA,
Springdale, Lake Forest, Martin Springs, La Follette, Royal Blue,
Alcoa, Jellico, Pine Orchard, Lenoir City, Howard Quarter,
Dandridge, Big South Fork National, White Oak, Maryville,
Hayesville, Fairview, Bullet Creek, Norma, Bradbury, Lone
Mountain, Palio, Conasauga, Brasstown, Slick Rock, Elizabethton,
Etowah, Powells Crossroads, Lookout Mountain, Clear Water,
Brayton, Sandlick, Happy Valley, Luttrell, Oliver Springs,
Jasper, Fincastle, Appalachia, Rosedale, Abingdon, Big Spring,
Dayton, Sweetwater, Paulette, Lebanon, Harrisburg, Dentville,
Norton, Whitwell, Dye, Elgin, Oak Ridge, Kyles Ford, Bristol TN,
Cagle, Signal Mountain, Hiawasse Dam, Chestnut Hill,
Madisonville, Arthur, Melvine, Norris Lake, Athens, and Kingsport
339 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 /239 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ 
TODAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and 
  southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

TD

075 
WWUS74 KMRX 161655
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1155 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-162100-
/O.EXP.KMRX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WI.Y.0006.250216T1655Z-250216T2100Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-
Including the cities of Cedar Creek, Coker Creek, Erwin,
Hartford, Cades Cove, Laurel Bloomery, Unicoi, Elkmont, Hampton,
Mountain City, Limestone Cove, Neva, Citico, Doeville,
Gatlinburg, Trade, and Shady Valley
1155 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, Johnson, 
  Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, 
  Southeast Monroe, and Unicoi Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

TNZ102-161800-
/O.EXP.KMRX.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
East Polk-
Including the cities of Ducktown, Big Frog Mountain, and
Turtletown
1155 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

While gusty winds will continue into the afternoon hours, warning 
level winds are no longer expected.

$$

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067>071-073-081>086-
098>101-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161800-
/O.EXP.KMRX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-250216T1700Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-
Jefferson-Northwest Blount-North Sevier-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-
Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
Including the cities of Dentville, Cagle, Violet, Rosedale,
Athens, Alpha, Harrogate-Shawanee, Evensville, Knoxville, Bristol
TN, Chestnut Hill, Kodak, Spring City, Seymour, Elk Valley, Bean
Station, Harrisburg, Monteagle, South Holston Dam, Shooting
Creek, Melvine, Dye, Slick Rock, Bristol VA, Petros, Strawberry
Plains, Smokey Junction, Sneedville, Cartwright, Tasso, Jasper,
Clear Water, Luttrell, Jellico, Norma, Bybee, Treadway, Arthur,
Newport, Archville, Johnson City, Honaker, McMahan, Jefferson
City, Reliance, Elgin, Parksville, Norris Lake, Pine Orchard,
Tusquitee, Madisonville, Maryville, Lake Forest, Brayton, Howard
Quarter, South Pittsburg, Rockwood, Dandridge, Fairview,
Conasauga, Oneida, Old Cumberland, Big Spring, Whitwell, Bullet
Creek, Sevierville, Fincastle, Benton, Rose Hill, Paulette,
Harriman, Hiawasse Dam, Unaka, Martin Springs, Sharps Chapel,
Hiltons, Pigeon Forge, Norton, Loudon, Haletown (Guild), La
Follette, Bearden, Lookout Mountain, Abingdon, Lone Oak,
Grandview, Appalachia, Happy Valley, Hansonville, White Oak,
Mount Crest, Palio, Etowah, Cleveland, Coeburn, Castlewood,
Russellville, Dunlap, Oliver Springs, Powells Crossroads,
Pikeville, Alcoa, Kyles Ford, Sandlick, Clinton, Maynardville,
Benhams, Elizabethton, Mooresburg, Clairfield, Big Stone Gap,
Lebanon, Springdale, Lenoir City, Signal Mountain, Pardee,
Hayesville, Lone Mountain, Royal Blue, Greeneville, Topton,
Morristown, Old Washington, Oak Ridge, Dayton, Sweetwater, Big
South Fork National, Caryville, Huntsville, High Point, Evanston,
Murphy, Bradbury, Wise, Marble, Andrews, Brasstown, Kingsport,
Kingston, White Pine, Chattanooga, and Eagle Furnace
1155 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 /1055 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY...

Gusty winds will continue well into the afternoon hours, but 
advisory level winds are no longer expected.

$$

CD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1226 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Clouds are increasing, and the biggest change with this update
will be to show a faster cloud increase based on current satellite
trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks reasonable overall including
with timing the arrival of the precipitation. The high wind
warning and flood watch will remain as they are for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Key Messages:

1. High winds in the mountains and foothills starting tonight and
continuing through Saturday.

2. Showers spread into the area Saturday morning with highest
rain amounts through the day near the KY border.

Discussion:

Nearly zonal flow in the upper levels and high pressure near the
surface continues overnight. Getting into a more active pattern
tomorrow as a deep trough over TX/OK moves eastward. At the
surface, low pressure over TX/OK will bring a warm front through
our region tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Rain will move
in from the southwest in the morning hours before sunrise in most
locations. This wave of rain will slowly lift northward close to
the KY border by early afternoon. Isolated showers will be
possible behind this wave of rain but most locations will probably
stay fairly dry late afternoon through early evening.

The highest rain totals with the first wave of rain will be in the
Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia with about one
inch of rain expected through sunset. Elsewhere, less than half an
inch is expected.

Southerly winds will increase ahead of the low. In the Tennessee
Valley gusts up to 30 mph will be possible tomorrow. A High Wind
Warning is in effect starting shortly after midnight tonight in
the East Tennessee mountains and foothills. Winds will likely be
in the 40 to 50 mph range tonight and tomorrow (Sat) with winds
peaking higher tomorrow evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Key Messages:

1. A threat for severe storms late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning along the southern Cumberland Plateau and southeast TN.
Damaging winds are the main concern, but a low-end tornado risk
exists in the southern plateau and southern Tennessee valley area.

2. A much colder airmass arrives Sunday with light snow showers
across northeast TN, southwest VA, and the southern Appalachians.
Snowfall amounts look to be light.

3. Very cold temperatures next week with increasing chance for
another winter system developing to the south with the potential to
bring some snowfall to a significant portion of the area around
Wednesday.

Discussion:

Saturday night into Sunday Morning:

Starting off Saturday evening will be a brief break in the shower
and storm chances as we reside in the dry air between the two fronts
moving through. The threat for severe weather will become the main
weather concern heading into the overnight hours with an incoming
front and line of thunderstorms. This dynamic low will bring in
unstable air and a very strong low level jet out of the
south/southwest overnight. Expect widespread storms off to our west
starting early in the day Sunday and continuing throughout the day
as they progresses eastward towards the southern Appalachians. CAMs
are starting to get a hold of this time frame and is helping to
increase confidence on the timing of the QLCS and possible
supercells ahead of the main line. Expect the storms to move onto
the Cumberland Plateau starting around 05-07z (11pm - 12am EST),
moving into the Valley around 08-10z (3am - 5am EST), and the
leading edge of the storms pushing east of the Appalachians by 12z
(7am EST). The main area of concern for this overnight convection
will be the possible isolated cells ahead of the main line, and the
leading edge of the QLCS bringing severe thunderstorms. With the
overnight timing of this system the severe threat is low, but cannot
completely rule out damaging winds or tornadoes.

In the southern Appalachians the area with the highest risk will be
the Cumberland Plateau down into southeast TN where the earlier
arrival time of the storms means they have a better chance to tap
into the more unstable atmosphere. Forecast soundings and CAMs show
there will be minimal instability, but even if we get just 250+ J/kg
historical analysis shows this is enough to sustain severe
thunderstorms during the winter months. The biggest driving factor
for severe weather will be the extremely stout LLJ leading to 0-1km
shear of over 40 knots, and deep layer shear in excess of 50 knots,
and SRH over 300 m2/s2. Any storms that are able to grow strong
enough to tap into this environment, or the more likely scenario of
storms persisting in strength out of Middle TN and AL, could produce
severe weather. Most likely severe weather threat will be damaging
straight line winds along the leading edge of the line of storms as
they could tap into the core of the 60+ knot jet and bring those
winds down to the surface. In addition we cannot rule out the
possibility of a storm ahead of the main line become a super cell,
or a quick spin up of a QLCS tornado. Again the highest risk area
for this occurring is along the Cumberland Plateau and southeast TN
in that 05-08z (11pm - 3am) time frame. During winter you can never
rule out severe size hail, but this is the less likely compared to
straight line winds and tornadoes. As this line of storms progresses
eastward the severe threat should diminish quickly as it moves into
more stable air closer to the Appalachian Mountains.

The other weather types to be aware of with this event will be
flooding and continuation of the high winds in the Appalachians.
The showers earlier in the day on Saturday will be important to keep
an eye on as they could set the stage for where the greatest flood
risk is during the overnight storms. Highest risk area for flooding
continues to be along the Cumberland Plateau into southwest Virginia
as they'll likely see the most rainfall earlier on Saturday. HOWEVER
the overnight storms Saturday into Sunday will likely produce
extremely heavy rainfall for possibly 1-3 hours in some locations,
seeing a quick 1-2" or more of rain in these storms. These areas
that see extended periods of rain could see flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas overnight. Night time flooding is hard
to recognize and never drive through flooded roads!

The winds in the southern Appalachian mountains will remain strong
overnight as the low level jet moves through and turns a bit more
southerly which would lead to an enhancement of the mountain wave
winds in the typically windy locations. The high wind warning is
already in effect for these areas and the winds gusting to around
60 mph still looks reasonable for this time frame.

Rest of the week:

Once this front moves through we'll turn quickly from thunderstorms
to possibly some wintry weather on the backside of the front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Sunday as a cold
Canadian air mass begins to dive southward. In this northwest flow
regime we could see the typical scenario where low level moisture
and clouds get hung up in the valley and the cold temperatures
squeeze out the low level moisture to produce light snowfall across
northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and the Appalachians. At
this time any snow accumulations are expected to be light with the
fairly warm days ahead of the front will allow the ground to melt
some of the initial snow. But grassy and elevated surfaces could see
a dusting of snow, and higher amounts are expected in the southern
Appalachian mountains.

We'll get a break from the rain and snow chances for the first half
of the week with drier air and more zonal flow in place. Certainty
in the forecast begins to wane once we get to our next event with
another round of more widespread and heavier snow looking possible.
Another trough will be moving through the northern states around
this time and really start to drop temperatures for the second half
of the week. Increasing confidence that we'll see some abnormally
cold temperatures starting Thursday morning and continuing into the
weekend. If the current forecast verifies we'll likely see the
return of teens or single digit temperatures on the coldest morning,
likely Friday morning. Depending on the track of the trough/low we
could see incoming precipitation at the same time that temperatures
are falling leading to snowfall accumulations across the entire
region, and possibly down into GA. Being this far out snowfall
amounts are extremely uncertain, but seeing over 1 inch of snow
across the central and northern valley is definitely not out of the
question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

An approaching storm system will bring a complex weather pattern
to the area tonight through tomorrow. First, LLWS will develop
late tonight/early morning at all sites, and persist through the
day as the TN Valley will remain under an inversion with a strong
southerly jet around 2 kft. VFR conditions now will drop to MVFR
at CHA as moisture spreads in from the south, then drop to IFR by
the afternoon. The downslope winds are expected to keep VFR cigs
at TYS and TRI, although TYS could get near MVFR levels briefly
with a passing shower; will include this as a PROB30. TRI should
have stronger downslope effects, but has a higher chance of a
shower that may drop vis briefly near MVFR levels in the late
morning/early afternoon. From the mid afternoon through evening,
conditions should remain steady-state with LLWS continuing, and
IFR cigs at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  48  58  26 /  60 100  30   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  48  57  25 /  90 100  80  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  45  56  24 /  90 100  70  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  48  56  23 /  90  90 100  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ early this morning through
     Sunday morning for Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-
     Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie.

     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Flood Watch from 4 AM EST early this morning through Sunday
     morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Wise.

&&

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
344 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-152045-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
344 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 /244 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The potential exists for significant flooding through the
weekend. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected from early
Saturday morning through Saturday night, with heavy rainfall
rates possible in thunderstorms Saturday night. Additional
rainfall in excess of 2 inches is expected in and near the watch
area through Sunday morning. Stream and river flooding, flooded
roads, as well as mud and rock slides are all possible.

Strong winds are possible across the East Tennessee, southwest
Virginia, and southwest North Carolina mountains from late tonight flooding
through the weekend. Multiple rounds through Sunday morning.
Mountain wave high winds are likely across the Tennessee mountains
and adjacent foothills, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are
possible. This could cause downed trees and power outages due to
saturated grounds.

Southern portions of East Tennessee, including the Chattanooga
area, are highlighted in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms
Saturday night. Damaging winds will be the main threat from
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Detailed reports of flooding or severe thunderstorms this weekend
will be appreciated.