Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Through Wednesday Night...

The upper trough over the eastern CONUS will lift northeast,
followed by an upper ridge building over the southeast states
through midweek. We resume a diurnal pattern through the near
term with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to occur
across the northern half of the forecast area this afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon, with numerous showers and storms across the
southern half near a developing seabreeze. With strong insolation
and surface heating today, we are anticipating an afternoon
environment with significant MLCAPE values ranging from 3,000 to
4,000j/kg. Therefore, a few of the stronger pulse-type storms this
afternoon may produce gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and hail up to
one-half inch in diameter. Frequent lightning and the threat of
localized flooding remains. A High Rip Current risk through this
afternoon will settle to Low midweek.

High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from 87 to 92
degrees. Low temperatures tonight should be between 66 to 72
degrees inland, with middle 70s along the coast. /22

Thursday Through Monday...

Unsettled summer like pattern looks to prevail as we approach the
weekend with broad southwesterly flow across the area. An upper
level low will likely get squished between two large highs in an
omega block over Texas keeping us on the soggy east side. As we
approach the end of the week and into the weekend, a stalled
surface boundary that has plagued us the front half of the week
will have mixed out leading to a more traditional summertime
pattern with storms developing along the advancing seabreeze and
remnant boundaries. Storms will likely be a little more widespread
than a typical summer day as some upper shortwave troughs will
likely progress through the southwesterly flow and the presence of
the weak upper level low centered to our west. PWATS will be in
the 1.5 to 2 inch range each day allowing for efficient rain
processes with any storms. While a more focused heavy rainfall
event doesn't look likely, continued rounds of rain throughout the
week could result in localized flash flooding. Temperatures will
continue to be on the warm side with highs in the 90s and with all
the moisture, do not expect any relief from the mugginess this
week. BB/8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Generally VFR flight category prevails outside of any showers and
storms this afternoon. Temporary reductions in ceiling and
visibility can be expected underneath any given storm. Expect VFR
flight category to prevail tonight into Wednesday morning. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow today will become light
southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain high through Saturday.
Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may contain
waterspouts in the late night/early morning period. Otherwise, no
impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
being possible near thunderstorms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  88  72  88  74  88  74  88 /  30  70  20  70  30  80  30  90
Pensacola   75  87  76  88  77  87  77  85 /  40  70  30  70  40  80  60  90
Destin      78  89  78  89  79  88  78  88 /  40  70  30  70  50  80  60  90
Evergreen   69  91  70  91  71  91  72  89 /  20  60  20  60  30  80  30  80
Waynesboro  67  91  69  91  70  91  71  89 /  10  40  10  60  30  70  20  80
Camden      66  88  68  89  70  89  71  87 /  20  40  10  50  30  60  30  80
Crestview   70  91  70  92  71  90  72  88 /  30  80  20  70  30  90  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ203-101845-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
115 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Jay, or 12 miles southeast of Century, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Santa Rosa
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8724 3091 8718 3094 8688 3067 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 280DEG 9KT 3083 8713

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
120 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ263-101845-
Mobile Central AL-
120 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Tanner Williams, or 10 miles west of Tillmans Corner.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tanner Williams and Mobile Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8841 3066 8841 3074 8840 3073 8818
      3052 8822 3051 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 282DEG 4KT 3064 8833

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

MSZ076-079-101915-
Greene MS-George MS-
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN GEORGE AND SOUTHWESTERN
GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Lucedale, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8858 3086 8852 3088 8883 3091 8884
      3091 8883 3100 8884 3103 8884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 257DEG 6KT 3096 8875

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-101915-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
150 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Tanner Williams, or 16 miles northeast of Escatawpa,
moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tanner Williams and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8841 3074 8854 3077 8855 3090 8829
      3060 8824 3060 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 248DEG 6KT 3071 8844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

FLZ201-203-102000-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SANTA ROSA AND NORTH
CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Molino, or 9 miles south of Century, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Molino, Point Baker, and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8740 3096 8742 3088 8689 3064 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 274DEG 11KT 3083 8726

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
221 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ261-MSZ079-102000-
Mobile Inland AL-George MS-
221 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MOBILE AND
NORTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Wilmer, or 11 miles east of Lucedale, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chunchula, Gulfcrest, and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 8854 3100 8848 3100 8842 3111 8843
      3111 8833 3112 8832 3086 8808 3080 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 233DEG 10KT 3088 8840

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM