Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...Through Wednesday Night...

Weak upper troughing transits the region the rest of this evening
with transient upper ridging moving in its wake. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms gradually wane after sunset bringing relatively
drier conditions to the forecast area through tonight. Any lingering
showers or storms should shift to be just offshore through the
overnight hours, beginning to shift back near shore by daybreak.
Once again, afternoon showers and storms can be expected Wednesday,
mainly in the vicinity of the seabreeze boundary that advances
inland. Weak shear and ample instability will allow for the more
traditional pulse type strong thunderstorms with small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall. Can't rule out on or two storms during
the period temporarily pulsing to severe criteria with damaging
winds and large hail. Temperatures remain warm during the day in the
upper 80's to near 90 degrees with overnight lows falling into the
upper 60's over the interior and lower to middle 70's nearer the
coast each night. A Moderate risk of rip currents quickly becomes a
low risk late tonight into Wednesday. MM/25

...Thursday through Tuesday...

A series of upper level shortwave troughs moving from over the
Southern Plains get a bit of a northward deflection over the
Southeast from an upper ridge initially stretching west over the
northern Gulf coast/northern Gulf. Guidance varies with the strength
of the shortwaves and their effects on the upper ridge. The ECMWF is
advertising the upper ridge allowing weaker shortwaves to pass
closer to the northcentral and northeastern Gulf coast, along with
being a bit slower, whilst the GFS deflects the energy further
north, along with being a bit faster. The GDPS lies in the middle.
The ensembles are more in agreement, keeping an upper trough over
and just west of the Lower Mississippi River with the upper ridge
centered over the northern Florida/southeast Georgia, with a bit of
an eastward shift as the forecast moves into the middle of the
coming week. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast sees
a bit of a southward shift, but overall maintains a southerly deep
layer flow, maintaining a moist airmass over the southeast.
Precipitable h20 values average in the 1.8"-2.2" range. Have went
with the ensembles for the forecast.

Guidance is indicating the continuation of the summer pattern of
convection, showers and thunderstorms developing inland during the
day, peaking in the mid afternoon into the evening over land areas.
The convection shifts offshore overnight, then begins to work its
way inshore the next day. With MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg and
DCapes in the 900-1200J/kg, strong to marginally severe storms are
possible in the heat of the afternoon, with downburst winds and
small hail possible. With high moisture levels allowing for
efficient rainers, ponding of water in poor drainage issues may be
an issue in some localities.

Seasonable to a bit above seasonal temperatures are expected through
the weekend into the coming week. High temperatures in the mid 80s
to low 90s are expected. Heat Indices slowly rise from the 98 to 102
degree range Thursday to 100-106 degrees on Tuesday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80
south are expected through the Extended.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday through Friday becomes a moderate
this weekend into the coming week as a more organized onshore flow
bring increasing swell to area beaches combines with an tidal range.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Generally VFR flight category prevails outside of any showers and
storms this afternoon. Temporary reductions in ceiling and
visibility can be expected underneath any given storm. Expect VFR
flight category to prevail tonight into Wednesday morning. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Light to moderate southwesterly flow this afternoon turns southerly
to southeasterly through the remainder of the week. Expect shower
and thunderstorm chances to remain high through the weekend.
Waterspouts are possible in any storms during the overnight into
early morning hours each day. Locally higher winds and seas are
possible near any storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  72  88  73  88  74  88 /  40  70  30  70  20  80  20  90
Pensacola   75  87  76  87  77  87  77  86 /  50  70  40  70  30  80  40  90
Destin      77  89  76  89  78  88  78  88 /  50  70  40  60  40  80  50  80
Evergreen   71  90  70  91  71  92  72  88 /  30  50  20  70  20  80  20  80
Waynesboro  70  90  69  89  71  91  71  90 /  30  30  10  60  20  70  10  80
Camden      69  87  69  88  71  89  71  87 /  20  30  10  50  30  70  20  80
Crestview   72  91  72  92  71  91  72  88 /  30  70  20  80  20  90  30  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
337 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ056-059-060-102130-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-Escambia AL-
337 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND WEST CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Castleberry, or 8 miles south of Evergreen, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Castleberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 8659 3119 8695 3134 8707 3152 8679
      3152 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 247DEG 15KT 3131 8694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ057-058-102145-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
353 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BUTLER AND WEST CENTRAL
CRENSHAW COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Greenville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 8657 3152 8664 3178 8685 3189 8672
      3168 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 310DEG 19KT 3178 8673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ057-058-102200-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
414 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND WEST
CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Greenville, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8664 3192 8655 3185 8630 3168 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 303DEG 5KT 3184 8653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
430 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ057-102215-
Butler AL-
430 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Georgiana, or 10 miles southwest of Greenville, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana and McKenzie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 8650 3161 8650 3152 8665 3152 8670
      3175 8685 3184 8672 3168 8645 3166 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 315DEG 11KT 3174 8675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
437 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ054>057-102215-
Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
437 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER...
NORTHEASTERN MONROE...SOUTH CENTRAL WILCOX AND NORTHEASTERN CONECUH
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Vredenburgh to 7 miles
west of Georgiana. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana, McKenzie, Beatrice, and Vredenburgh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8725 3163 8660 3152 8667 3152 8670
      3148 8670 3135 8679 3187 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 311DEG 22KT 3187 8727 3162 8687

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

ALZ054-102230-
Wilcox AL-
443 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WILCOX COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Orrville, or 16 miles north of Camden, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Wilcox
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8739 3222 8738 3220 8736 3220 8733
      3214 8728 3215 8727 3214 8725 3212 8726
      3210 8723 3208 8719 3205 8718 3205 8712
      3198 8724 3220 8745 3224 8741 3224 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 311DEG 16KT 3223 8732

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM