Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Rest of today through Tonight...

Unsettled weather continues across the area through tonight with
several shortwaves transiting the area embedded within broader
upper troughing. A stalled surface boundary is evident this
morning based on surface observations and visible satellite
imagery stretching from the FL panhandle then northwest across
southwestern Alabama into interior southeast Mississippi. To the
north of this, surface dewpoints and instability are a bit muted
compared to the airmass to the south of the boundary going from
mid/upper 60's dews to lower to middle 70's dews. This presently
denotes where the instability gradient lies and where surface
based activity can be expected to the south. As the day progresses
this boundary does wash out somewhat as areas to the north
recover and destabilize, however this boundary will still exist in
some shape and form allowing for a focus of convection later this
morning into the afternoon and evening hours.

It is likely there will be multiple rounds of storms during the
period, with isolated to scattered showers and storms still
possible in-between more robust rounds of convection across the
entire area. The first round looks to be late morning into the
afternoon hours as a remnant MCS pushes in from the northwest
across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama. This
feature will likely refire strong to potentially severe storms
over the aforementioned area as we head into the afternoon hours
when it interacts with the boundary. A second round may develop on
the tail end of the first round late afternoon into the evening
hours as the next shortwave moves overhead. Once again strong to
potentially severe storms is possible. Additionally, this second
round may be more impactful to very sensitive areas for heavy
rainfall in southwestern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle that
received a significant amount of rain last night. This may set the
stage for additional flash flooding with any storm that moves
overhead. Primary hazards with any severe storms will be strong to
damaging wind gusts, with large hail possible in any of the more
robust semi-discrete to discrete storms.

Temperatures warm into the upper 80's and lower 90's for most
locations before cooling into the upper 60's and lower 70's
tonight. A High risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday for
the Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25

Tuesday through Monday...
An upper level trough over the eastern Conus shifts north as an
upper ridge off the Florida Atlantic coast builds north-northwest
over the Southeast late Wednesday into Thursday. This upper ridge re-
enforces a surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf,
bringing a more organized south to southwesterly flow, also slowing
a weak cold front as it moves south over the Southeast in the same
time period. High moisture levels (precipitable h20 levels of 1.9"-
2.1") shift south to over the southern half of forecast area
Wednesday. In combination with several passing weak shortwaves,
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected Tuesday with a drop Wednesday as a drier airmass pushes
south over the northern third of the forecast area. The convection
tapers down during the evening and into the overnight as the day's
heating is lost, shifting offshore over warm Gulf waters (water
temps in the low to mid 80s). Strong to severe storms are possible
each day, with MLCapes averaging around 2500J/kg range and DCapes
averaging in the 900-1200J/kg. Some models are advertising afternoon
SBCapes rising to near 4000J/kg. Winds shear remains meh, typical of
our summertime storms, so am not expecting organized storms.
Guidance is also consistent in the showers and thunderstorms
shifting offshore overnight, with greater instability over warmer
Gulf waters (water temps in the lower to mid 80s).

By Thursday, guidance is advertising the upper high becoming
centered over the northern Florida peninsula/Georgia, with a strong
upper level shortwave system passing over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley Sunday into Monday, shifting the upper high back south
to over the central Gulf/southern Florida. The surface ridge over
the northern Gulf shifts north over the Southeast, with Gulf
moisture moving back inland due to a more organized southerly flow
around the surface ridge (rising back to around 2"). PoPs rise back
to scattered to numerous for the weekend into the coming week, as
several weak shortwaves pass over or near the forecast area over the
weekend, and the stronger shortwave approaches from the west early
in the coming week.

High temperatures around seasonal Tuesday (86-90) rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s for Thursday and Friday with the upper high
closer to the forecast area, then drop into the upper 80s to around
90 for the rest of the forecast as the upper high moves away. Heat
indices rise into the 98-102 degree range for most of the forecast
area Thursday and Friday, remaining in that range as as moisture
levels increase over the weekend. Low temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s north of I-10, mid to upper 70s south Tuesday and
Wednesday nights creep up into the low to mid 70s inland from the
coast, upper 70s along the coast for the end of the week through the
weekend.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday decreases to a low risk by
Tuesday night, remaining so through mid week. A more organized
onshore flow over the weekend brings a return of a Moderate Risk of
rip currents for the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
forecast area through the afternoon and most of this evening. The
convection will shift offshore tonight, then move back onshore
Tuesday morning. General upper end MVFR/VFR conditions expected
outside of the convection, with drops in conditions to low end
MVFR along with locally variable winds in the convection likely.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may
contain waterspouts in the late night/early morning period.
Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds
and seas being possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  71  88  72  89  73  89 /  70  80  50  80  30  70  20  70
Pensacola   75  87  75  86  75  88  77  88 /  70  80  60  80  30  70  30  80
Destin      77  88  77  88  78  89  79  89 /  80  80  70  80  40  70  40  80
Evergreen   70  88  69  90  70  92  71  91 /  80  70  40  70  20  70  20  70
Waynesboro  69  87  67  88  69  91  70  91 /  70  70  20  60  20  60  20  70
Camden      69  85  66  88  69  89  70  89 /  80  60  20  50  20  60  30  60
Crestview   72  89  70  90  70  92  71  91 /  80  80  50  90  20  80  20  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-092300-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
535 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Wade, or 11 miles south of Lucedale, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tanner Williams.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8841 3074 8869 3083 8867 3092 8838
      3068 8834 3068 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 262DEG 15KT 3076 8863

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
539 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ261-MSZ079-092315-
Mobile Inland AL-George MS-
539 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MOBILE AND
NORTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Lucedale, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfcrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 8856 3099 8856 3100 8853 3100 8843
      3103 8843 3109 8822 3085 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 267DEG 22KT 3097 8849

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

ALZ059-060-FLZ203-205-100000-
Covington AL-Escambia AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
609 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Riverview, or 12 miles southeast of Brewton,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3079 8639 3093 8706 3113 8702
      3116 8638 3099 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 281DEG 39KT 3100 8691

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RD

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