Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Plains with upper
ridging along the East Coast. At the surface, a weak cold front
trails from its parent low over the TN Valley, southwestward into SE
TX. Closer to home, deep southwesterly flow will continue to filter
in moisture across the area, with PW values topping out near 2
inches which exceeds the 90th percentile. Given the moisture in
place and lingering outflow boundaries from earlier storms, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible through the predawn hours, though
our better rain chances will come later today.

A QLCS, currently moving across east Texas, will propagate to the
southeast over the next few hours. The current trajectory
suggests that this QLCS will move over the Gulf, with the northern
extent dissipating before it reaches the area. Meanwhile,
guidance is consistent on bringing a shortwave into the region
this morning, lifting northeast of the area by the afternoon. The
airmass will remain fairly unstable, as daytime heating allows
highs to warm into the upper 80s. As the shortwave moves through,
weak height falls will allow for lapse rates to steepen aloft,
lending upwards of 2000- 3000 sbcape. At the same time, a 30-40kt
low level jet will move across our northern counties, with 0-1 km
bulk shear increasing to 20-30 kts this afternoon. Given this set
up and the timing, confidence has increased on the threat for
severe thunderstorms across the area. Timing is a bit tricky;
however, based on current guidance, the better chance for severe
thunderstorms will generally be between 18Z and 02Z (1 pm to 9 pm)
when the better forcing aligns with the shear and instability.
Surface winds will remain from the south, with westerly flow
aloft. Thus, curved hodographs suggest a low end tornado threat,
along with the damaging straight line wind potential.

While our confidence in the setup has increased, there are still
some caveats to the threat for severe storms. The main source of
uncertainty is the lack of low level forcing. Without a defined
front moving through the area, and based on the current thinking
that the QLCS to our west dissipates, the main source of surface
lift will be outflow boundaries which are difficult to pinpoint.
Additionally, some guidance does suggest the influence of the
subtropical ridge to our southeast will suppress convection and
limit storm organization. That said, there's enough consensus to
continue the severe threat for the area today, with damaging
straight line winds, a tornado or two, and hail. The better chance
will be over the northern half of the area, where the better forcing
aloft exists, though the severe threat is for the whole area. Any
lingering storms should wind down this evening as we lose daytime
heating and the shortwave lifts out of the area.

The trough over the Plains will make very little progress through at
least Wednesday, with several shortwaves continuing to eject around
the base of the trough. This will keep rain chances high over the
next couple of days, though pinpointing the timing of storms is
challenging. Given the setup, we'll likely see another QLCS develop
to our west and then move through the area or generate an outflow
boundary for convective initiation to occur over the local area.
Either way, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be more southwesterly tomorrow,
so wind shear should be mainly unidirectional, suggesting more of
a straight line wind threat on Wednesday. /73

Thursday through Monday

An upper trof extending from the central Plains to across the Great
Lakes takes on a meridional orientation and amplifies over the
eastern CONUS through Friday. A weak and poorly defined surface trof
will be over the southern portion of the forecast area Thursday
morning and appears to drift a bit northward through the afternoon
before dissipating. A surface low located near Arkansas Thursday
morning lifts off to the northeastern states, and in the process
brings a cold front through the forecast area on Friday. A shortwave
trof embedded within the larger scale pattern will move across the
region on Thursday, and with the weak surface trof over the area and
plenty of deep layer moisture in place, have gone with mostly
categorical pops for the forecast area. Likely to categorical pops
follow for Friday as the cold front moves through, then dry
conditions are expected for Saturday. The large upper trof pattern
over the eastern states persists through Sunday then finally begins
to move off into the western Atlantic on Monday. A weak reinforcing
cold front moves into the area on Sunday and lingers into Monday,
which will support slight chance pops for both days. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period.
The exception will be as a line of thunderstorms enters the area.
These storms are expected to reach KMOB between 14-15Z and exit
KPNS by 19Z. Given some uncertainty as to whether this activity
will hold together, have opted to include a TEMPO group. If this
activity is able to hold together, it will likely limit
redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, there is
still a potential for isolated thunderstorms between 20Z and 02Z.
Given the uncertainty, no additional mention of TSRA is included
in the TAFs. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
Thursday, becoming westerly and then northerly Friday into the
weekend. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  71  87  70  84  69  84  62 /  70  30  70  40  80  50  70  20
Pensacola   87  74  87  74  84  73  84  66 /  60  20  60  40  80  60  70  30
Destin      87  76  88  76  86  75  85  68 /  40  20  50  40  70  60  70  40
Evergreen   87  67  89  68  85  67  83  59 /  70  40  70  40  80  60  70  20
Waynesboro  86  66  86  66  84  67  82  59 /  90  50  60  50  80  50  60  10
Camden      85  66  85  67  82  66  80  58 /  80  40  50  50  80  60  70  20
Crestview   90  69  90  69  87  68  85  60 /  50  20  70  30  80  60  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
752 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-271415-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
752 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE...NORTHERN PERRY...WAYNE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 750 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Lisman to 5 miles
northeast of Dexter. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gilbertown, Toxey, Clara, New Augusta, Richton, Lisman, Silas,
Pennington, Waynesboro, Butler, and Buckatunna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 8793 3230 8796 3228 8802 3216 8801
      3208 8804 3206 8812 3201 8812 3199 8807
      3199 8791 3108 8914 3143 8915 3143 8894
      3182 8894 3185 8864 3190 8847 3231 8842
      3231 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 308DEG 21KT 3211 8834 3114 8995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
911 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

ALZ051-053-054-271515-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Choctaw AL-
911 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW...NORTHERN
CLARKE AND WESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...

At 910 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles west of Linden to 6 miles southeast of
Putnam to 4 miles southeast of Silas. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Yellow Bluff, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Pine Hill, and Grove
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8738 3193 8745 3170 8768 3171 8838
      3196 8801 3199 8800 3199 8767 3200 8766
      3200 8762 3213 8762 3213 8752 3227 8752
      3227 8745
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 273DEG 17KT 3228 8785 3196 8794 3173 8826

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

95/DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
942 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

ALZ051-MSZ067-271530-
Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
942 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHOCTAW AND WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

At 941 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Rose Hill to Stafford
Springs to 3 miles southeast of Tuckers Crossing. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Clara, and Buckatunna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8832 3170 8844 3170 8847 3165 8846
      3154 8851 3152 8894 3182 8894 3184 8873
      3189 8848 3231 8842 3231 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 260DEG 29KT 3222 8894 3190 8893 3159 8906

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

95/DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1021 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ078-079-271600-
Stone MS-George MS-
1021 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GEORGE AND STONE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM CDT...

At 1021 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Perkinston, or 6 miles south of Wiggins, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston, and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8868 3074 8869 3073 8888 3067 8889
      3068 8920 3090 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 269DEG 22KT 3077 8912

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

95/DM