Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Models keep basically a repeating weather pattern in place for
the next couple of days, although the window for the most active
period rain-wise seems to be this afternoon.

Latest Ensembles and CAMS keep a stationary frontal boundary
lingering around central Florida today, with associated cyclogenesis
near Jacksonville. Day-1 Weather Prediction Center (WPC) outlook
highlights the whole SoFlo Atlantic metro area for potential heavy
rain and flash flooding, with a wide window of possible impacts from
8am through 8 pm. Similar to Sunday, both ensemble families and LPMM
6-hr precip products depict another line of broken showers with
embedded thunderstorms bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain,
frequent lightning and gusty winds. The presence of the lingering
boundary will again provide enhanced instability and steep-enough
lapse rates, which combined with 500 mb temps cooling down to around
-11C or -12C will result in increasing favorable conditions for
experiencing a few strong to severe storms. An interesting element
to follow will be the interaction of the predominantly westerly flow
in the morning vs the developing easterly sea breeze along the
Atlantic side. If the sea breeze is strong enough, it could result
in rounds of rain anchoring over some metro areas, which will
require very close monitoring for localized flooding and/or flash
flooding potential.

Although most of the day will remain cloudy with passing showers,
latest HREF/LPMM estimates suggest possible heavy precip rounds as
late as 8-9pm and right over the Miami-Dade metro areas, with
localized amounts upwards of 5-6 inches. This coincides with WPCs
outlook placing most of the eastern half of SoFlo under a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall through Tue/12Z, along with a 50% chance
of exceedance (50th percentile) of 2-3 inches, and a 10% chance of
exceedance (10th percentile) of 3-4 inches for that 24-hour period,
including the overnight hours into Tue morning.

Models suggest a possible break Tuesday after sunrise as latest
model sfc analyses push the aforementioned boundary further north
into the FL/GA border while breaking down.  However, enough
lingering deep moisture should remain in place for another round of
heavy showers and potential for localized flooding/flash flooding
for the late morning/afternoon hours. A few storms may become strong
or severe, with possible large hail, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

Despite the increased cloud cover and shower activity, afternoon
temperatures today are expected to again reach 90 over much of the
area, then cooling down into the low-mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Latest long range solutions keep abundant deep moisture over
SoFlo through the middle of the week, with scattered to numerous
showers and storms likely on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For the end of the work week and into the weekend, models depict a
gradual decrease in shower storm coverage as weak ridging tries to
establish over the west Atlantic, and with its associated ridge axis
extending into the northern half of the peninsula. This synoptic
setup will bring back generally SE winds through much of the long
term with speeds around 10 mph and afternoon periods of higher gusts
along the coasts. It will also keep most showers and thunderstorms
over inland areas of SoFlo. Model PWATs drop to around 1.5 inches
each afternoon, which could still support localized heavy rain.
Returning afternoon sea breeze boundaries will again become focal
points for deeper convection. However, with warmer 500mb
temperatures (-6C to -8C), and a more stable air mass, thunderstorm
potential will be more limited.

Temperatures will return to near or at normals with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area. Morning lows
will also remain near or at normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR likely this afternoon across the East Coast
terminals as rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms
move through. Made some edits to the previous forecast to account
for later start and duration of worst impacts. RA/SHRA could
persist overnight but impacts remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A stalled frontal boundary stalls just north of the coastal waters
will keep elevated chances for showers and storms through the middle
of the work week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3
feet or less through the forecast period and 2 feet or less over the
Gulf waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that
develops, which may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  73  82  76 /  90  80  90  80
West Kendall     90  71  83  73 /  90  90  90  80
Opa-Locka        91  73  84  75 /  90  80  90  70
Homestead        89  73  83  75 /  90  90  90  80
Fort Lauderdale  89  72  82  74 /  80  80  90  70
N Ft Lauderdale  89  72  82  74 /  90  80  90  70
Pembroke Pines   92  75  85  77 /  90  80  90  70
West Palm Beach  88  71  83  73 /  80  80  90  70
Boca Raton       91  71  84  73 /  90  80  90  70
Naples           87  72  84  73 /  80  80  90  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ070-021630-
Inland Collier County FL-
1200 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1200 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Orangetree to
Big Corkscrew Island to near Ave Maria. Movement was northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ave Maria, Immokalee, Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island, Corkscrew
Swamp Sanctuary, Bunker Hill, and Lake Trafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2642 8166 2642 8156 2650 8156 2651 8128
      2632 8128 2624 8142 2629 8157 2631 8165
      2632 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 243DEG 16KT 2631 8164 2637 8155 2629 8140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ATV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ066-070-021730-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Collier
and southeastern Hendry Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1247 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Hendry Correctional, or 12 miles east of
Ave Maria, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hendry Correctional and Sunniland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2624 8139 2640 8134 2646 8100 2621 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 262DEG 17KT 2632 8124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ071>074-021745-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 104 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of
Dade-Collier Training Airport to 11 miles west of Intersection Krome
And U.S. 27 to near Miccosukee Resort. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Weston, Doral, Hialeah Gardens, Medley,
Intersection Krome And U.S. 27, Pennsuco, and Tamiami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2608 8071 2614 8045 2599 8032 2577 8041
      2589 8067 2586 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 229DEG 24KT 2589 8076 2594 8062 2584 8046

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
111 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ066-070-071-021745-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
111 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Collier, southern Hendry and central Broward Counties through 145 PM
EDT...

At 111 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm 12 miles southeast of Hendry Correctional, or
23 miles southeast of Ave Maria, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Miccosukee Indian Reservation and Big Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2608 8113 2616 8119 2635 8102 2614 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 236DEG 12KT 2615 8112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
114 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ072-074-172-173-021745-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
114 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over North Miami Beach, or near Miami Gardens.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hollywood, Miramar, Hallandale, Miami Gardens, North Miami, North
Miami Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, Opa-Locka, West Park, Miami
Shores, Hard Rock Stadium, Golden Glades, Ojus, Westview, Pembroke
Park, Bay Harbor Islands, Biscayne Park, Bal Harbour, and Golden
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2590 8011 2589 8013 2591 8012 2593 8013
      2590 8013 2591 8014 2590 8014 2590 8015
      2589 8014 2587 8017 2590 8027 2604 8019
      2601 8011 2592 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 219DEG 1KT 2592 8018

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

FLZ074-173-021745-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 131 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Westview, or near Hialeah. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, North Miami, Doral, Hialeah Gardens, Opa-Locka, Miami
Springs, Miami Shores, El Portal, Medley, West Little River,
Gladeview, Westview, Liberty City, Miami International Airport,
Pinewood, Little Haiti, Marlins Park, Biscayne Park, and Virginia
Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2585 8017 2584 8017 2584 8018 2582 8018
      2581 8019 2580 8019 2577 8020 2577 8027
      2581 8033 2586 8033 2591 8028 2587 8016
      2586 8018 2585 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 211DEG 4KT 2589 8024

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GR