Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Models keep basically a repeating weather pattern in place for
the next couple of days, although the window for the most active
period rain-wise seems to be this afternoon.

Latest Ensembles and CAMS keep a stationary frontal boundary
lingering around central Florida today, with associated cyclogenesis
near Jacksonville. Day-1 Weather Prediction Center (WPC) outlook
highlights the whole SoFlo Atlantic metro area for potential heavy
rain and flash flooding, with a wide window of possible impacts from
8am through 8 pm. Similar to Sunday, both ensemble families and LPMM
6-hr precip products depict another line of broken showers with
embedded thunderstorms bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain,
frequent lightning and gusty winds. The presence of the lingering
boundary will again provide enhanced instability and steep-enough
lapse rates, which combined with 500 mb temps cooling down to around
-11C or -12C will result in increasing favorable conditions for
experiencing a few strong to severe storms. An interesting element
to follow will be the interaction of the predominantly westerly flow
in the morning vs the developing easterly sea breeze along the
Atlantic side. If the sea breeze is strong enough, it could result
in rounds of rain anchoring over some metro areas, which will
require very close monitoring for localized flooding and/or flash
flooding potential.

Although most of the day will remain cloudy with passing showers,
latest HREF/LPMM estimates suggest possible heavy precip rounds as
late as 8-9pm and right over the Miami-Dade metro areas, with
localized amounts upwards of 5-6 inches. This coincides with WPCs
outlook placing most of the eastern half of SoFlo under a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall through Tue/12Z, along with a 50% chance
of exceedance (50th percentile) of 2-3 inches, and a 10% chance of
exceedance (10th percentile) of 3-4 inches for that 24-hour period,
including the overnight hours into Tue morning.

Models suggest a possible break Tuesday after sunrise as latest
model sfc analyses push the aforementioned boundary further north
into the FL/GA border while breaking down.  However, enough
lingering deep moisture should remain in place for another round of
heavy showers and potential for localized flooding/flash flooding
for the late morning/afternoon hours. A few storms may become strong
or severe, with possible large hail, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

Despite the increased cloud cover and shower activity, afternoon
temperatures today are expected to again reach 90 over much of the
area, then cooling down into the low-mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Latest long range solutions keep abundant deep moisture over
SoFlo through the middle of the week, with scattered to numerous
showers and storms likely on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For the end of the work week and into the weekend, models depict a
gradual decrease in shower storm coverage as weak ridging tries to
establish over the west Atlantic, and with its associated ridge axis
extending into the northern half of the peninsula. This synoptic
setup will bring back generally SE winds through much of the long
term with speeds around 10 mph and afternoon periods of higher gusts
along the coasts. It will also keep most showers and thunderstorms
over inland areas of SoFlo. Model PWATs drop to around 1.5 inches
each afternoon, which could still support localized heavy rain.
Returning afternoon sea breeze boundaries will again become focal
points for deeper convection. However, with warmer 500mb
temperatures (-6C to -8C), and a more stable air mass, thunderstorm
potential will be more limited.

Temperatures will return to near or at normals with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area. Morning lows
will also remain near or at normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR likely this afternoon across the East Coast
terminals as rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms
move through. Made some edits to the previous forecast to account
for later start and duration of worst impacts. RA/SHRA could
persist overnight but impacts remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A stalled frontal boundary stalls just north of the coastal waters
will keep elevated chances for showers and storms through the middle
of the work week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3
feet or less through the forecast period and 2 feet or less over the
Gulf waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that
develops, which may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  73  82  76 /  90  80  90  80
West Kendall     90  71  83  73 /  90  90  90  80
Opa-Locka        91  73  84  75 /  90  80  90  70
Homestead        89  73  83  75 /  90  90  90  80
Fort Lauderdale  89  72  82  74 /  80  80  90  70
N Ft Lauderdale  89  72  82  74 /  90  80  90  70
Pembroke Pines   92  75  85  77 /  90  80  90  70
West Palm Beach  88  71  83  73 /  80  80  90  70
Boca Raton       91  71  84  73 /  90  80  90  70
Naples           87  72  84  73 /  80  80  90  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV