Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Memphis, TN

203 
WGUS74 KMEG 031311
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
811 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MSC003-009-139-TNC005-023-039-069-071-077-109-113-031321-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-250403T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcorn MS-Benton MS-Tippah MS-Benton TN-Chester TN-Decatur TN-
Hardeman TN-Hardin TN-Henderson TN-McNairy TN-Madison TN-
811 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALCORN, EASTERN 
BENTON, NORTHERN TIPPAH, SOUTHEASTERN BENTON, CHESTER, DECATUR, 
HARDEMAN, HARDIN, HENDERSON, MCNAIRY AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Sunday for portions 
of East Arkansas, North Mississippi, and West Tennessee.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Sunday for portions 
of East Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and West Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 8793 3577 8798 3572 8803 3568 8802
      3562 8804 3552 8797 3549 8798 3545 8804
      3543 8803 3541 8797 3539 8799 3539 8803
      3535 8801 3530 8802 3530 8798 3519 8798
      3465 8917 3538 8917

$$

DNM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

-Severe weather chances and very heavy rainfall are expected to
continue through Saturday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

-An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in effect Thursday,Friday and
Saturday.

-A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today and Saturday with
 a Moderate Risk on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Severe weather is still ongoing at the 3 AM hour across the Mid-
South. Several confirmed tornadoes were experienced across the area
yesterday and into the overnight hours. Our hearts go out to all the
communities who were effected and will awake to decimated
communities. Unfortunately, severe weather is still in the forecast
for the next several days alongside a dual threat of generational
flooding.

A stalled frontal boundary will linger at least 30% chances of
severe weather through Saturday. Instability to the south of the
front is still favorable of a strong to severe thunderstorm. As this
front remains parked, it will provide enough lift and bursts of
energy to need to be monitored for a few storms with all hazards at
play. This pattern will continue until the front clears the area.
Saturday. The primary hazards for the next few days is largely
damaging wind gusts and hail, a tornado cannot be ruled out. The
tornado threat is a bit higher for areas where the air mass has not
been contaminated by such heavy rainfall.

Generational flash, river, and areal flooding is all possible. Maxed
out perceptible water values for three convective days, training
storms extremely likely, and any convective development increasing
localized amounts has QPF values forecast to be in the 10-15 inch
range. The area likely to see such high amounts will be along and
north of I-40. Considerable flash flooding, especially in urbanized
areas, is expected. Never drive through flooded waters, and flooded
roadways are significantly more difficult to see at night. The axis
of heavy rainfall could still very easily shift so be sure to
continue to monitor the forecast.

While some rivers and streams have already shown a response from
last nights rainfall, soils will soon also show a response. They will
become supersaturated and leave no option but to reject all the
additional rain as runoff. Flash flooding will emerge as a primary
concern with this extremely active pattern. In addition, all of this
rainfall will make tree limbs very weak and easily breakable. It is
best to not only prepare for flooding, but power outages as well.
High and Moderate Risks for excessive rainfall are in effect through
Saturday.

Once the front is forced out of the area by a reinforcing cold
front, dry and cooler conditions return Monday morning. Until then,
stay safe.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Active aviation forecast with multiple impacts expected through
the period at all sites. Ongoing convection over the entire region
will continue through the rest of the night with drops to MVFR
likely for extended periods of time from both CIGs and vsbys. A
line of storms will then settle over the region tonight as a
stationary boundary, locking these conditions in through
tomorrow at all terminals except TUP. TS might stop for a few
hours from ~10z through 18z, but then become reinvigorated
tomorrow afternoon with similar effects as tonight through the end
of the period. Enough confidence exists to introduce prevailing
TSRA around 00Z.

JAB/ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
442 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     Hail             Forrest City            35.01N 90.79W
04/02/2025  E2.50 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Public

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
447 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Hail             Forrest City            35.01N 90.79W
04/02/2025  E2.75 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Public

            Several car windows smashed by large hail.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
455 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     Flash Flood      Parsons                 35.65N 88.13W
04/03/2025                   Decatur            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple roads under water throughout
            Decatur County.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
505 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     Hail             1 SW Brighton           35.47N 89.75W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Tipton             TN   Public

            Quarter size hail reported between Atoka and
            Brighton.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
513 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     Hail             3 E Slayden             34.94N 89.41W
04/02/2025  E2.00 Inch       Marshall           MS   Public

            Egg sized hail fell north of Holly Springs.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     Tornado          5 ESE Strayhorn         34.60N 90.06W
04/02/2025                   Tate               MS   Public

            Home destroyed on Waverly Circle west of
            Senatobia.

&&

SJM