Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Memphis, TN

470 
WGUS74 KMEG 030512
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

TNC047-075-157-030645-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-250403T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fayette TN-Haywood TN-Shelby TN-
1212 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR FAYETTE, HAYWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1212 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Collierville, Germantown, Brownsville, Cordova, Memphis, Lakeland, 
  Arlington, Somerville, Dancyville, Eads, Hillville, Belle Eagle, 
  Holly Grove, Southeast Memphis, Warren, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, 
  Gallaway and Rossville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8956 3540 8951 3540 8947 3544 8947
      3575 8920 3572 8915 3565 8907 3555 8907
      3543 8915 3543 8918 3539 8918 3500 8944
      3501 9003

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon
through Saturday.

-A High Risk of severe weather today, an Enhanced Risk is in
 effect Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday
and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A volatile day ahead across the Midsouth as we anticipate a
significant severe weather outbreak tonight as we begin a several
day stretch of active weather. A High (level 5/5) risk is in
effect for much of the region through tonight!

An upper trough, currently situated over the Rockies, will continue
to inch eastward throughout the end of the week. To its leeward
side, a broad belt of 100+ knot upper level flow will continue to
overspread the central CONUS, maintaining a strong surface mass
response extending up from the Gulf through the entire MS River
Valley. This regime has been in place for well over a day and has
allowed for significant moisture return to take place with mid 60s
and low 70s dewpoints across the region. Insolation, gradual height
falls, and 700 mb cooling will initiate storms later this afternoon
that will last through the night.

Taking a deeper dive into the convective setup today, a truly
volatile environment presents itself. Aforementioned surface heating
and moisture transport has brought very high theta e into the
region. Current HRRR/WOFS/HREF progs display SBCAPE/MLCAPE reaching
above 3500 J/kg later this afternoon with a meager 0/-50 J/kg.
Therefore, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along both a
convectively enhanced cold front to the west and with any stronger
areas of surface convergence across AR/MS/TN/MO. As storms fire,
bulk 0-6km shear from the west will increase, supporting the
development of supercells. ESRH will also begin to rise into the
evening. The same model suite shows values of up to, and possibly
above, 400 m2/s2 across the majority of the region by 00z. The
combination of all of these ingredients will culminate in an STP
greater than 5 for several hours that will be supportive of strong
tornadoes alongside large hail and damaging winds.

Another note about the severe threat will be the bi-modality of the
hazards. CAM guidance has been keen building a large complex of
supercells, potentially embedded in a line, to our west that
propagates east through tonight. Ahead of this line, CAMs/WOFS
have started to highlight the potential for discrete/clustered
supercells. Therefore, threats will likely be stratified between
the two modes with the most significant tornado threat
accompanying any supercells that can develop ahead of the main
line.

Alongside severe weather, strong gradient winds and boundary layer
mixing have brought advisory criteria gusts throughout the region.
As such, a wind advisory is in effect through 11 pm tonight across
the entire region. Some blowing dust has been observed across NE AR
and has been added to the forecast to compensate.

The cold front that is associated with tonight's weather will
eventually stall out over the TN/MS border by tomorrow. The slow
eastward progression of the large-scale upper trough will allow for
the next several days to continue providing severe chances with the
surface stationary boundary as a focus for convection. Tomorrow's
risk has been upgraded to an Enhanced (level 3/5) for tornadoes,
wind, and hail with another Enhanced (level 3/5) on both Friday
and Saturday as the upper system and surface cold front make
their final pass through the region.

With convection focused along a front for several days, dangerous
flooding will also be a concern. PWATs are expected to be above
the 95th percentile for several days as we remain gridlocked into
a tropical airmass. Continued surface convergence and isentropic
ascent will squeeze much of this moisture out across the region
through Saturday before the upper system can exit the region. The
current forecast calls for a swath of 10+ inches of rain on a line
from Cross County AR through Henry County TN with gradually
tapering amounts to the north and south down to 6 inches in N MS.
Locally higher amounts are possible, especially with any training
thunderstorms. This is not a normal and will be a dangerous,
generational flooding event!

Weather will finally calm down into Sunday and Monday as the upper
system exits the CONUS. Surface high pressure and northerlies will
bring drier, cooler air into the Midsouth as a result. This
northwest flow regime will last through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Active aviation forecast with multiple impacts expected through
the period at all sites. Ongoing convection over the entire region
will continue through the rest of the night with drops to MVFR
likely for extended periods of time from both CIGs and vsbys. A
line of storms will then settle over the region tonight as a
stationary boundary, locking these conditions in through
tomorrow at all terminals except TUP. TS might stop for a few
hours from ~10z through 18z, but then become reinvigorated
tomorrow afternoon with similar effects as tonight through the end
of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-115.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
903 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Trimble                 36.20N 89.19W
04/02/2025                   Dyer               TN   Storm Chaser

            Trees and power lines down. Possible
            tornado.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
904 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 WNW Martin            36.38N 88.94W
04/02/2025                   Weakley            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree down blocking Highway 431 causing
            a vehicle accident.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
908 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Bono                35.86N 90.81W
04/02/2025                   Craighead          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Major roof damage to Westside School
            gymnasium.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
914 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Kenton             36.22N 89.05W
04/02/2025                   Obion              TN   Law Enforcement

            Building destroyed on Concord Road.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
936 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Frayser            35.19N 90.02W
04/02/2025                   Shelby             TN   Broadcast Media

            Water covering 1 to 2 lanes lanes on
            eastbound I-40 before the Watkins exit.

&&

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             2 E Midtown Memphis     35.13N 89.95W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Shelby             TN   Broadcast Media

            Nickel and quarter sized hail at Poplar and
            Highland.

&&

MJ