Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon
through Saturday.

-A High Risk of severe weather today, an Enhanced Risk is in
 effect Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday
and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday.

-Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk.
Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A volatile day ahead across the Midsouth as we anticipate a
significant severe weather outbreak tonight as we begin a several
day stretch of active weather. A High (level 5/5) risk is in
effect for much of the region through tonight!

An upper trough, currently situated over the Rockies, will continue
to inch eastward throughout the end of the week. To its leeward
side, a broad belt of 100+ knot upper level flow will continue to
overspread the central CONUS, maintaining a strong surface mass
response extending up from the Gulf through the entire MS River
Valley. This regime has been in place for well over a day and has
allowed for significant moisture return to take place with mid 60s
and low 70s dewpoints across the region. Insolation, gradual height
falls, and 700 mb cooling will initiate storms later this afternoon
that will last through the night.

Taking a deeper dive into the convective setup today, a truly
volatile environment presents itself. Aforementioned surface heating
and moisture transport has brought very high theta e into the
region. Current HRRR/WOFS/HREF progs display SBCAPE/MLCAPE reaching
above 3500 J/kg later this afternoon with a meager 0/-50 J/kg.
Therefore, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along both a
convectively enhanced cold front to the west and with any stronger
areas of surface convergence across AR/MS/TN/MO. As storms fire,
bulk 0-6km shear from the west will increase, supporting the
development of supercells. ESRH will also begin to rise into the
evening. The same model suite shows values of up to, and possibly
above, 400 m2/s2 across the majority of the region by 00z. The
combination of all of these ingredients will culminate in an STP
greater than 5 for several hours that will be supportive of strong
tornadoes alongside large hail and damaging winds.

Another note about the severe threat will be the bi-modality of the
hazards. CAM guidance has been keen building a large complex of
supercells, potentially embedded in a line, to our west that
propagates east through tonight. Ahead of this line, CAMs/WOFS
have started to highlight the potential for discrete/clustered
supercells. Therefore, threats will likely be stratified between
the two modes with the most significant tornado threat
accompanying any supercells that can develop ahead of the main
line.

Alongside severe weather, strong gradient winds and boundary layer
mixing have brought advisory criteria gusts throughout the region.
As such, a wind advisory is in effect through 11 pm tonight across
the entire region. Some blowing dust has been observed across NE AR
and has been added to the forecast to compensate.

The cold front that is associated with tonight's weather will
eventually stall out over the TN/MS border by tomorrow. The slow
eastward progression of the large-scale upper trough will allow for
the next several days to continue providing severe chances with the
surface stationary boundary as a focus for convection. Tomorrow's
risk has been upgraded to an Enhanced (level 3/5) for tornadoes,
wind, and hail with another Enhanced (level 3/5) on both Friday
and Saturday as the upper system and surface cold front make
their final pass through the region.

With convection focused along a front for several days, dangerous
flooding will also be a concern. PWATs are expected to be above
the 95th percentile for several days as we remain gridlocked into
a tropical airmass. Continued surface convergence and isentropic
ascent will squeeze much of this moisture out across the region
through Saturday before the upper system can exit the region. The
current forecast calls for a swath of 10+ inches of rain on a line
from Cross County AR through Henry County TN with gradually
tapering amounts to the north and south down to 6 inches in N MS.
Locally higher amounts are possible, especially with any training
thunderstorms. This is not a normal and will be a dangerous,
generational flooding event!

Weather will finally calm down into Sunday and Monday as the upper
system exits the CONUS. Surface high pressure and northerlies will
bring drier, cooler air into the Midsouth as a result. This
northwest flow regime will last through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Active aviation forecast with multiple impacts expected through
the period at all sites. Ongoing convection over the entire region
will continue through the rest of the night with drops to MVFR
likely for extended periods of time from both CIGs and vsbys. A
line of storms will then settle over the region tonight as a
stationary boundary, locking these conditions in through
tomorrow at all terminals except TUP. TS might stop for a few
hours from ~10z through 18z, but then become reinvigorated
tomorrow afternoon with similar effects as tonight through the end
of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-115.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for
     MSZ006-009-015>017-021>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
810 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     Hail             4 ESE Kenton            36.18N 88.95W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Gibson             TN   Public

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
812 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Hail             Forrest City            35.01N 90.79W
04/02/2025  E2.75 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Public

            Baseball sized hail in the 100 block of
            Washington Street.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
818 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monette                 35.89N 90.34W
04/02/2025                   Craighead          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Structural damage to several homes in
            Monette. Report delayed from time of
            occurrence. Possible tornado.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Memphis TN
820 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Hail             Martin                  36.34N 88.85W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Weakley            TN   Broadcast Media

1041 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 ENE Whitehaven        35.04N 89.98W
04/02/2025  M58 MPH          Shelby             TN   Official NWS Obs

            ASOS site measured wind gust of 58 mph.

0253 PM     Hail             5 SSE Germantown        35.02N 89.76W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Shelby             TN   Public

            Facebook report of golfball size hail near
            Shelby drive and Forest Hill Irene.

0400 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Southwest Memphis       35.05N 90.07W
04/02/2025  M70 MPH          Shelby             TN   ASOS

            ASOS measured wind gust.

0528 PM     Hail             2 NW Germantown         35.11N 89.81W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Shelby             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0530 PM     Hail             3 NNW Germantown        35.13N 89.80W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            Corrects previous hail report from 3 NNW
            Germantown. one inch hail at NWS Memphis
            lasted 2-3 minutes.

0537 PM     Hail             3 W Eads                35.19N 89.72W
04/02/2025  E0.75 Inch       Shelby             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0539 PM     Hail             4 S Lakeland            35.18N 89.75W
04/02/2025  E1.75 Inch       Shelby             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

0550 PM     Hail             Lakeland                35.24N 89.73W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Shelby             TN   Public

0646 PM     Hail             2 SW Lakeland           35.22N 89.75W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Shelby             TN   Amateur Radio

            Quarter hail observed at milemarker 93 on
            Interstate 40.

0738 PM     Hail             Kenton                  36.21N 89.01W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Obion              TN   Public

0445 PM     Hail             Jackson                 35.63N 88.83W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Madison            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail at Jackson Regional
            airport.

0450 PM     Hail             3 NNE Jackson           35.68N 88.81W
04/02/2025  E1.25 Inch       Madison            TN   Amateur Radio

            Half dollar size hail Exit 83 N Jackson.

0450 PM     Hail             3 NW Jackson            35.66N 88.88W
04/02/2025  E1.25 Inch       Madison            TN   Amateur Radio

            Quarter size hail south of I 40 and the 45
            bypass.

0514 PM     Hail             4 N Jackson             35.69N 88.84W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Madison            TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0614 PM     Hail             5 NW Henderson          35.50N 88.72W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Madison            TN   Amateur Radio

            Quarter hail in Pinson relayed by Amateur
            Radio.

0400 PM     Hail             Henning                 35.67N 89.58W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Lauderdale         TN   Emergency Mngr

            Report of golf ball hail at West tennessee
            State Penn.

0611 PM     Hail             Bolivar                 35.26N 88.99W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Hardeman           TN   Broadcast Media

0736 PM     Hail             4 ESE Kenton            36.18N 88.95W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Gibson             TN   Public

0318 PM     Hail             Oakland                 35.22N 89.51W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Fayette            TN   Public

0318 PM     Hail             1 W Oakland             35.23N 89.52W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Fayette            TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0325 PM     Hail             Oakland                 35.22N 89.51W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Fayette            TN   Storm Chaser

            Golfball size hail in Oakland tn area from
            chaser.

0546 PM     Hail             Williston               35.16N 89.38W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Fayette            TN   Public

0523 PM     Hail             1 ESE Middle Fork       35.86N 88.48W
04/02/2025  E2.50 Inch       Carroll            TN   Public

            Public report of hail just under baseball
            size near Clarksburg. Time estimated via
            radar.

0530 PM     Hail             Huntingdon              36.01N 88.41W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Carroll            TN   Emergency Mngr

0539 PM     Hail             Hollow Rock             36.04N 88.27W
04/02/2025  M1.25 Inch       Carroll            TN   Public

            1/2 dollar sized hail.

0540 PM     Hail             Middle Fork             35.87N 88.49W
04/02/2025  E2.50 Inch       Carroll            TN   Public

0557 PM     Hail             Camden                  36.06N 88.10W
04/02/2025  M1.25 Inch       Benton             TN   Emergency Mngr

0630 PM     Hail             Camden                  36.06N 88.11W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Benton             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Golf ball hail about 1/4 mi East of the
            Courthouse.

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Senatobia               34.62N 89.97W
04/02/2025                   Tate               MS   Public

            trees down across Hwy 51.

0452 PM     Hail             3 WSW Barr              34.60N 89.84W
04/02/2025  E2.50 Inch       Tate               MS   Law Enforcement

            Spikey tennis ball sized hail.

0440 PM     Hail             Sardis                  34.43N 89.91W
04/02/2025  M1.75 Inch       Panola             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Golf ball size around the Union area of
            Panola County.

0500 PM     Hail             Holly Springs           34.77N 89.44W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       Marshall           MS   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail Jaybird/Hollysprings
            Hernando, MS.

0345 PM     Hail             Fulton                  34.26N 88.40W
04/02/2025  M2.00 Inch       Itawamba           MS   Broadcast Media

            Large non-spherical hail.

0412 PM     Hail             1 ESE Sandy Springs     34.43N 88.36W
04/02/2025  E2.75 Inch       Itawamba           MS   Public

            Ryans Well in Itawamba county baseball sized
            hail.

0250 PM     Hail             Olive Branch            34.95N 89.83W
04/02/2025  M1.00 Inch       DeSoto             MS   Public

            Quarter Size hail.

0500 PM     Hail             4 NNW Hernando          34.88N 90.01W
04/02/2025  E1.75 Inch       DeSoto             MS   Amateur Radio

            Golfball size hail near Nesbitt at Lauder
            and 269.

0505 PM     Hail             2 W Olive Branch        34.97N 89.86W
04/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       DeSoto             MS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0719 PM     Hail             Forrest City            35.01N 90.79W
04/02/2025  E2.75 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Public

            Baseball sized hail in the 100 block of
            Washington Street.

0732 PM     Hail             3 S Forrest City        34.97N 90.78W
04/02/2025  M2.50 Inch       St. Francis        AR   Public

            Near the Fairgrounds.

0606 PM     Tornado          3 E Fisher              35.49N 90.92W
04/02/2025                   Poinsett           AR   Law Enforcement

0321 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSW Turrell           35.35N 90.27W
04/02/2025  M70 MPH          Crittenden         AR   Trained Spotter

            Measured via rooftop anemometer.

0755 PM     Hail             Turrell                 35.38N 90.26W
04/02/2025  E2.75 Inch       Crittenden         AR   Trained Spotter

0809 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monette                 35.89N 90.34W
04/02/2025                   Craighead          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Structural damage to several homes in
            Monette. Report delayed from time of
            occurrence. Possible tornado.

&&

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
825 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Jericho            35.32N 90.26W
04/02/2025                   Crittenden         AR   Emergency Mngr

            Overturned semi at MM 18 on Interstate 55.

&&

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
827 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Madison                 35.02N 90.74W
04/02/2025                   St. Francis        AR   Public

            Multiple trees down east of Forrest City.
            Sign damage also reported.

&&

12