Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive
  rainfall are outlined across the forecast today

- We get a little break from the heat this week with several days
  of rain cooled air and cloud cover.

- High rain chances will persist through the week and into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

An upper trough is over much of the eastern CONUS this morning
while an upper low is cutting off over western Texas. A MCS is
over central TX and is gradually shifting east while decreasing in
intensity somewhat. A weak frontal boundary stretches from
central TX across central LA into central MS.

Through the morning, the diffluent pattern aloft ahead of the
developing west TX upper low may allow a few showers and storms
to potentially develop along the coast and spread inland. The
central TX MCS will move closer and roughly along the weak frontal
boundary and be near or in the Sabine Valley around mid day or
shortly after. The moist and unstable airmass may allow for an
isolated severe storm during the afternoon as the line of storms
moves through, but mainly in SE TX where SPC has highlighted a
portion of the region as having a slight risk. The very moist
airmass with PWATs at or above 2" (90th percentile and higher)
will allow for very efficient rain producing storms. If any
training develops amounts may stack up quickly.

By Thursday the west TX upper low will travel to north TX. The
pattern aloft will remain diffluent. While the bulk of the
convection will remain west of the local area, widespread
afternoon convection is likely.

The upper low lifts into the central MS Valley by Friday, but a
weakness aloft remains in place locally. Widespread afternoon
thunderstorms are again anticipated. Some of which will be capable
of very heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A weakness aloft is expected to remain in place through the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous mainly
diurnal storms are anticipated each day.

By mid week an upper ridge may nudge back in from the east. Rain
chances will decrease, but the trade off will be apparent
temperatures back to near heat adv criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A line of storms is moving across SETX this afternoon with a few
showers and storms popping up ahead of the line and along the
coast. Some of these showers and storms could be strong, producing
heavy showers that reduce vis or hail and damaging winds. Activity
will taper tonight and there is a low end chance of fog in the
predawn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will
linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  89  72  91 /  30  70  20  70
LCH  77  88  78  90 /  30  70  30  60
LFT  74  88  75  89 /  30  80  20  80
BPT  77  88  77  90 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
130 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616-111900-
Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Newton TX-
Southern Orange TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Upper Jefferson TX-Tyler TX-
130 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...EASTERN
TYLER...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN HARDIN...ORANGE AND JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Rockland to near Beaumont. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee, West Orange, Kirbyville,
Evadale, Central Gardens, Town Bluff, Call, Ebenezer, Fred,
Mauriceville, and Buna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 9395 3003 9374 2999 9379 3000 9377
      2998 9377 2996 9413 3106 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 255DEG 18KT 3106 9435 3004 9415

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

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