Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive
  rainfall are outlined across the forecast today

- We get a little break from the heat this week with several days
  of rain cooled air and cloud cover.

- High rain chances will persist through the week and into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

An upper trough is over much of the eastern CONUS this morning
while an upper low is cutting off over western Texas. A MCS is
over central TX and is gradually shifting east while decreasing in
intensity somewhat. A weak frontal boundary stretches from
central TX across central LA into central MS.

Through the morning, the diffluent pattern aloft ahead of the
developing west TX upper low may allow a few showers and storms
to potentially develop along the coast and spread inland. The
central TX MCS will move closer and roughly along the weak frontal
boundary and be near or in the Sabine Valley around mid day or
shortly after. The moist and unstable airmass may allow for an
isolated severe storm during the afternoon as the line of storms
moves through, but mainly in SE TX where SPC has highlighted a
portion of the region as having a slight risk. The very moist
airmass with PWATs at or above 2" (90th percentile and higher)
will allow for very efficient rain producing storms. If any
training develops amounts may stack up quickly.

By Thursday the west TX upper low will travel to north TX. The
pattern aloft will remain diffluent. While the bulk of the
convection will remain west of the local area, widespread
afternoon convection is likely.

The upper low lifts into the central MS Valley by Friday, but a
weakness aloft remains in place locally. Widespread afternoon
thunderstorms are again anticipated. Some of which will be capable
of very heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A weakness aloft is expected to remain in place through the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous mainly
diurnal storms are anticipated each day.

By mid week an upper ridge may nudge back in from the east. Rain
chances will decrease, but the trade off will be apparent
temperatures back to near heat adv criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A line of storms is moving across SETX this afternoon with a few
showers and storms popping up ahead of the line and along the
coast. Some of these showers and storms could be strong, producing
heavy showers that reduce vis or hail and damaging winds. Activity
will taper tonight and there is a low end chance of fog in the
predawn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will
linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  89  72  91 /  30  70  20  70
LCH  77  88  78  90 /  30  70  30  60
LFT  74  88  75  89 /  30  80  20  80
BPT  77  88  77  90 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

LAZ241-111730-
Southern Calcasieu LA-
1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH
THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Lake Charles Regional Airport,
moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles and Lake Charles Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9321 3021 9330 3024 9320 3024 9319
      3025 9316 3024 9315 3025 9312 3005 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 166DEG 10KT 3008 9317

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

LAZ074-152-242-111745-
Upper Vermilion LA-Southern Jefferson Davis LA-East Cameron LA-
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISHES
THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1220 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout over Lowry, or near Lake Arthur,
moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Arthur, Klondike, Lowry, and Thornwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 9284 3015 9280 3010 9262 3009 9262
      3009 9261 3010 9261 3007 9250 3002 9255
      3002 9262 2996 9262 2991 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 197DEG 5KT 3000 9275

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ180-201-261-515-516-111800-
Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-Southern Jasper TX-Upper Jefferson TX-
Tyler TX-
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...TYLER...
HARDIN...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH
100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Seven Oaks to 6 miles east of Daisetta. Movement was northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lumberton, Silsbee, Woodville, Kountze, Sour Lake,
Colmesneil, Nome, Chester, Rockland, Warren, Thicket, Saratoga, Fred,
Wildwood, Bevil Oaks, China, Pine Forest, Lakeview, and Weiss Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3049 9454 3100 9466 3102 9465
      3106 9456 3105 9449 3103 9448 3103 9445
      3100 9445 3104 9435 3102 9431 3016 9402
      3002 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 247DEG 36KT 3088 9478 3014 9454

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
103 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

LAZ141-241-111830-
Southern Calcasieu LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-
103 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISH
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 103 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Grand Lake, moving north at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, Westlake, Lake Charles Regional Airport, Moss
Bluff, and Carlyss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9321 3005 9332 3032 9340 3033 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 176DEG 19KT 3008 9329

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
105 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ180-201-259-261-515-516-615-616-111830-
Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-Lower Jefferson TX-Southern Orange TX-
Northern Jasper TX-Southern Jasper TX-Upper Jefferson TX-Tyler TX-
105 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EASTERN
TYLER...EASTERN HARDIN...WESTERN ORANGE AND EASTERN JASPER COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from 6 miles
east of Woodville to near Fannett. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee,
Woodville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Colmesneil, Evadale, Warren, Town
Bluff, Fred, Wildwood, Buna, Bevil Oaks, China, and Rose City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3090 9449 3098 9398 3027 9390 3024 9390
      3024 9389 3004 9387 2996 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 236DEG 26KT 3080 9432 2999 9424

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones