River Flood Warning 77, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
204 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch has been posted for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA into Saturday evening where periods of training
  precipitation over saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Active weather continues, with significant flash flooding
impacting Acadiana and southwest Louisiana. Rain gauges in
Lafayette, St. Martin, and Iberia Parish recorded rainfall amounts
above 7 inches, with a maximum report of 8.2 inches near
Broussard. Satellite and radar continue to show widespread,
scattered, slow-moving storms, with the 50 dBZ located below the
freezing level. These low echo centroid cells are proficient
rainmakers, with radar-estimated rain rates between 1 and 3 inches
per hour.

In the upper levels, a trough is located across central Texas and
will slowly lift northward over the weekend. Impacts from the
trough will continue to be felt through the weekend and into the
start of next week, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected each day. Heavy rainfall remains a concern on Saturday,
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(ERO) across the region. Moisture and instability remain high,
with expected PWAT values above 1.8 inches over the next several
days. To put that number into context, the climatological 75th
percentile is 1.78 inches. CAPE values are also high, ranging from
1,000 to 1,500 J/kg, with a "skinny CAPE" profile—an indicator
that can support high rain rates in convection. As stated in the
previous AFD, upshear Corfidi vectors remain low further
supporting the Flash flood threat. With already soaked ground
conditions, the flash flood threat will remain elevated through
the weekend. Along the I-10 corridor, from Beaumont to Lafayette,
multiple models show expected rainfall amounts between 1 and 3
inches over the next 24 hours. The 'reasonable worst-case'
scenario, represented by the 90th percentile, suggests widespread
totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain.

By Sunday, the trough will exit our area, but widespread showers
and thunderstorms will persist, shifting toward conditions more
favorable for airmass convection. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
afternoon. Persistent onshore flow will keep dew point values
stuck in the mid to upper 70s through the start of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The unsettled pattern will continue into next week, with PoPs
remaining in the forecast each afternoon for the rest of the week.
At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic will continue
pushing warm, moist air across the region. Aloft, a ridge will be
situated in the desert southwest far enough away to stall the
upper-level pattern but not influence our weather. A series of
troughs will squeeze past the ridge, impacting our area, with
widespread rain and flooding being the primary concerns. River
flooding could also begin to affect the region as conditions
worsen.

Near the end of the work week, the previously mentioned ridge will
begin rebuilding over the central U.S., which could limit
convection depending on its exact position.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A slow moving trough axis continues to impact all terminals
across the region. After hours of heavy rain LFT and ARA are in a
pocket of clear air with VFR conditions but convection and precip
will build back into the area over the next few hours. Winds will
remain light, below 10 knots, and from the south. Near convection
CIG and VIS will drop to IFR / LIFR levels with frequent lgt and
gusty winds. Outside of convection conditions will be MVFR to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern
over the weekend and into next week. Light to moderate onshore
flow will continue through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  91  73  92 /  20  70  20  70
LCH  76  90  76  90 /  20  60  10  70
LFT  75  90  75  90 /  30  70  10  80
BPT  75  90  76  90 /  10  50  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-516-
     615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
213 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     Flash Flood      Westlake                30.26N 93.26W
06/13/2025                   Calcasieu          LA   Public

            Public video of water in the garage and
            home.

&&

CS/87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
226 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

TXZ259-260-132000-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
226 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NEWTON AND
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Town Bluff, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Newton, Harrisburg, and Jamestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 9393 3085 9378 3073 9413 3075 9413
      3076 9414 3077 9413 3079 9415 3080 9418
      3082 9419 3083 9418 3085 9420 3087 9419
      3089 9420 3090 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 241DEG 19KT 3085 9412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
228 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

TXZ201-132000-
Hardin TX-
228 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN HARDIN COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM CDT...

At 228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Batson, or 8 miles west of
Saratoga, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saratoga and Batson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 9448 3022 9436 3016 9462 3036 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 246DEG 14KT 3026 9466

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
303 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

TXZ201-132030-
Hardin TX-
303 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Saratoga, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Silsbee, Kountze, Saratoga, and Honey Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 9426 3053 9420 3033 9410 3032 9410
      3030 9412 3029 9411 3012 9447 3038 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 240DEG 18KT 3030 9446

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Jones