River Flood Warning 75, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch has been posted for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA into Saturday evening where periods of training
  precipitation over saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall has been
  outlined across across the forecast area

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A shallow shortwave trough is forecast to slowly lift north
through the afternoon into the Missouri Valley tonight. Locally
along the Gulf Coast, an enhanced Jet region has developed leading
to moisture convergence across the area. A low level - near
surface trough axis extending along south central LA will meander
across the forecast through this evening while lifting north with
the parent upper level trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
likely to increase in coverage across SETX and south central LA
during from daybreak through the early afternoon.

With warm surface temperatures and dewpoints, there will be an axis
of higher instability to lift through the area prompting a flash
flooding threat where cells with greater depth training over already
saturated soil may occur. Additionally,lowered Upshear Corfidi
vectors further substantiate a flash flood threat for lower SETX /
SWLA region through into this evening. Naturally with mostly cloudy
to overcast skies, many locations will see temperatures trend in the
low to mid 80's. However a few pockets of sunshine can easily bump
highs closer toward 90°F.

By Saturday the axis of stronger moisture convergence shifts further
east across the Mississippi Valley. This evolution in the pattern
still allows for a healthy onshore flow with a weak boundary to
waver between the coastal and marine zones throughout the afternoon.
That said, speed divergence aloft shifts north of us leaving the
environment more conditional upon colliding outflow boundary and
land / Seabreeze interactions. With a little more sunshine in the
mix, temperatures likely to hedge further toward 90°F.

Hereafter, broad high pressure across the western Atlantic into the
central Gulf persists moist onshore flow through the remainder of
the weekend which will keep scattered PoPs through the remainder of
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The pattern in the long range keeps appreciable rainfall throughout
the new work week ahead as a portion of the downstream trough
becomes cutoff from the northern stream and develops a closed upper
level low hanging over the NW Gulf. As this feature appears to stall
over the region, this creates an unsettled nature to timing and
amounts of precipitation through the week. While rainfall will lean
on the above normal side of climatology temperatures will keep
closer to par to the low 90's.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A slow moving trough axis across the southern portions of LA will
result in training TSRA and VCTS prevailing through much of the
late morning hours. Trends in convective precip will build
westward through the morning and early afternoon along the I-10
corridor into SETX. VRB outflows from TS winds have excelled pass
30-35kts over Acadiana terminals. Outside of convection CIGs will
trend VFR while storms naturally reduce VIS / CIG periodically
into IFR / LIFR as some rainfall rates are very high.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through this week. Small craft should exercise caution
remains through 7AM. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger
through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  91  73 /  80  20  70  20
LCH  87  76  90  76 /  80  20  60  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  80  20  70  10
BPT  86  76  90  76 /  80  20  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-516-
     615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

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