Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Jackson, KY

045 
WGUS73 KJKL 061504
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1004 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYC051-109-125-061700-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250206T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay KY-Jackson KY-Laurel KY-
1004 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR 
CENTRAL LAUREL, NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 1004 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms that produced 
between one and a half and two and a half inches of rainfall, had 
exited southeast of the warned area. Excessive runoff will continue 
to cause flash flooding of creeks and streams, especially in low 
lying areas.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  London, Manchester, Fogertown, Benge, Grace, Byron, Portersburg, 
  Crawford, Datha, Royrader, Langnau, Deer Lick, Urban, Sidell, High 
  Knob, Shepherdtown, Hooker, Marydell, Malcomb and Mcwhorter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8373 3734 8368 3735 8367 3736 8365
      3730 8360 3718 8355 3705 8421 3723 8423

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEOGERIAN

621 
WGUS73 KJKL 061658
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1158 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYC051-109-125-061708-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250206T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay KY-Jackson KY-Laurel KY-
1158 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY FOR CENTRAL 
LAUREL, NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters have receded. 

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8373 3734 8368 3735 8367 3736 8365
      3730 8360 3718 8355 3705 8421 3723 8423

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
810 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally well above normal temperatures will prevail through
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms will be around through the evening. Some of the
  stronger storms could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and
  locally heavy rains - leading to isolated flash flooding.

- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with an
  increasing flood risk, and the potential for wintry
  precipitation at times for some locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

Second round of severe weather and flooding storms is moving
through the CWA ahead of a developing cold front. This prompted a
Tornado Watch for much of the area which needed to be locally
extended as the cells continued to hold together. Have updated
the grids for this severe upgrade this morning along with adding
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones, HWO, and SAF primarily to account for the Tornado
Watch and the extension of it to the rest of the JKL CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 515 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

09Z sfc analysis shows a developing area of low pressure moving
through central Kentucky with a warm front lifting into eastern
parts of the state and a trailing cold front forming to the west.
This boundary has helped to focus the ample moisture that was
advected into the area overnight with training showers and storms
through the northern portion of the JKL CWA. A trend to settle
slowly southeast following the instability during these pre-dawn
hours is also noted. Watching for rotation with the southern
extent of these storms given the high shear and favorable CAMs
outlook. However, the training strong thunderstorms have been
mainly a flooding problem with instances reported south of I-64
and near the Mountain Parkway, so far. The Flood Watch for this
system remains in effect through 1 pm. Otherwise, temperatures
vary from around 40 degrees in the north to the mid 60s south.
Dewpoints are similarly split ranging from around 40 north to the
lower 60s in the south. Meanwhile, away from any storms, winds are
running from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around
25 mph in the warm sector but lighter to the northeast and
variable. The latest IR satellite images show the coldest cloud
tops associated with the main storms moving steadily east through
the JKL CWA with more scattered colder pockets to the west with
the nascent cold front. This initial active period will fade to a
lull over the next hour or so but more activity is progged
towards dawn coming out of central Kentucky with that front.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a wave passing just to the north of the
state this morning and responsible for the storms currently
plaguing the area. This is moving past in fast zonal mid level
flow initially, but also turning to slightly northwesterly by
evening on account of the larger trough digging through the Great
Lakes. This will maintain the lower 5h heights over the area into
Friday with additional, weaker energy inbound from the Central
Plains. The net result of this pattern evolution is to keep the
state right in the midst of the storm track through this part of
the country for the short term and beyond. The model spread aloft
continues to be small making the NBM a reasonable starting point
for the forecast grids, though with some adjustments for PoPs
today to incorporate the latest CAM thoughts.

Sensible weather features the storminess of the morning eventually
giving way to drying out from northwest to southeast following
the system's cold front dropping through this part of the state.
This boundary does slow, or even stall, towards evening on
account of a trailing sfc wave that will continue a shower and
storm threat for at least the southern parts of the area into the
evening. The rest of the system will gradually clear out around
midnight for our far southeast parts - nearer to the Virgnia and
Tennessee borders. After a warmer day due to the southwesterly
winds this morning we will see another chilly night with enough
clearing expected - at least north - for radiational cooling and
terrain distinctions. Friday starts out sunny but will see clouds
increasing for the afternoon as the boundary to the south starts
to come back north with some light rain possible late in the
afternoon and into the evening.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the PoPs today per the latest CAMs guidance. Did not
deviate too far from the NBM temperatures aside from allowing for
a bit of terrain distinction to show up in the northern, and
expected to be clearer, parts of the area tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

An extremely active pattern on tap in the extended portion of the
forecast. Several storm systems will traverse the CONUS over the
weekend and into the middle of next week. Each of these systems
will bring widespread precipitation to eastern Kentucky as they
move through. The flow pattern aloft will feature a broad and
vigorous trough situated over southeastern Canada, weak ridging
just north of the border north of North Dakota and Montana. West
of there, a strong winter storm will be in place over Wyoming,
Montana, and parts of the four corners region. This system could
bring widespread snow to many areas, especially the mountains.
Further west, yet another storm system is expected to move onshore
in the Pacific Northwest, bringing a combination of coastal and
lower elevation rainfall, and high elevation snow. Another, less
potent looking storm, looks to be moving through the desert
southwest to begin the period. For our area, several models have a
nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from a storm over
the western Atlantic and across the Carolinas, Tennessee Valley,
central Mississippi Valley and into northern Texas. This boundary
is progged to link up with an area of low pressure that will then
send another frontal boundary northwestward to join up with wintry
system that will be centered over Wyoming.

We will begin the period with widespread rain showers moving into
and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as waves of low pressure
move eastward along the stationary front. This boundary will finally
begin moving as the Wyoming storms moves eastward across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes on Saturday. The cold front
associated with this system will push across our area Saturday and
Saturday night, and will bring widespread rain to us yet again. We
may even see a few thunderstorms moving through Saturday night as
the potent cold front races through the area. We will see all rain
to begin the period, as temperatures will be more than warm enough
for it. However, a major air mass change will occur on Sunday, as
much cooler air spills into the region behind the departing cold
front. In fact, daytimes from Sunday onward will max out in the 40s
for most areas. Locations along and north I64 might only reach the
upper 30s from Tuesday onward. With the introduction of colder air,
we will see chances for snow across portions of the area.

The first batch of rain should come to an end sometime early Sunday,
as the first cold front finally moves off to our southeast. We
should see a short window of dry, albeit cooler, weather Sunday into
Sunday evening. The break in the weather will be short lived, as a
southern stream storm system is forecast to move in from the south.
This system will bring more rain, and perhaps some snow, the area
Sunday night and Monday. The precipitation will become more and more
widespread late Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday, as another more
potent system moves in from the Plains. We should see primarily rain
on Monday, ahead of another oncoming cold front. Once boundary
passes through Monday night, enough cold air will spill in to allow
for a transition from rain to rain/snow mix to all snow. It looks
like the coldest air will remain confined to the I-64 corridor
Monday into early Tuesday morning, before the colder air retreats
north during the day, leading to the wintry precip following suit.
Initially, the rain/snow mix and snow will remain north of Highway
80s. After the precip lets up a bit Tuesday night, we will see
repeated rounds of rain, rain/snow mix/ and snow moving through the
area, as more waves of low pressure move through the. Light snow
accumulations will be possible in our far northern counties Monday
night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night, during repeated southward
intrusions of below freezing air. With quite a bit of uncertainty
still showing up in the models regarding storm tracks, temperatures,
and moisture amounts, we will continue go conservative with snowfall
amounts for our area.

In summary, the extended will be quite active, with multiple storm
systems moving through our neck of the woods. Multiple rounds of
rain will start things off over the weekend, with wintry
precipitation making a return the first half of next week, as
several southern intrusions of colder air occur. Weather hazards to
watch out for will be locally heavy rainfall and any issues caused
by accumulating snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

Very poor aviation conditions continue for much of the forecast
area at TAF issuance time due to widespread showers and
thunderstorms associated with a dropping front. Some of the
storms could produce isolated instances of hail and might also
contain strong wind gusts. LLWS from the west at up to 50 kts
will still be a concern through around 15Z outside of any
thunderstorms. This will diminish through the morning as a cold
front drops in from the northwest and brings the storm threat to
an end. Ceilings could drop to IFR, or worse, at times during the
morning in the storms before slowly improving again to mainly
MVFR during the afternoon. Another system is expected to brush
southwestern Kentucky with additional lighter rainfall late
this evening into the night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
901 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-108-111-071200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
Wolfe-Lee-
901 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain from recent thunderstorms poses a risk of flooding today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible in some locations Saturday evening. These
storms could also produce locally heavy rain leading to instances of
flooding.

Heavy rain is also possible Monday night and Tuesday..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-107-109-110-112>120-071200-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-
Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
901 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 3 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this morning. Any of the stronger storms
could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rain -
leading to the potential for localized flash flooding. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible this morning.

The thunderstorm potential then shifts to far southern and
southeastern Kentucky in the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening. These storms could also
produce locally heavy rain leading to instances of flooding.

Heavy rain is also possible Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GREIF/AR/HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
833 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ107-109-110-119-120-061415-
Martin KY-Floyd KY-Pike KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-
833 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN...SOUTHERN
JOHNSON...NORTHERN FLOYD...NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND CENTRAL MAGOFFIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM EST...

At 832 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Foraker, or near Salyersville, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Prestonsburg, Salyersville, Mason, Allen, Oaklawn Estates, Lancer,
Carver, Burning Fork, Dotson, West Royalton Station, Carver Station,
Swamp Branch, Riceville, Auxier, Gapville, Cliff, Gypsy, Brainard,
Pleasant, and Bays Branch.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 70 and 76.
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Kentucky Highway 3 in Johnson County  Kentucky Highway 3 in Martin
County between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 13 and 14.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 11 and 21.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Johnson County between mile markers 0 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for southeastern
and northeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 8254 3763 8315 3764 8317 3764 8319
      3765 8320 3765 8321 3774 8321 3779 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 269DEG 46KT 3767 8313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
837 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ109-110-112-113-061415-
Breathitt KY-Floyd KY-Knott KY-Magoffin KY-
837 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KNOTT...CENTRAL
FLOYD...CENTRAL BREATHITT AND SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES THROUGH
915 AM EST...

At 837 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Inverness, or over Jackson, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Estill, Martin, Wayland, Allen, East McDowell, Fredville,
Buck, Vail, Hippo, Handshoe, Gunlock, Glo, Printer, Aluba, McDowell,
Daisydell, Betsy Layne, Noctor, and Orchard.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 13.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 15 and 20.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 8261 3748 8348 3763 8341 3762 8262
      3751 8262 3750 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 269DEG 46KT 3753 8338

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
842 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ107-119-061400-
Martin KY-Johnson KY-
842 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MARTIN AND EAST CENTRAL
JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM EST...

At 842 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tomahawk, or near Inez, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Inez, Warfield, Add, Beauty, Tomahawk, Pilgrim, Bradbury, Debord,
Coalpoint, Davella, Hode, Oppy, Davisport, Prince, Calf Creek,
Delong, Stidham, Milo, Job, and Lovely.

THIS INCLUDES Kentucky Highway 3 in Martin County between mile
markers 5 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for northeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 8269 3789 8268 3788 8261 3789 8260
      3792 8260 3795 8258 3796 8251 3790 8247
      3791 8247 3788 8242 3787 8241 3786 8242
      3781 8240 3782 8239 3777 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 269DEG 46KT 3786 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
845 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Robinet                 37.38N 84.17W
02/06/2025                   Rockcastle         KY   Emergency Mngr

            TOR Possible. Report of a roof off a house
            on Red Hill Road in Livingston, KY.
            Individual contacted the County Emergency
            Manager about a possible tornado. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

JMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
854 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ079-083-061445-
Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
854 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE AND SOUTHERN
PULASKI COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM EST...

At 853 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Faubush, or 12 miles north of Monticello, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Burnside, Naomi, Sloans Valley, Nancy, Grade, Bronston,
Ruth, Elihu, Mount Victory, Quinton, Dykes, Frazer, Tateville,
Pulaski County Park, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Faubush, General
Burnside S.P., Trimble, and Ferguson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8490 3708 8437 3697 8434 3695 8438
      3695 8442 3692 8447 3697 8488 3700 8484
      3705 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 267DEG 41KT 3703 8487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
910 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ113-115>118-061500-
Clay KY-Perry KY-Knott KY-Letcher KY-Leslie KY-
910 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LESLIE...LETCHER...
SOUTHERN PERRY...SOUTH CENTRAL KNOTT AND EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 AM EST...

At 910 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Viper, or near Hazard, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Whitesburg, Hyden, Letcher, Jenkins, Fleming-Neon, Vicco,
Blackey, Van, Colly, Premium, Sergent, Redfox, Avawam, Whitco,
Southdown, Hot Spot, Daisy, Dunham, and Wendover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8361 3726 8351 3719 8258 3715 8263
      3712 8272 3709 8273 3708 8272 3707 8273
      3705 8272 3704 8275 3703 8275 3702 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 275DEG 44KT 3718 8315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF