Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally well above normal temperatures will prevail through
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms will be around into Thursday. Some of the stronger
  thunderstorms could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and locally
  heavy rains - leading to isolated flash flooding.

- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with an
  increasing flood risk, and the potential for wintry
  precipitation at times for some locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

The warm front is starting to lift further northeast into eastern
Kentucky early this morning putting much of the southern half of
the JKl CWA in an area primed for organized and strong storms due
to enhanced instability developing in a region of moderate to high
shear. This area is being actively monitored for a potential
severe thunderstorm watch with the main concern the ability of the
convection to be sfc based. All modes of severe will be possible
as supercells develop along and to the south of the warm front.
To the north of the boundary, training showers and thunderstorms
continue with an increasing potential for flash flooding. Have
updated the forecast to increase the QPF for these northern
locations through 12Z in accordance with the latest CAMs along
with maintaining the likely thunder chances and near 100 percent
PoPs. With this update did also add in the current obs and trends
- capturing the climbing dewpoints and temperatures for most of
the area - for the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1048 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Flood Watch was expanded to include counties along and north of
I-64 on the late evening forecast update. This area has generally
experienced the heaviest rainfall amounts so far this evening.
Additionally, while there has still been some run-to-run and
model-to-model variability this evening, CAMs largely now favor
the axis of heaviest rain occurring near and north of the
Mountain Parkway, including over portions of the expanded Flood
Watch. (The HRW-FV3 continues to favor the heavier rainfall over
southern Kentucky but increasingly seems to be an outlier).
Upstream storm evolution over the Lower Ohio Valley also lends
confidence to areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway
receiving the heaviest swath of rainfall overnight. Latest hourly
T/Td/PoP trends have been blended into the overnight forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Widespread showers with embedded thunder are spreading into
southeastern Kentucky this evening and should reach most
locations by 10 PM EST (a few places in far southeastern Kentucky
might miss out until deeper in the night). An unusually strong
temperature gradient remains across the area at update time
ranging from 32F at the Fleming-Mason Airport to 65F at the
Harlan and Middlesboro airports. The latest CAM runs continue to
show narrow swath(s) of rainfall in the 2-3+ inch range in under
6 hours where thunderstorms train overnight into Thursday morning
but spatial run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still
lacking. Any rainfall amounts exceeding 2.75-3 inches in 6 hours
would easily exceed flash flood guidance in most locations;
fortunately, the modeled areal footprint of the heavier totals
remain relatively small. We will continue to monitor mesoscale/
model trends for clues as to where any heavier swath of rainfall
may set up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the
Caribbean and extended across much of the Gulf of Mexico and into
portions of the Atlantic. A shortwave trough was working across
parts of the OH and TN Valleys while another sharper shortwave
trough extends from the Dakotas to the vicinity of the Ozarks.
Further west, additional shortwaves were moving swiftly in
westerly flow downstream of an upper level low and broad troughing
over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a wavy frontal zone
extended from the Carolinas across the southern Appalachians to
portions of middle to eastern TN and then to the Southern Plains
to lee of the Rockies. Locally, where breaks in the clouds were
occurring near the TN and VA border, temperatures were in the low
to mid 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures ranged from the mid and upper
30s north to the 40s and 50s further south and southeast with the
exception of the areas receiving sunshine.

This evening and tonight, the initial shortwave trough will move
across the area early this evening with the more robust shortwave
trough working to the MS to Lower OH Valley late this evening and
then across parts of the Great Lakes to mid and Lower OH Valley
tonight. This should lead to an additional surface wave perhaps
developing along the boundary near the confluence of the OH and MS
Valleys which passes northwest of eastern KY and into eastern IN
by dawn on Thursday. This will lead the frontal zone lifting into
western and south central KY by late evening into the early part
of the overnight and then northeast across the area during the
remainder of the overnight. Per 12Z HREF, PW should climb above 1
inch peaking around 1.25 inches overnight. Limited instability
will reach into the region as the warm front lifts north, with
some surface based instability perhaps reaching to near the I 75
corridor and perhaps east along the KY and TN boundary. Shear near
the boundary will be favorable for some elevated rotating
cells/supercell formation which could result in enhanced rainfall
rates and gusty winds. Some hail likely under an inch or a stray
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Thunderstorms could train
across some areas per some high res model guidance with varying
locations, but generally south of I 64.

With some model runs such as the 12Z HRRR and 18Z having totals into
the 2 to 3 inch range in either eastern KY or the general vicinity
with HREF 24 hour QPF max in excess of 3 inches. Given the potential
for training of thunderstorms over areas that received the
heaviest rain last week, opted to hoist a Flood Watch mainly for a
flash flood threat though if this occurs it could evolve into
some stream or creek flooding from 10 PM EST this evening to 1 PM
EST on Thursday.

On Thursday, the second more robust shortwave trough will move
east of the area, with lingering westerly rather zonal flow from
the Rockies to the OH Valley region. Another subtle shortwave is
progged to follow moving across eastern KY late Thu into Thu
evening. The surface low should continue tracking north and
northeast of the area while the trailing cold front sags into
eastern KY during Thursday afternoon and then south of eastern KY
late Thu evening into Thu night. Chances for convection will
linger ahead of and near the boundary as it sags into the area and
as the next shortwave nears and passes. Some strong storms may
linger near dawn on Thursday, but should exit by mid morning.
However, showers and some thunderstorms will remain possible
until the front passes.

Temperatures will be coldest this evening and then should rise
tonight with the front lifting across eastern KY with upper 50s to
low 60s anticipated near dawn. Dewpoints should also rise into the
50s late tonight. Highs on Thursday will be milder areawide in the
60s averaging near 20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

An extremely active pattern on tap in the extended portion of the
forecast. Several storm systems will traverse the CONUS over the
weekend and into the middle of next week. Each of these systems
will bring widespread precipitation to eastern Kentucky as they
move through. The flow pattern aloft will feature a broad and
vigorous trough situated over southeastern Canada, weak ridging
just north of the border north of North Dakota and Montana. West
of there, a strong winter storm will be in place over Wyoming,
Montana, and parts of the four corners region. This system could
bring widespread snow to many areas, especially the mountains.
Further west, yet another storm system is expected to move onshore
in the Pacific Northwest, bringing a combination of coastal and
lower elevation rainfall, and high elevation snow. Another, less
potent looking storm, looks to be moving through the desert
southwest to begin the period. For our area, several models have a
nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from a storm over
the western Atlantic and across the Carolinas, Tennessee Valley,
central Mississippi Valley and into northern Texas. This boundary
is progged to link up with an area of low pressure that will then
send another frontal boundary northwestward to join up with wintry
system that will be centered over Wyoming.

We will begin the period with widespread rain showers moving into
and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as waves of low pressure
move eastward along the stationary front. This boundary will finally
begin moving as the Wyoming storms moves eastward across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes on Saturday. The cold front
associated with this system will push across our area Saturday and
Saturday night, and will bring widespread rain to us yet again. We
may even see a few thunderstorms moving through Saturday night as
the potent cold front races through the area. We will see all rain
to begin the period, as temperatures will be more than warm enough
for it. However, a major air mass change will occur on Sunday, as
much cooler air spills into the region behind the departing cold
front. In fact, daytimes from Sunday onward will max out in the 40s
for most areas. Locations along and north I64 might only reach the
upper 30s from Tuesday onward. With the introduction of colder air,
we will see chances for snow across portions of the area.

The first batch of rain should come to an end sometime early Sunday,
as the first cold front finally moves off to our southeast. We
should see a short window of dry, albeit cooler, weather Sunday into
Sunday evening. The break in the weather will be short lived, as a
southern stream storm system is forecast to move in from the south.
This system will bring more rain, and perhaps some snow, the area
Sunday night and Monday. The precipitation will become more and more
widespread late Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday, as another more
potent system moves in from the Plains. We should see primarily rain
on Monday, ahead of another oncoming cold front. Once boundary
passes through Monday night, enough cold air will spill in to allow
for a transition from rain to rain/snow mix to all snow. It looks
like the coldest air will remain confined to the I-64 corridor
Monday into early Tuesday morning, before the colder air retreats
north during the day, leading to the wintry precip following suit.
Initially, the rain/snow mix and snow will remain north of Highway
80s. After the precip lets up a bit Tuesday night, we will see
repeated rounds of rain, rain/snow mix/ and snow moving through the
area, as more waves of low pressure move through the. Light snow
accumulations will be possible in our far northern counties Monday
night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night, during repeated southward
intrusions of below freezing air. With quite a bit of uncertainty
still showing up in the models regarding storm tracks, temperatures,
and moisture amounts, we will continue go conservative with snowfall
amounts for our area.

In summary, the extended will be quite active, with multiple storm
systems moving through our neck of the woods. Multiple rounds of
rain will start things off over the weekend, with wintry
precipitation making a return the first half of next week, as
several southern intrusions of colder air occur. Weather hazards to
watch out for will be locally heavy rainfall and any issues caused
by accumulating snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

Very poor aviation conditions have set in for most of the forecast
area at TAF issuance time due to widespread showers and
thunderstorms associated with an lifting warm front. Some of the
storms could produce isolated instances of hail and might also
contain strong wind gusts. As winds aloft have increased
substantially while sfc winds remain on the light side, LLWS from
the west at up to 50 kts will become a concern outside of any
thunderstorms. The LLWS will diminish on Thursday morning as a
cold front drops in from the northwest and brings the steadier
rainfall to an end. Ceilings could drop to IFR, or worse, at
times into the morning hours on Thursday in the storms before
slowly improving again to mainly MVFR during the afternoon.
Another system is expected to brush southwestern Kentucky with
additional lighter rainfall late Thursday evening into Thursday
night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
152 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-107-060730-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Johnson KY-Morgan KY-Bath KY-
152 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MORGAN...SOUTHEASTERN
BATH...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE...SOUTHERN ROWAN
AND ELLIOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EST...

At 152 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bangor, or 11 miles northeast of Frenchburg, moving east at 80 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Liberty, Sandy Hook, Wellington, Zag, Fannin Valley, Moon,
Elliottville, Yale, Lick Branch, Omer, Bangor, Ratlitt, Zilpo,
Wrigley, Pelfrey, Gillem Branch, Licking River, Pomp, Isonville, and
Elkfork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8309 3818 8305 3821 8301 3817 8298
      3817 8292 3811 8289 3809 8293 3805 8295
      3803 8300 3798 8302 3797 8299 3799 8297
      3800 8293 3797 8285 3790 8356 3811 8362
      3820 8328 3819 8324 3822 8322 3824 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 257DEG 69KT 3803 8344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
201 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ050-058>060-106-108-060730-
Montgomery KY-Menifee KY-Estill KY-Morgan KY-Powell KY-Wolfe KY-
201 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT POWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL...MENIFEE AND
NORTHWESTERN WOLFE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EST...

At 201 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vaughns Mill, or near Stanton, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Frenchburg, Clay City, Wellington, Campsites in the Indian
Creek area of the Daniel Boone National Forrest, Bowen, Rexville,
Kimbrell, Pekin, Omer, Fagan, Virden, Vaughns Mill, Hardwick, Mariba,
Pomeroyton, Ezel, Knowlton, Haystack, and Gosneyville.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 15
and 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8340 3780 8334 3775 8401 3784 8403
      3784 8402 3783 8402 3784 8400 3787 8403
      3787 8402 3786 8401 3788 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 258DEG 57KT 3782 8392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
230 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ107-109-110-112-060800-
Breathitt KY-Floyd KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-
230 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...NORTHERN BREATHITT AND CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 AM EST...

At 230 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keck, or near Jackson, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Salyersville, Mason, Simpson, Fredville, Carver, Burning
Fork, Noctor, Rock Lick, Vancleve, West Royalton Station, Carver
Station, Moct, Wilhurst, War Creek, Swamp Branch, Riceville,
Elkatawa, Gapville, and Inverness.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 74
and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8350 3764 8352 3765 8350 3762 8349
      3763 8346 3766 8343 3768 8334 3768 8329
      3767 8326 3770 8324 3778 8290 3757 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 257DEG 57KT 3760 8337

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC