Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Jackson, KY

425 
WGUS73 KJKL 061239
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
739 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYC011-063-069-165-173-205-061500-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250206T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bath KY-Elliott KY-Fleming KY-Menifee KY-Montgomery KY-Rowan KY-
739 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS 
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN BATH, NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT, SOUTHEASTERN 
FLEMING, NORTH CENTRAL MENIFEE, CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND ROWAN 
COUNTIES...

At 739 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain had exited off to the southeast; however, excessive runoff from 
previous heavy rainfall will continue to cause flash flooding in the 
warned area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mount Sterling, Morehead, Owingsville, Marshall, Camargo, Salt 
  Lick, Farmers, Freestone, Bluestone, Midland, Ramey, Cogswell, 
  Moore's Ferry, Yale, Brandy, Zilpo, Young Springs, Sharkey, Hilda 
  and Clearfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 8405 3832 8334 3829 8333 3825 8331
      3821 8330 3821 8329 3819 8326 3819 8323
      3824 8322 3827 8316 3818 8304 3813 8310
      3809 8326 3811 8327 3809 8330 3806 8340
      3799 8400

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GEOGERIAN

416 
WGUS73 KJKL 061440
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
940 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYC011-063-069-165-173-205-061450-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250206T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bath KY-Elliott KY-Fleming KY-Menifee KY-Montgomery KY-Rowan KY-
940 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BATH, NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT, 
SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING, NORTH CENTRAL MENIFEE, CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND 
ROWAN COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

The heaviest rain has ended and flash flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat; however, minor flooding of low lying areas will 
continue through the rest of the morning. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 8405 3832 8334 3829 8333 3825 8331
      3821 8330 3821 8329 3819 8326 3819 8323
      3824 8322 3827 8316 3818 8304 3813 8310
      3809 8326 3811 8327 3809 8330 3806 8340
      3799 8400

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
515 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally well above normal temperatures will prevail through
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms will be around through the evening. Some of the
  stronger storms could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and
  locally heavy rains - leading to isolated flash flooding.

- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with an
  increasing flood risk, and the potential for wintry
  precipitation at times for some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 515 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

09Z sfc analysis shows a developing area of low pressure moving
through central Kentucky with a warm front lifting into eastern
parts of the state and a trailing cold front forming to the west.
This boundary has helped to focus the ample moisture that was
advected into the area overnight with training showers and storms
through the northern portion of the JKL CWA. A trend to settle
slowly southeast following the instability during these pre-dawn
hours is also noted. Watching for rotation with the southern
extent of these storms given the high shear and favorable CAMs
outlook. However, the training strong thunderstorms have been
mainly a flooding problem with instances reported south of I-64
and near the Mountain Parkway, so far. The Flood Watch for this
system remains in effect through 1 pm. Otherwise, temperatures
vary from around 40 degrees in the north to the mid 60s south.
Dewpoints are similarly split ranging from around 40 north to the
lower 60s in the south. Meanwhile, away from any storms, winds are
running from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around
25 mph in the warm sector but lighter to the northeast and
variable. The latest IR satellite images show the coldest cloud
tops associated with the main storms moving steadily east through
the JKL CWA with more scattered colder pockets to the west with
the nascent cold front. This initial active period will fade to a
lull over the next hour or so but more activity is progged
towards dawn coming out of central Kentucky with that front.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a wave passing just to the north of the
state this morning and responsible for the storms currently
plaguing the area. This is moving past in fast zonal mid level
flow initially, but also turning to slightly northwesterly by
evening on account of the larger trough digging through the Great
Lakes. This will maintain the lower 5h heights over the area into
Friday with additional, weaker energy inbound from the Central
Plains. The net result of this pattern evolution is to keep the
state right in the midst of the storm track through this part of
the country for the short term and beyond. The model spread aloft
continues to be small making the NBM a reasonable starting point
for the forecast grids, though with some adjustments for PoPs
today to incorporate the latest CAM thoughts.

Sensible weather features the storminess of the morning eventually
giving way to drying out from northwest to southeast following
the system's cold front dropping through this part of the state.
This boundary does slow, or even stall, towards evening on
account of a trailing sfc wave that will continue a shower and
storm threat for at least the southern parts of the area into the
evening. The rest of the system will gradually clear out around
midnight for our far southeast parts - nearer to the Virgnia and
Tennessee borders. After a warmer day due to the southwesterly
winds this morning we will see another chilly night with enough
clearing expected - at least north - for radiational cooling and
terrain distinctions. Friday starts out sunny but will see clouds
increasing for the afternoon as the boundary to the south starts
to come back north with some light rain possible late in the
afternoon and into the evening.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the PoPs today per the latest CAMs guidance. Did not
deviate too far from the NBM temperatures aside from allowing for
a bit of terrain distinction to show up in the northern, and
expected to be clearer, parts of the area tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

An extremely active pattern on tap in the extended portion of the
forecast. Several storm systems will traverse the CONUS over the
weekend and into the middle of next week. Each of these systems
will bring widespread precipitation to eastern Kentucky as they
move through. The flow pattern aloft will feature a broad and
vigorous trough situated over southeastern Canada, weak ridging
just north of the border north of North Dakota and Montana. West
of there, a strong winter storm will be in place over Wyoming,
Montana, and parts of the four corners region. This system could
bring widespread snow to many areas, especially the mountains.
Further west, yet another storm system is expected to move onshore
in the Pacific Northwest, bringing a combination of coastal and
lower elevation rainfall, and high elevation snow. Another, less
potent looking storm, looks to be moving through the desert
southwest to begin the period. For our area, several models have a
nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from a storm over
the western Atlantic and across the Carolinas, Tennessee Valley,
central Mississippi Valley and into northern Texas. This boundary
is progged to link up with an area of low pressure that will then
send another frontal boundary northwestward to join up with wintry
system that will be centered over Wyoming.

We will begin the period with widespread rain showers moving into
and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as waves of low pressure
move eastward along the stationary front. This boundary will finally
begin moving as the Wyoming storms moves eastward across the
northern Plains and into the Great Lakes on Saturday. The cold front
associated with this system will push across our area Saturday and
Saturday night, and will bring widespread rain to us yet again. We
may even see a few thunderstorms moving through Saturday night as
the potent cold front races through the area. We will see all rain
to begin the period, as temperatures will be more than warm enough
for it. However, a major air mass change will occur on Sunday, as
much cooler air spills into the region behind the departing cold
front. In fact, daytimes from Sunday onward will max out in the 40s
for most areas. Locations along and north I64 might only reach the
upper 30s from Tuesday onward. With the introduction of colder air,
we will see chances for snow across portions of the area.

The first batch of rain should come to an end sometime early Sunday,
as the first cold front finally moves off to our southeast. We
should see a short window of dry, albeit cooler, weather Sunday into
Sunday evening. The break in the weather will be short lived, as a
southern stream storm system is forecast to move in from the south.
This system will bring more rain, and perhaps some snow, the area
Sunday night and Monday. The precipitation will become more and more
widespread late Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday, as another more
potent system moves in from the Plains. We should see primarily rain
on Monday, ahead of another oncoming cold front. Once boundary
passes through Monday night, enough cold air will spill in to allow
for a transition from rain to rain/snow mix to all snow. It looks
like the coldest air will remain confined to the I-64 corridor
Monday into early Tuesday morning, before the colder air retreats
north during the day, leading to the wintry precip following suit.
Initially, the rain/snow mix and snow will remain north of Highway
80s. After the precip lets up a bit Tuesday night, we will see
repeated rounds of rain, rain/snow mix/ and snow moving through the
area, as more waves of low pressure move through the. Light snow
accumulations will be possible in our far northern counties Monday
night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night, during repeated southward
intrusions of below freezing air. With quite a bit of uncertainty
still showing up in the models regarding storm tracks, temperatures,
and moisture amounts, we will continue go conservative with snowfall
amounts for our area.

In summary, the extended will be quite active, with multiple storm
systems moving through our neck of the woods. Multiple rounds of
rain will start things off over the weekend, with wintry
precipitation making a return the first half of next week, as
several southern intrusions of colder air occur. Weather hazards to
watch out for will be locally heavy rainfall and any issues caused
by accumulating snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST THU FEB 6 2025

Very poor aviation conditions have set in for most of the forecast
area at TAF issuance time due to widespread showers and
thunderstorms associated with an lifting warm front. Some of the
storms could produce isolated instances of hail and might also
contain strong wind gusts. As winds aloft have increased
substantially while sfc winds remain on the light side, LLWS from
the west at up to 50 kts will become a concern outside of any
thunderstorms. The LLWS will diminish on Thursday morning as a
cold front drops in from the northwest and brings the steadier
rainfall to an end. Ceilings could drop to IFR, or worse, at
times into the morning hours on Thursday in the storms before
slowly improving again to mainly MVFR during the afternoon.
Another system is expected to brush southwestern Kentucky with
additional lighter rainfall late Thursday evening into Thursday
night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-070845-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
345 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely throughout the area this morning. Any of the
stronger storms could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and locally
heavy rain - leading to the potential for localized flash flooding.
An isolated tornado is also possible early, mainly for areas near
and west of Interstate 75.

Thunderstorm chances then sink south through the afternoon but
slow down and linger near the Virginia border through the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening. These storms could also
produce locally heavy rain leading to instances of flooding.

Heavy rain is also possible Monday night and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in any reports of flooding or severe
weather today.

GREIF/AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
503 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ110-120-061045-
Floyd KY-Pike KY-
503 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FLOYD AND CENTRAL PIKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM EST...

At 503 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Langley, or 10 miles south of Prestonsburg, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Estill, Coal Run Village, Martin, Wayland, Allen, East
McDowell, Meta, Jamboree, Hippo, Fishtrap Lake, Glo, Garden Village,
Printer, Aluba, McDowell, Betsy Layne, Toonerville, Ivel, and
Honaker.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 13.
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 11.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 10.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 15 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8225 3745 8283 3746 8283 3747 8284
      3748 8289 3763 8285 3757 8214 3755 8213
      3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202
      3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 279DEG 54KT 3754 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
513 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ110-113-119-120-061100-
Martin KY-Floyd KY-Pike KY-Knott KY-
513 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN...NORTHERN
KNOTT...SOUTHERN FLOYD AND PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM EST...

At 513 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Delbarton to Meta to East McDowell to
Elmrock. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Estill, Coal Run Village, Elkhorn City, Wheelwright, Pippa
Passes, Forest Hills, Wayland, Meta, Jamboree, Buck, Handshoe, Glo,
Garden Village, McDowell, Piso, Blue Moon, Osborn, Jarad, and Biggs.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 2.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 11 and 20.
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 24.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County between mile markers 1 and 5.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Lethcher County near mile marker 7.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 0 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8235 3720 8255 3745 8313 3746 8313
      3750 8280 3763 8256 3779 8235 3776 8231
      3774 8233 3767 8230 3765 8223 3762 8221
      3765 8218 3762 8218 3758 8213 3755 8213
      3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 292DEG 44KT 3776 8220 3758 8246 3745 8272 3743
8302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
524 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 AM     Flash Flood      Clay City               37.86N 83.93W
02/06/2025                   Powell             KY   NWS Employee

            A weather service employee called to report
            that water from Brush Creek was flowing over
            Main Street near the car lot in Clay City
            near exit 16.

&&

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
541 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     Flash Flood      Clay City               37.86N 83.93W
02/06/2025                   Powell             KY   Public

            A member of the Lexington, KY news media
            posted a picture on Facebook of flooding
            near Clay City. Water was completely
            covering the Mountain Parkway near the Clay
            City overpass.

&&

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
622 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

KYZ050-051-059-060-061145-
Montgomery KY-Menifee KY-Bath KY-Powell KY-
622 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN POWELL...MONTGOMERY...
SOUTH CENTRAL BATH AND WESTERN MENIFEE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM EST...

At 621 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winchester, or 12 miles west of Mount Sterling, moving east at 60
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Stanton, Frenchburg, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Clay
City, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone National
Forrest, Clay Lick, Means, Levee, Preston, Cornwell, Rothwell,
Walkers Crossing, Olympia Springs, Cedar Groves, Coons Station,
Stepstone, Bean, and Waltersville.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 12 and 16, and
near mile marker 27.
 Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 105 and 113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EST for east central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 8363 3783 8365 3787 8403 3787 8402
      3788 8400 3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397
      3808 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 269DEG 51KT 3799 8417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
623 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     Flash Flood      Frenchburg              37.95N 83.62W
02/06/2025                   Menifee            KY   911 Call Center

            Water was observed flowing across Hwy 1274
            and Main St in Frenchburg and also over Hwy
            460 in Means. These roads were not
            completely closed, but the Menifee County
            Highway Dept did have to put up barricades
            to keep folks from driving into the flooded
            parts of the roads.

&&

AR