Severe Thunderstorm Warning 374, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
506 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Through Thursday...

A ridge will stay anchored off to our east which will cause an
overall stagnation in the regime and entrench westerly mid to upper
level flow. Rinse and repeat strong or severe afternoon
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday with bouts of MCSs
making their way into the CWA from the west. In tandem with these
MCSs (driven by upper level waves traversing the synoptic pattern)
there will be a lingering boundary lying through the area which will
aid in our low level lift/initiation. Uncertainty remains over
embedded severe storm density associated with the aforementioned
MCS/MCS remnants. Should an upstream MCS hold together while it
makes its way over Louisiana, our severe storm coverage will be
fairly dense. Conversely, if an MCS struggles to remain organized
upstream that will then cause a subsequent downwards trend in the
total amount of convective cells producing damaging winds and hail.
Where there is general agreement among the model outputs is that
areas along and south of I-20 will see the most active weather over
the next few days. This increased area of confidence is reflected in
the several graphics/products we have issued.

Friday Onwards...

A welcome regime change is on the horizon for our area as a deep low
spinning up in Nebraska is expected to travel east through the Ohio
River Valley by the late week. Trailing from this low will be a
robust cold front sweeping through the area Friday afternoon. As a
result of the active early week siphoning off moisture/energy ahead
of this front pushing through there does not seem to be any risk for
widespread thunderstorm activity. Should dewpoints rebound higher
than expected this forecast could change, but that looks unlikely at
this time. Once the front clears the area some time early Saturday
expect moderated highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid to high
60s and benign conditions to finish out the period./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

In the wake of earlier rainfall, a mix of low stratus and patchy
BR will lead to possible MVFR to LIFR conditions through around
15Z today. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop and move east across a portion of the forecast area
after 12Z, and generally decrease by around 00Z Wednesday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  85  67 /  90  30  50  50
Meridian      85  66  85  66 /  90  40  50  50
Vicksburg     82  68  84  67 /  90  20  50  50
Hattiesburg   89  70  87  69 /  90  50  70  50
Natchez       84  68  83  67 /  90  30  60  50
Greenville    78  66  82  67 /  80  20  30  40
Greenwood     79  66  84  67 /  80  20  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

OAJ/OAJ/NF

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
844 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Natchez            31.53N 91.40W
05/27/2025                   Adams              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Scattered trees down around Natchez. One
            tree down on a home, another tree down on 3
            vehicles, another tree down on a comms
            trailer.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
849 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ043-044-050-271430-
Scott MS-Leake MS-Madison MS-
849 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LEAKE...SCOTT AND NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM CDT...

At 849 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Way to near Ludlow to near Branch to
Polkville. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Morton, Lena, Pulaski, Farmhaven, Forkville, and Ludlow around 855
  AM CDT.
  Forest, Hillsboro, Harperville, and Camden around 900 AM CDT.
  Carthage, Tuscola, and Cameron around 905 AM CDT.
  Walnut Grove, Redwater, Standing Pine, and Steele around 910 AM
  CDT.
  Lake, Sebastopol, and Thomastown around 915 AM CDT.
  Madden around 920 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 8932 3232 8940 3222 8968 3222 8973
      3237 8973 3258 8978 3259 8979 3258 8986
      3270 9010 3275 9004 3282 9002 3288 8997
      3288 8973 3293 8973 3293 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 237DEG 37KT 3269 9004 3258 8977 3240 8970 3220
8969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
903 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ056-057-065-066-073-074-271445-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Lamar MS-Jasper MS-Forrest MS-
903 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
FORREST...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...EASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN LAMAR AND
JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 903 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stringer to 6 miles west of Oak Grove.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hattiesburg, Laurel, West Hattiesburg, Ellisville, Oak Grove,
  Rawls Springs, Soso, Moselle, Eastabuchie, and Moss around 910 AM
  CDT.
  Petal around 915 AM CDT.
  Sandersville, Heidelberg, Tuckers Crossing, Sunrise, and Macedonia
  around 920 AM CDT.
  Mill Creek and Stafford Springs around 925 AM CDT.
  Ovett around 930 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
central, southeastern and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8965 3187 8944 3202 8927 3203 8891
      3183 8891 3182 8894 3143 8894 3143 8914
      3117 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1403Z 266DEG 40KT 3184 8929 3128 8952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Larto             31.34N 91.88W
05/27/2025                   Catahoula          LA   Emergency Mngr

            A few trees and large limbs down in the S
            part of the parish, some power out.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ050-051-056-057-271445-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-
906 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JASPER...NEWTON...
NORTHERN SMITH AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 906 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burns, or 9 miles north of Raleigh, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Homewood and Pineville around 910 AM CDT.
  Lake and Roberts around 920 AM CDT.
  Newton and Lawrence around 925 AM CDT.
  Decatur around 935 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8963 3221 8972 3236 8934 3258 8933
      3258 8909 3220 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 241DEG 44KT 3216 8955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC