Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
506 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Through Thursday...

A ridge will stay anchored off to our east which will cause an
overall stagnation in the regime and entrench westerly mid to upper
level flow. Rinse and repeat strong or severe afternoon
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday with bouts of MCSs
making their way into the CWA from the west. In tandem with these
MCSs (driven by upper level waves traversing the synoptic pattern)
there will be a lingering boundary lying through the area which will
aid in our low level lift/initiation. Uncertainty remains over
embedded severe storm density associated with the aforementioned
MCS/MCS remnants. Should an upstream MCS hold together while it
makes its way over Louisiana, our severe storm coverage will be
fairly dense. Conversely, if an MCS struggles to remain organized
upstream that will then cause a subsequent downwards trend in the
total amount of convective cells producing damaging winds and hail.
Where there is general agreement among the model outputs is that
areas along and south of I-20 will see the most active weather over
the next few days. This increased area of confidence is reflected in
the several graphics/products we have issued.

Friday Onwards...

A welcome regime change is on the horizon for our area as a deep low
spinning up in Nebraska is expected to travel east through the Ohio
River Valley by the late week. Trailing from this low will be a
robust cold front sweeping through the area Friday afternoon. As a
result of the active early week siphoning off moisture/energy ahead
of this front pushing through there does not seem to be any risk for
widespread thunderstorm activity. Should dewpoints rebound higher
than expected this forecast could change, but that looks unlikely at
this time. Once the front clears the area some time early Saturday
expect moderated highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid to high
60s and benign conditions to finish out the period./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

In the wake of earlier rainfall, a mix of low stratus and patchy
BR will lead to possible MVFR to LIFR conditions through around
15Z today. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop and move east across a portion of the forecast area
after 12Z, and generally decrease by around 00Z Wednesday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  85  67 /  90  30  50  50
Meridian      85  66  85  66 /  90  40  50  50
Vicksburg     82  68  84  67 /  90  20  50  50
Hattiesburg   89  70  87  69 /  90  50  70  50
Natchez       84  68  83  67 /  90  30  60  50
Greenville    78  66  82  67 /  80  20  30  40
Greenwood     79  66  84  67 /  80  20  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

OAJ/OAJ/NF