Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
506 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Through Thursday...

A ridge will stay anchored off to our east which will cause an
overall stagnation in the regime and entrench westerly mid to upper
level flow. Rinse and repeat strong or severe afternoon
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday with bouts of MCSs
making their way into the CWA from the west. In tandem with these
MCSs (driven by upper level waves traversing the synoptic pattern)
there will be a lingering boundary lying through the area which will
aid in our low level lift/initiation. Uncertainty remains over
embedded severe storm density associated with the aforementioned
MCS/MCS remnants. Should an upstream MCS hold together while it
makes its way over Louisiana, our severe storm coverage will be
fairly dense. Conversely, if an MCS struggles to remain organized
upstream that will then cause a subsequent downwards trend in the
total amount of convective cells producing damaging winds and hail.
Where there is general agreement among the model outputs is that
areas along and south of I-20 will see the most active weather over
the next few days. This increased area of confidence is reflected in
the several graphics/products we have issued.

Friday Onwards...

A welcome regime change is on the horizon for our area as a deep low
spinning up in Nebraska is expected to travel east through the Ohio
River Valley by the late week. Trailing from this low will be a
robust cold front sweeping through the area Friday afternoon. As a
result of the active early week siphoning off moisture/energy ahead
of this front pushing through there does not seem to be any risk for
widespread thunderstorm activity. Should dewpoints rebound higher
than expected this forecast could change, but that looks unlikely at
this time. Once the front clears the area some time early Saturday
expect moderated highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid to high
60s and benign conditions to finish out the period./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

In the wake of earlier rainfall, a mix of low stratus and patchy
BR will lead to possible MVFR to LIFR conditions through around
15Z today. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop and move east across a portion of the forecast area
after 12Z, and generally decrease by around 00Z Wednesday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  85  67 /  90  30  50  50
Meridian      85  66  85  66 /  90  40  50  50
Vicksburg     82  68  84  67 /  90  20  50  50
Hattiesburg   89  70  87  69 /  90  50  70  50
Natchez       84  68  83  67 /  90  30  60  50
Greenville    78  66  82  67 /  80  20  30  40
Greenwood     79  66  84  67 /  80  20  30  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-034-035-
     040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

OAJ/OAJ/NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
521 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ049-055>057-271100-
Smith MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
521 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL JASPER...SOUTHERN
RANKIN...NORTHERN SIMPSON AND CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM
CDT...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Whites to near
Martinville. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mendenhall, D'Lo, Braxton, Star, Piney Woods, and Martinville
  around 525 AM CDT.
  Puckett and Cato around 530 AM CDT.
  White Oak around 535 AM CDT.
  Raleigh and Johns around 540 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8918 3183 8972 3202 9023 3202 9024
      3203 9025 3204 9023 3209 9023 3209 9025
      3210 9024 3211 9025 3212 9024 3214 9025
      3218 9023 3220 9018 3223 9019 3223 9020
      3229 9017 3229 9015 3231 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 246DEG 27KT 3205 9014 3193 8973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

MSZ051-056-057-271130-
Smith MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-
604 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN JASPER...SOUTH CENTRAL
NEWTON AND EASTERN SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM CDT...

At 604 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Louin, or 7 miles northwest of Bay Springs, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Louin, Montrose, and Turnerville around 610 AM CDT.
  Roberts around 615 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
central and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8949 3208 8959 3234 8903 3211 8891
      3209 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 246DEG 30KT 3208 8934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NF