Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1242 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A line of severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front has
entered the area, and is set to slowly slide through the area
tonight. This line has already produced quarter size hail and
winds around 50mph and some tornadic signatures. The line is set
to make its way into the I-20 corridor around midnight and
continue to progress southward, exiting the CWA by sunrise. This
line is expected to maintain its severe elements throughout the
night so it is advised to monitor all avenues of weather
information until the front passes by your particular
location of interest./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Through Tonight:

No changes are needed with this update to the current forecast for
this afternoon into overnight. The Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place, with possible damaging wind, large
hail, and even isolated tornadoes with severe storms that develop.
Latest observations and satellite imagery show the continued
convective evolution of cumulus deck across the area as temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few initial showers
have already developed. The mixed layer atop this moist boundary
layer will support stronger updrafts as this afternoon and evening
progress. Convergence in vicinity of the approaching cold front and
with some more subtle boundaries of convergence will be the areas of
focus for showers and storms into the overnight. 700-500mb lapse
rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km are in place atop the corridor of 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE extending from South Texas into Northwest Mississippi,
and vertical totals of 28-30 align with large hail potential.
Upscale growth from afternoon/evening thunderstorms will result in
better damaging wind gust and isolated tornado potential along cold
pool boundaries, especially if any bowing segment can become more
favorably aligned with low-level wind shear.

POPs will largely drop off by Monday morning, however the lingering
front may keep some chance for showers in the Pine Belt of Southeast
MS through late morning.

Monday through Sunday:

We are starting to enter the time of year where these fronts don't
quite clear the region and better upper-level forcing pulls
northward. The upper-level pattern through the remainder of the week
will feature western ridging and eastern troughing with northwest
flow between. Meanwhile at the surface, moist unstable air will
remain around the western Gulf, ready to be pulled northward again
with any passing wave. Models hint at potential disturbances with
the frontal zone lingering around the Gulf Coast region through
midweek, and this can sometimes allow upstream MCS thunderstorm
activity to propagate southeast into our area. Otherwise, it will be
in the Friday-Saturday time frame when the upper-level pattern
breaks down some and allows a stronger weave to move across the
central CONUS and bring better chances for thunderstorms. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out at the end of this week, though
confidence in coverage and timing was too low to include in the most
recent Days 4-7 severe weather outlook. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA along HWY 82 wl continue to spread
south through 12Z resulting in reduced flying conditions. This
convection is ahead of a cold front that will drift through the
area and bring a wind shift to the nw-n. The south will take the
longest to improve to VFR Mon but by 20Z, VFR conditions are
expected areawide and VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  82  56  77 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      51  82  53  77 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     54  82  57  77 /   0   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   55  84  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       56  82  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    52  80  56  73 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     51  80  56  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

OAJ/NF/22

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
132 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             Ethel                   33.12N 89.47W
03/23/2025  E1.00 Inch       Attala             MS   Public

            Hail accumulated on the ground. Report via
            pictures submitted on social media.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
140 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

LAZ024>026-MSZ053-059-060-240745-
Tensas LA-Catahoula LA-Concordia LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-
Claiborne MS-
140 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TENSAS...NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA
AND NORTHEASTERN CATAHOULA PARISHES...CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 140 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Somerset to 7 miles east of Harrisonburg.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lee Bayou, Waterproof, Port Gibson, Hermanville, Lorman, St. Joseph,
Fayette, Spokane, Clayton, Stampley, Red Lick, Helena, Lake Bruin,
Church Hill, Pattison, Newellton, Cooter Point, Alcorn State, and
Somerset.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 9160 3193 9151 3196 9153 3220 9132
      3216 9117 3213 9116 3213 9107 3210 9100
      3210 9096 3208 9095 3208 9092 3210 9091
      3204 9072 3202 9072 3161 9107 3161 9115
      3174 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 282DEG 43KT 3219 9129 3174 9170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
143 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

MSZ049>051-055>057-240745-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Newton MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
143 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON...
NORTHERN SMITH AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Forkville to Polkville to Star. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Homewood, Raleigh, Cato, Puckett, Lawrence, Lake, Montrose, Roberts,
Pulaski, Steele, Piney Woods, Newton, Louin, Pineville, Polkville,
White Oak, Forest, Conehatta, and Burns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8902 3207 8923 3196 8959 3205 9009
      3214 8976 3217 8973 3222 8973 3222 8968
      3252 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 286DEG 32KT 3251 8959 3219 8972 3209 9004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DL

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