Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
833 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A line of severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front has
entered the area, and is set to slowly slide through the area
tonight. This line has already produced quarter size hail and
winds around 50mph and some tornadic signatures. The line is set
to make its way into the I-20 corridor around midnight and
continue to progress southward, exiting the CWA by sunrise. This
line is expected to maintain its severe elements throughout the
night so it is advised to monitor all avenues of weather
information until the front passes by your particular
location of interest./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Through Tonight:

No changes are needed with this update to the current forecast for
this afternoon into overnight. The Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place, with possible damaging wind, large
hail, and even isolated tornadoes with severe storms that develop.
Latest observations and satellite imagery show the continued
convective evolution of cumulus deck across the area as temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few initial showers
have already developed. The mixed layer atop this moist boundary
layer will support stronger updrafts as this afternoon and evening
progress. Convergence in vicinity of the approaching cold front and
with some more subtle boundaries of convergence will be the areas of
focus for showers and storms into the overnight. 700-500mb lapse
rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km are in place atop the corridor of 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE extending from South Texas into Northwest Mississippi,
and vertical totals of 28-30 align with large hail potential.
Upscale growth from afternoon/evening thunderstorms will result in
better damaging wind gust and isolated tornado potential along cold
pool boundaries, especially if any bowing segment can become more
favorably aligned with low-level wind shear.

POPs will largely drop off by Monday morning, however the lingering
front may keep some chance for showers in the Pine Belt of Southeast
MS through late morning.

Monday through Sunday:

We are starting to enter the time of year where these fronts don't
quite clear the region and better upper-level forcing pulls
northward. The upper-level pattern through the remainder of the week
will feature western ridging and eastern troughing with northwest
flow between. Meanwhile at the surface, moist unstable air will
remain around the western Gulf, ready to be pulled northward again
with any passing wave. Models hint at potential disturbances with
the frontal zone lingering around the Gulf Coast region through
midweek, and this can sometimes allow upstream MCS thunderstorm
activity to propagate southeast into our area. Otherwise, it will be
in the Friday-Saturday time frame when the upper-level pattern
breaks down some and allows a stronger weave to move across the
central CONUS and bring better chances for thunderstorms. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out at the end of this week, though
confidence in coverage and timing was too low to include in the most
recent Days 4-7 severe weather outlook. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail across much of the area, though an MVFR
stratus deck encompasses portions of south MS and south LA.
Numerous severe storms are ongoing across portions of central and
north MS, southeast AR, and northeast LA ahead of an approaching
cold front. These will continue into the night, with hail up to
2" and severe wind gusts of 50-60 kt possible in the storms. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Storms will end overnight into
early Monday morning and winds will shift to N/NW as the front
pushes southeastward across the area. Conditions are expected to
return to VFR during the morning in most areas Monday. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  75  52  81 / 100  10   0   0
Meridian      58  75  50  81 /  90  20   0   0
Vicksburg     57  75  52  82 /  90   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  79  54  84 /  80  60   0   0
Natchez       59  77  55  81 /  90  10   0   0
Greenville    51  71  51  80 /  90   0   0   0
Greenwood     53  73  51  80 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/DL/DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
826 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Itta Bena           33.47N 90.32W
03/23/2025                   Leflore            MS   Emergency Mngr

            3 power poles down.

&&

CE

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