Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Through Tonight:

No changes are needed with this update to the current forecast for
this afternoon into overnight. The Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms remains in place, with possible damaging wind, large
hail, and even isolated tornadoes with severe storms that develop.
Latest observations and satellite imagery show the continued
convective evolution of cumulus deck across the area as temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few initial showers
have already developed. The mixed layer atop this moist boundary
layer will support stronger updrafts as this afternoon and evening
progress. Convergence in vicinity of the approaching cold front and
with some more subtle boundaries of convergence will be the areas of
focus for showers and storms into the overnight. 700-500mb lapse
rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km are in place atop the corridor of 1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE extending from South Texas into Northwest Mississippi,
and vertical totals of 28-30 align with large hail potential.
Upscale growth from afternoon/evening thunderstorms will result in
better damaging wind gust and isolated tornado potential along cold
pool boundaries, especially if any bowing segment can become more
favorably aligned with low-level wind shear.

POPs will largely drop off by Monday morning, however the lingering
front may keep some chance for showers in the Pine Belt of Southeast
MS through late morning.

Monday through Sunday:

We are starting to enter the time of year where these fronts don't
quite clear the region and better upper-level forcing pulls
northward. The upper-level pattern through the remainder of the week
will feature western ridging and eastern troughing with northwest
flow between. Meanwhile at the surface, moist unstable air will
remain around the western Gulf, ready to be pulled northward again
with any passing wave. Models hint at potential disturbances with
the frontal zone lingering around the Gulf Coast region through
midweek, and this can sometimes allow upstream MCS thunderstorm
activity to propagate southeast into our area. Otherwise, it will be
in the Friday-Saturday time frame when the upper-level pattern
breaks down some and allows a stronger weave to move across the
central CONUS and bring better chances for thunderstorms. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out at the end of this week, though
confidence in coverage and timing was too low to include in the most
recent Days 4-7 severe weather outlook. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail across much of the area, though an MVFR
stratus deck encompasses portions of south MS and south LA.
Numerous severe storms are ongoing across portions of central and
north MS, southeast AR, and northeast LA ahead of an approaching
cold front. These will continue into the night, with hail up to
2" and severe wind gusts of 50-60 kt possible in the storms. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Storms will end overnight into
early Monday morning and winds will shift to N/NW as the front
pushes southeastward across the area. Conditions are expected to
return to VFR during the morning in most areas Monday. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  75  52  81 /  90  10   0   0
Meridian      58  75  50  81 /  90  20   0   0
Vicksburg     57  75  52  82 /  90   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   62  79  54  84 /  80  50   0   0
Natchez       59  77  55  81 /  80  20   0   0
Greenville    51  71  51  80 /  90   0   0   0
Greenwood     53  73  51  80 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
509 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

MSZ019-034-035-232315-
Washington MS-Humphreys MS-Sunflower MS-
509 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SUNFLOWER...CENTRAL WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wayside, or 8 miles northwest of Hollandale, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arcola, Darlove, Estill, Hollandale, Tribbett, and Leland around
  515 PM CDT.
  Holly Ridge and Indianola around 530 PM CDT.
  Inverness around 535 PM CDT.
  Moorhead around 545 PM CDT.
  Sunflower around 555 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Arkansas...and central, north central and northwestern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 9045 3314 9100 3324 9106 3328 9105
      3328 9109 3330 9110 3353 9080 3353 9076
      3356 9076 3362 9068 3362 9066 3363 9066
      3379 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 243DEG 29KT 3326 9096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
538 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Hail             Pioneer                 32.74N 91.44W
03/23/2025  M1.25 Inch       West Carroll       LA   Public

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
549 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Hail             Bolton                  32.35N 90.46W
03/23/2025  E0.25 Inch       Hinds              MS   Law Enforcement

            Hail the size of pearls fell in Bolton.

&&

NF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
552 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Hail             Bolton                  32.35N 90.46W
03/23/2025  E0.75 Inch       Hinds              MS   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from Bolton.
            Hail up to the size of pennies fell in
            Bolton.

&&

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
558 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

LAZ009-MSZ040-041-232345-
East Carroll LA-Sharkey MS-Issaquena MS-
558 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL
PARISH...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND WESTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES THROUGH
645 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Providence, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Onward, Cary, Mayersville, and Fitler around 605 PM CDT.
  Rolling Fork around 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Louisiana...and west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 9120 3289 9120 3300 9078 3269 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 264DEG 24KT 3280 9111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
611 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Hail             1 S Pioneer             32.73N 91.44W
03/23/2025  M2.00 Inch       West Carroll       LA   Storm Chaser

            1.5 to 2.0 inch hail along hwy 17.

&&

CE