Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather is expected east of I-55 this
  evening. A few tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and isolated
  large hail 1.5 inches in diameter are possible with the
  strongest thunderstorms.

- Strong southerly winds will continue this evening, especially
  east of I-55 where gusts to 50 mph are expected.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to a risk
  for areas of flooding, especially in portions of east-central
  and southeast IL where a Flood Watch is in effect until Sunday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...Severe Weather Today...

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to develop along and
just east of I-55 this afternoon as a moisture and instability
rich warm sector of a potent low pressure system resides over the
area. Up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 60+ kts effective bulk shear, and
over 200 m2/s2 effective storm relative helicity have prompted the
issuance of a tornado watch in this area. Current high-res models
suggest this activity should be near I-57 by 7 pm, and exit
central portions of IL into IN by 10 PM. Severe weather threats
include tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and large hail to 1.5
inch diameter.

...Strong Winds Today...
A Wind Advisory remains in effect across the area, with gusts to
50 mph noted east of I-55 this afternoon, and lighter gusts noted
to the west. West of the line of thunderstorms, winds will taper
off this evening, and the wind advisory will be able to be trimmed
down for western areas this evening.

...Flood Risk Across Southeast IL...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall can be expected for portions of
central and southeast IL through Saturday night, starting with
corridors of training thunderstorms that could exceed 2 inches
this evening. As the approaching cold front moves south of the
area late tonight, it will stall near the Ohio River for the next
few days allowing a series of disturbances to track along this
boundary. The first will focus south of I-70 Thursday night with
another inch or so. The second Friday into Friday night,
affecting a much larger portion of central IL, looks to produce 1
to 3 inches, but features more uncertainty in area. The peak
values in this wave looks to be between I-70 and I-72. Finally, a
third wave Saturday into Saturday night looks focused south of
I-70 with up to another 3 inches. Current projections are for
totals of 5 to 7 inches from Shelby to Edgar County southward
where a Flood Watch has been issued. Given uncertainty in
precipitation at this long range, have not expanded the Flood
Watch north of the Shelby to Edgar County corridor, but
conceivably it could expand northward if the Friday system
solidifies its high precipitation corridor farther north.

...Severe Weather Friday...

Friday afternoon and evening could see another round of severe
thunderstorms, especially south of I-70 where a Slight Risk has
been designated by SPC in response to several hundred J/kg CAPE
and strong deep layer shear.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thunderstorms have passed KSPI-KBMI, but linger near KDEC-KCMI
until 01Z-02Z. A cold front trailing just behind these
thunderstorms will cause winds to shift more westerly and
diminish this evening. A disturbance lifting
into the area Thursday afternoon into evening could produce light
rain over much of the area, but conditions are expected to remain
VFR. Winds SSW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts initially, becoming
WSW 8-12 kts by 05Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036-037-
040>042-047>051.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ038-043>046-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-031100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Scott-Morgan-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected the remainder of the afternoon.
The greatest threat of any severe weather will be near and east of
I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered storms are expected again Friday into Saturday night. A
few of these may strong to severe Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>053-031100-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Menard-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. A few tornadoes and wind gusts over 70 mph are the greatest
concern, though very large hail may occur with any storms that
remain isolated.

South winds will gust from 45 to 50 mph, causing difficult travel
for high profile vehicles, as well as localized blowing dust where
recent rain has not fallen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of heavy rain are expected through late week, most likely
from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

In addition, scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday night and
Saturday. A few of the storms will be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed until around 6 to 8 pm this
evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 60 mph.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will move into the area this evening. rapidly
move across east central Illinois this evening. A few tornadoes and
wind gusts over 70 mph are the greatest concern, though very large
hail may occur with any storms that remain isolated.

South winds will gust from 45 to 50 mph, causing difficult travel
for high profile vehicles, as well as localized blowing dust where
recent rain has not fallen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will produce potentially
over 5 inches of rain through Sunday morning. As a result, river
flooding is likely to develop, and flooding of land based areas are
also likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed from around 5 to 10 pm this
evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 60 mph.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
630 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Beecher City       39.15N 88.81W
04/02/2025                   Effingham          IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
631 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Louisville         38.74N 88.54W
04/02/2025  E50 MPH          Clay               IL   Amateur Radio

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
635 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mansfield               40.21N 88.51W
04/02/2025                   Piatt              IL   Broadcast Media

            Outbuildings damaged in Mansfield.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Farmer City         40.24N 88.60W
04/02/2025                   Piatt              IL   Broadcast Media

            Outbuilding damaged east of Farmer City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
641 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Rain             1 N Grandview           39.82N 89.62W
04/02/2025  M0.99 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Public

            Rainfall so far today in Springfield.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
647 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Lincoln            40.16N 89.39W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   Public

            Large tree branch down and in the road.

1026 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Lincoln           40.17N 89.37W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Roof ripped off Eaton manufacturing
            building.

1026 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincoln                 40.15N 89.36W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   Emergency Mngr

            2 powerlines down in Lincoln.

1026 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincoln                 40.15N 89.36W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   Public

            Tree down. Time estimated from radar.

1026 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincoln                 40.15N 89.36W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines down due to fallen trees at 1037
            N Jefferson St, 500 N Adam St and 829 N
            Hamilton.

1027 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Lincoln            40.17N 89.34W
04/02/2025                   Logan              IL   NWS Employee

            Semi blown over at exit 133 on I-55.

&&