Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant severe weather event will unfold later today. The
  highest probabilities (greater than 10% chance) for tornadoes
  continue to be focused along/southeast of a Champaign to
  Taylorville line this afternoon.

- Very strong southerly winds will develop today...with gusts
  reaching as high as 50-55mph along the I-57 corridor.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to a risk
  for excessive rainfall and flooding issues along and south of
  I-70...where a Flood Watch is in effect from this afternoon
  through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...Severe Weather Today...

08z/3am surface analysis shows a warm front extending from Kansas
to western Tennessee. Clusters of non-severe elevated convection
have developed well north of the boundary across central Illinois.
These storms will continue to shift steadily northward and will be
mostly N/NE of the KILX CWA by daybreak. Meanwhile further west, a
more significant line of convection has formed along a cold front
from eastern Kansas into Oklahoma. This line is expected to
continue tracking E/NE into the Illinois River Valley after 8am.
Forecast soundings suggest the convection will be elevated by the
time it arrives here: however, gusty winds and hail will be likely
with the strongest cells. Based on 06z HRRR/RAP data, it appears
the line will shift eastward to the I-55 corridor and weaken
somewhat by late morning...before renewed convection fires along
the leading edge/outflow by mid-afternoon. As has been seen by
the past several model runs, the most significant severe weather
risk will likely unfold east of the I-55 corridor this afternoon
as the cells become surface-based and interact with a moderately
unstable and highly sheared environment. While wind profiles will
become more unidirectional after the warm front lifts into the
southern Great Lakes, a very strong jet streak aloft will
contribute to impressive speed shear. As a result, think initial
storm mode will be supercellular...with a resulting large hail and
tornado risk. The cells will rapidly grow upscale into a line as
they push across the I-57 corridor...with a continued threat of
damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes
could potentially be strong, with the latest SPC outlook
highlighting a 10% or greater chance for an EF-2 or stronger
tornado along/southeast of a Champaign to Taylorville line. The
convective line will then rapidly push into Indiana and exit the
KILX CWA by early evening.

...Strong Winds Today...

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of central Illinois this
afternoon and for locations along/east of I-55 into the evening.
Wind gusts have consistently been in the 25-35mph range since last
evening and will remain at this magnitude through mid-morning when
forecast soundings indicate the low-level inversion will break
and higher momentum air from aloft will mix to the surface. Latest
regional VAD wind profilers show the 850mb jet streak has
increased to 65-70kt from the Ozarks northeastward into central
Illinois. The 00z NAM shows this powerful jet translating
northeastward today, and as the inversion erodes in the warm
sector...very strong winds will reach the surface. Based on the
expected location of the jet core, think wind gusts will be
maximized along the I-57 corridor from mid-morning through mid-
afternoon. HRRR has consistently shown gusts in the 45-50mph range
across this area, but would not be surprised to see a few gusts
perhaps as high as 60mph. Considered upgrading locations
along/east of I-57 to a High Wind Warning, but opted instead to
maintain the current Advisory and highlight peak wind gusts as
high as 55mph.

 ...Flood Risk Across Southeast Illinois...

The cold front will settle southward and stall across the Ohio
River Valley tonight as it becomes parallel to the upper level
flow. The boundary will remain quasi-stationary from tonight
through Saturday night before a pattern change pushes it well
south of the region by Sunday. Individual short-wave troughs
interacting with the boundary in conjunction with the nocturnal
low-level jet will lead to numerous rounds of showers and
thunderstorms focused across the Ohio River Valley. While the GFS
tends to keep the front locked in place and produces repeated
rains over the same locations, the ECMWF indicates the boundary
will waver north/south, resulting in rainfall more evenly
distributed. Whichever solution ultimately verifies, consensus
suggests an extreme rainfall event across the Ohio River Valley.
Current WPC QPF forecast keeps the most extreme rainfall amounts
mostly south of the KILX CWA closer to the Ohio River:however,
7-day amounts potentially greater than 5 inches come as far north
as a Danville to Taylorville line. Storm total rainfall steadily
decreases further N/NW, with 7-day accumulations of just 1-2
inches across the Illinois River Valley. Due to high confidence
for excessive rainfall and flooding, a Flood Watch will remain in
effect for locations along/south of I-70 from this afternoon
through Sunday morning.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Line of convection seen on 1030z/530am radar mosaic extending from
northern Missouri to eastern Kansas will track northeastward into
central Illinois this morning. Based on radar timing tools and the
latest HRRR/RAP output, have introduced predominant thunder at
KPIA/KSPI by 15z...then further east to KCMI by 17z. Once the
initial line passes, additional convection will re-develop along
the leading edge/outflow...leading to several hours of potential
thunder at the eastern terminals. Have therefore kept thunder
mention going at KDEC/KCMI until 23z. Once the convection departs,
low clouds will break up...leading to a partly to mostly clear
night. Winds will initially be E/SE at 15-20kt early this morning,
then will veer to S and increase markedly by mid to late morning.
Gusts will reach 35-40kt at most sites...and could potentially be
as high as 40-45kt at KDEC/KCMI. The strong winds will slowly
decrease toward sunset, then will drop to 10-15kt after 04z/05z.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ038-043>046-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday morning
for ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
433 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-031200-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
433 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will progress through the Illinois River
Valley to the I-55 corridor this morning. Scattered damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be possible. An isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. While widely scattered thunderstorms may re-develop
behind the line this afternoon, the primary severe weather risk will
materialize further east...generally east of I-55.

In addition to the storms, southerly winds will gust 45-50mph today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today...particularly between 9am and
2pm.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-031200-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-
Edgar-Shelby-
433 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A significant severe weather event will unfold this afternoon.
Damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph, hail larger than quarters,
and tornadoes will be possible. The latest SPC outlook suggests a
10% or greater chance for EF-2 or stronger tornadoes along and
southeast of a Champaign to Taylorville line.

In addition to the storms, southerly winds will gust 45-50mph today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today...particularly between
noon and 6pm.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-031200-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
433 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A significant severe weather event will unfold this afternoon into
the early evening. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph, hail
larger than quarters, and tornadoes will be possible. The latest SPC
outlook suggests a 10% or greater chance for EF-2 or stronger
tornadoes along and southeast of a Champaign to Taylorville line.

In addition to the storms, southerly winds will gust 45-55mph today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will produce potentially
5-8 inches of rain along and south of the I-70 corridor from
this afternoon through Saturday night. As a result, many area creeks
and streams will experience significant rises and may spill out of
their banks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed today...particularly between
2pm and 8pm.

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ILZ040-021430-
Schuyler-
906 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND SCHUYLER
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM CDT...

At 904 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Augusta to 9 miles
northeast of Clayton to near Mount Sterling. Movement was northeast
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Huntsville, Browning, Rushville, Doddsville, Ray, and
Littleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9091 4029 9080 4028 9047 4027 9045
      4019 9045 4018 9024 4002 9061 4003 9065
      4005 9068 4008 9067 4008 9070 4010 9070
      4011 9071 4011 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 235DEG 52KT 4015 9087 4010 9080 4002 9081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AAT

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