Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
442 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather is expected east of I-55 this
  evening. A few tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and isolated
  large hail 1.5 inches in diameter are possible with the
  strongest thunderstorms.

- Strong southerly winds will continue this evening, especially
  east of I-55 where gusts to 50 mph are expected.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to a risk
  for areas of flooding, especially in portions of east-central
  and southeast IL where a Flood Watch is in effect until Sunday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...Severe Weather Today...

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to develop along and
just east of I-55 this afternoon as a moisture and instability
rich warm sector of a potent low pressure system resides over the
area. Up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 60+ kts effective bulk shear, and
over 200 m2/s2 effective storm relative helicity have prompted the
issuance of a tornado watch in this area. Current high-res models
suggest this activity should be near I-57 by 7 pm, and exit
central portions of IL into IN by 10 PM. Severe weather threats
include tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and large hail to 1.5
inch diameter.

...Strong Winds Today...
A Wind Advisory remains in effect across the area, with gusts to
50 mph noted east of I-55 this afternoon, and lighter gusts noted
to the west. West of the line of thunderstorms, winds will taper
off this evening, and the wind advisory will be able to be trimmed
down for western areas this evening.

...Flood Risk Across Southeast IL...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall can be expected for portions of
central and southeast IL through Saturday night, starting with
corridors of training thunderstorms that could exceed 2 inches
this evening. As the approaching cold front moves south of the
area late tonight, it will stall near the Ohio River for the next
few days allowing a series of disturbances to track along this
boundary. The first will focus south of I-70 Thursday night with
another inch or so. The second Friday into Friday night,
affecting a much larger portion of central IL, looks to produce 1
to 3 inches, but features more uncertainty in area. The peak
values in this wave looks to be between I-70 and I-72. Finally, a
third wave Saturday into Saturday night looks focused south of
I-70 with up to another 3 inches. Current projections are for
totals of 5 to 7 inches from Shelby to Edgar County southward
where a Flood Watch has been issued. Given uncertainty in
precipitation at this long range, have not expanded the Flood
Watch north of the Shelby to Edgar County corridor, but
conceivably it could expand northward if the Friday system
solidifies its high precipitation corridor farther north.

...Severe Weather Friday...

Friday afternoon and evening could see another round of severe
thunderstorms, especially south of I-70 where a Slight Risk has
been designated by SPC in response to several hundred J/kg CAPE
and strong deep layer shear.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are in place across the
vicinity of KSPI, KBMI, and KPIA with a general lull in
thunderstorm activity. This area should migrate gradually eastward
this afternoon and reinvigorate as afternoon destabilization takes
place primarily east of the current activity. Expecting minimal
chances for thunderstorms at KPIA after 19Z, while KSPI and KBMI
continue to be active with thunderstorms until 22Z-23Z, and
KDEC/KCMI until 23Z-24Z. Winds will be S-SW 20-30 kts with gusts
35-45 kts initially, except for KPIA and KBMI where shower
activity and outflows have disrupted wind fields. Winds beginning
to diminish and shift more westerly after thunderstorm activity
exits, becoming SW 10-15 kts by 05Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036-037-
040>042-047>051.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ038-043>046-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-031100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Scott-Morgan-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected the remainder of the afternoon.
The greatest threat of any severe weather will be near and east of
I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered storms are expected again Friday into Saturday night. A
few of these may strong to severe Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>053-031100-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Menard-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. A few tornadoes and wind gusts over 70 mph are the greatest
concern, though very large hail may occur with any storms that
remain isolated.

South winds will gust from 45 to 50 mph, causing difficult travel
for high profile vehicles, as well as localized blowing dust where
recent rain has not fallen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of heavy rain are expected through late week, most likely
from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

In addition, scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday night and
Saturday. A few of the storms will be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed until around 6 to 8 pm this
evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 60 mph.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will move into the area this evening. rapidly
move across east central Illinois this evening. A few tornadoes and
wind gusts over 70 mph are the greatest concern, though very large
hail may occur with any storms that remain isolated.

South winds will gust from 45 to 50 mph, causing difficult travel
for high profile vehicles, as well as localized blowing dust where
recent rain has not fallen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will produce potentially
over 5 inches of rain through Sunday morning. As a result, river
flooding is likely to develop, and flooding of land based areas are
also likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed from around 5 to 10 pm this
evening.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 60 mph.

37

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Latham                  39.97N 89.16W
04/02/2025  E70 MPH          Logan              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Latham Fire estimating 60 to 70 mph wind
            gusts.

&&

07

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
444 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Rain             1 E Knoxville           40.91N 90.27W
04/02/2025  M1.70 Inch       Knox               IL   Public

            Rainfall so far today.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
447 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Hail             1 W Spaulding           39.87N 89.55W
04/02/2025  M0.75 Inch       Sangamon           IL   Public

            Penny size hail measured in Riverton.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
450 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Washington              40.70N 89.41W
04/02/2025                   Tazewell           IL   Trained Spotter

            2 to 3 inch tree limbs snapped at 503 S
            Market.

&&