Tornado Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the
  evening, with the best chances being along and north of I-20. A
  weakening complex of storms may move in Monday morning.

- Additional severe thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon
  and evening near and east of I-35. All modes of severe weather
  are possible.

- A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to
  near normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon
  highs in the low to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Evening/

Elevated convection associated with a shortwave lifting northeast
through the Plains may continue for a few more hours, through the
main focus now shifted west to dryline storms currently over the
Big Country and western North Texas. Strong instability will keep
the potential of severe storms in place across the western third
of the forecast area, with all modes of severe weather possible,
and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM. These storms will
eventually work their way east through the I-35 corridor (mostly
north of I-20) 8 to 11 PM, maintaining a low end threat of large
hail and damaging winds. A weakening trend is expected the farther
east the storms go due to a strengthening cap and decrease of
diurnal instability, with activity finally dissipating and lifting
northeast of the region around or shortly after midnight.

Meanwhile, a larger scale upper trough over the Rockies will
migrate east into the Plains on Monday, generating one more round
of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Monday's activity may end
up being partially nocturnal/early morning in nature based on
recent guidance. The latest convection-allowing models largely
favor storms redeveloping overnight across the Big Country as
strong synoptic scale ascent coincides with the development of a
40 kt southerly low level jet. These storms would then spread east
to near the I-35 corridor Monday morning, though a strong cap
between 850 and 700mb should keep the convection elevated in
nature. The severe threat would hence be lower than the past few
afternoons and evenings, but elevated instability will be enough
to support large hail in a few storms.

Activity should dissipate mid to late morning as the low level
jet mixes out. Additional storms will be possible in the
afternoon, however, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor
where the atmosphere will remain untouched and unstable. Will keep
the highest POPs across the eastern third of the forecast area
and again mainly north of I-20 on Monday where the strongest
ascent will be. Some of the Monday afternoon and evening
convection will also likely be severe. All activity will move off
to the northeast late Monday evening, followed by a cold front
Monday night.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 201 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Not much has changed in the long-term forecast as we continue to
highlight a cold front on Tuesday followed by mainly dry weather
and seasonal temperatures the rest of the week. A few showers and
storms are still expected across the Brazos Valley Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front moves across the region. Some of
these storms may become strong with small hail and gusty winds.
The highest risk for severe weather will remain outside of our
area (Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valley).

For the mid-late week, we will enjoy temperatures in the 80s to
lower 90s each afternoon as a more stable pattern dominates
aloft. There's only a low chance for rain late Thursday into
Friday mainly across North Texas as a weak disturbance moves over
the region. Looking into the following weekend (Memorial Day
Holiday weekend), it appears Saturday and Sunday will remain
mostly dry and warm... but rain/storm chances may return late
Sunday and Monday as the next storm system approaches from the
west. As expected, predictability this far out is limited given
the spread between model outputs.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Isolated storms may linger in the Metroplex for a little while
longer, but additional storms off to the west will push east into
the DFW area in a couple hours. The timing looks to be in the
01-04Z window, and will maintain a TEMPO group for TSRA somewhere
in that time frame. Storms should remain north of KACT but may
need to add a line for TSRA if they develop farther south than
expected. Storms will exit to the east and dissipate prior to 06Z.
Additional storms will move in Monday morning 10-12Z in the form
of a weakening complex of storms which will require a few hours of
VCTS from 12-16Z. MVFR cigs will also be in place at that time at
all TAF sites. Conditions will improve as storms move out mid to
late morning. At this time, it looks like Monday afternoon
convection will remain east of all TAF sites.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed across North Texas this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  86  67  84  63 /  50  40  20   0   0
Waco                74  88  69  85  61 /  20  50  10   5   0
Paris               69  83  68  80  58 /  40  80  40   5   0
Denton              69  87  60  84  57 /  60  50  20   0   0
McKinney            71  84  65  83  60 /  60  50  30   0   0
Dallas              71  86  68  84  63 /  50  40  20   0   0
Terrell             71  85  68  84  60 /  30  60  20   5   0
Corsicana           74  89  71  87  62 /  20  70  20   5   0
Temple              74  91  69  91  62 /  20  50  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       71  92  60  86  58 /  50  50   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
243 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

TXZ158>160-182030-
Falls TX-McLennan TX-Bell TX-
243 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McLennan, northeastern Bell and northern Falls Counties through 330
PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Troy, or 7 miles north of Temple, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Golinda, Marlin, Pendleton, Otto, Mooreville, Riesel, Asa, Troy,
Perry, Mart, Bruceville-Eddy, Durango, Satin, Cego, Belfalls,
Chilton, Lake Creek Lake, McClanahan, Tomlinson Hill, and White Hall.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 301 and 319.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 9744 3157 9683 3136 9669 3111 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 241DEG 41KT 3120 9732

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
250 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

TXZ093-103-104-182030-
Collin TX-Denton TX-Grayson TX-
250 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Denton,
northwestern Collin and southeastern Grayson Counties through 330 PM
CDT...

At 248 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corinth, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Copper Canyon, Cannon, Lake Lewisville, Elmont, Gunter, Pilot Grove,
Providence Village, Aubrey, Cross Roads, Weston, Luella, Hickory
Creek, Howe, White Mound, Little Elm, Lincoln Park, Prosper, Corinth,
Dorchester, and Anna.

This includes Interstate 35E between mile markers 454 and 464.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 9707 3316 9718 3362 9659 3340 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 235DEG 45KT 3317 9705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bridgeport              33.21N 97.76W
05/17/2025                   Wise               TX   Public

            Social media reports show numerous trees
            were blown down across Bridgeport and
            surrounding areas. 20 large trees were blown
            down at the Bridgeport Country club.

&&

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
444 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

TXZ102-103-182230-
Denton TX-Wise TX-
444 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Wise
and central Denton Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Justin, or 12 miles northwest of Trophy Club, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ray Roberts Park Isle Du Bois, Corral City, Pilot Point, Denton, New
Fairview, Providence Village, Ponder, Aubrey, Cross Roads, Northlake,
Lincoln Park, Dish, Justin, Argyle, Oak Point, Krugerville, Shady
Shores, Krum, Corinth, and Lake Ray Roberts.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 468 and 474.
 Interstate 35W between mile markers 75 and 85.
 Interstate 35E between mile markers 459 and 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9701 3341 9684 3324 9684 3301 9739
      3313 9749 3342 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 237DEG 39KT 3310 9736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     Hail             11 S Breckenridge       32.60N 98.93W
05/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       Stephens           TX   Amateur Radio

            Quarter sized hail in Harpersville.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     Hail             9 N Ranger              32.59N 98.69W
05/18/2025  M2.50 Inch       Stephens           TX   Amateur Radio

            Tennis ball sized hail in La Casa.

&&

MB