Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the
  evening, with the best chances being along and north of I-20. A
  weakening complex of storms may move in Monday morning.

- Additional severe thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon
  and evening near and east of I-35. All modes of severe weather
  are possible.

- A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to
  near normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon
  highs in the low to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Evening/

Elevated convection associated with a shortwave lifting northeast
through the Plains may continue for a few more hours, through the
main focus now shifted west to dryline storms currently over the
Big Country and western North Texas. Strong instability will keep
the potential of severe storms in place across the western third
of the forecast area, with all modes of severe weather possible,
and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM. These storms will
eventually work their way east through the I-35 corridor (mostly
north of I-20) 8 to 11 PM, maintaining a low end threat of large
hail and damaging winds. A weakening trend is expected the farther
east the storms go due to a strengthening cap and decrease of
diurnal instability, with activity finally dissipating and lifting
northeast of the region around or shortly after midnight.

Meanwhile, a larger scale upper trough over the Rockies will
migrate east into the Plains on Monday, generating one more round
of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Monday's activity may end
up being partially nocturnal/early morning in nature based on
recent guidance. The latest convection-allowing models largely
favor storms redeveloping overnight across the Big Country as
strong synoptic scale ascent coincides with the development of a
40 kt southerly low level jet. These storms would then spread east
to near the I-35 corridor Monday morning, though a strong cap
between 850 and 700mb should keep the convection elevated in
nature. The severe threat would hence be lower than the past few
afternoons and evenings, but elevated instability will be enough
to support large hail in a few storms.

Activity should dissipate mid to late morning as the low level
jet mixes out. Additional storms will be possible in the
afternoon, however, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor
where the atmosphere will remain untouched and unstable. Will keep
the highest POPs across the eastern third of the forecast area
and again mainly north of I-20 on Monday where the strongest
ascent will be. Some of the Monday afternoon and evening
convection will also likely be severe. All activity will move off
to the northeast late Monday evening, followed by a cold front
Monday night.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 201 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Not much has changed in the long-term forecast as we continue to
highlight a cold front on Tuesday followed by mainly dry weather
and seasonal temperatures the rest of the week. A few showers and
storms are still expected across the Brazos Valley Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front moves across the region. Some of
these storms may become strong with small hail and gusty winds.
The highest risk for severe weather will remain outside of our
area (Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valley).

For the mid-late week, we will enjoy temperatures in the 80s to
lower 90s each afternoon as a more stable pattern dominates
aloft. There's only a low chance for rain late Thursday into
Friday mainly across North Texas as a weak disturbance moves over
the region. Looking into the following weekend (Memorial Day
Holiday weekend), it appears Saturday and Sunday will remain
mostly dry and warm... but rain/storm chances may return late
Sunday and Monday as the next storm system approaches from the
west. As expected, predictability this far out is limited given
the spread between model outputs.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Isolated storms may linger in the Metroplex for a little while
longer, but additional storms off to the west will push east into
the DFW area in a couple hours. The timing looks to be in the
01-04Z window, and will maintain a TEMPO group for TSRA somewhere
in that time frame. Storms should remain north of KACT but may
need to add a line for TSRA if they develop farther south than
expected. Storms will exit to the east and dissipate prior to 06Z.
Additional storms will move in Monday morning 10-12Z in the form
of a weakening complex of storms which will require a few hours of
VCTS from 12-16Z. MVFR cigs will also be in place at that time at
all TAF sites. Conditions will improve as storms move out mid to
late morning. At this time, it looks like Monday afternoon
convection will remain east of all TAF sites.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed across North Texas this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  86  67  84  63 /  50  40  20   0   0
Waco                74  88  69  85  61 /  20  50  10   5   0
Paris               69  83  68  80  58 /  40  80  40   5   0
Denton              69  87  60  84  57 /  60  50  20   0   0
McKinney            71  84  65  83  60 /  60  50  30   0   0
Dallas              71  86  68  84  63 /  50  40  20   0   0
Terrell             71  85  68  84  60 /  30  60  20   5   0
Corsicana           74  89  71  87  62 /  20  70  20   5   0
Temple              74  91  69  91  62 /  20  50  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       71  92  60  86  58 /  50  50   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     Hail             11 S Breckenridge       32.60N 98.93W
05/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       Stephens           TX   Amateur Radio

            Quarter sized hail in Harpersville.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     Hail             9 N Ranger              32.59N 98.69W
05/18/2025  M2.50 Inch       Stephens           TX   Amateur Radio

            Tennis ball sized hail in La Casa.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
826 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Hail             Decatur                 33.24N 97.59W
05/18/2025  E1.25 Inch       Wise               TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
832 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     Hail             7 NW Lipan              32.59N 98.14W
05/18/2025  M1.75 Inch       Palo Pinto         TX   Amateur Radio

            Golf ball sized hail near I-20 at mile
            marker 384.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
834 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     Hail             5 S Millsap             32.68N 97.99W
05/18/2025  E1.00 Inch       Parker             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
837 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     Hail             7 SSW Millsap           32.66N 98.04W
05/18/2025  M2.00 Inch       Parker             TX   Storm Chaser

&&

MSS