Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

Severe Weather Threat through 10 AM this Morning:

Though this morning the main forecast concern will continue to be a
line of thunderstorms traversing north and central Georgia. The
storms will be encountering a high shear low CAPE environment, where
the presence of any instability will create a severe weather threat.
HREF guidance (00Z) as well as the latest HRRR runs indicate a
narrow band of CAPE (100-800 J/kg) ahead of the line of storms as
it moves through, suggesting a threat for damaging winds across
all of north and central Georgia this morning. Gusts in the 40 to
60 mph range may cause tree and power line damage, especially
given the saturated soil conditions. A couple of isolated gusts in
the 60 to 70 mph range can't be ruled out in west central Georgia
where instability will be higher. The wind threat will be
accompanied by the potential for a couple brief tornadoes in
western or central Georgia. The highest tornado risk expected in
west central Georgia between 4 AM and 8 AM. This higher risk area
coincides with the best combination of CAPE and low level shear
and includes the Columbus. A lingering wedge in northeast Georgia
could hinder the severe risk to a degree, but with strong winds
just above the wedge any downdrafts may push severe winds to the
surface.

After the Thunderstorms this Morning:

After the line of thunderstorms passes this morning there could be a
few lingering rain showers through around noon. Then the rest of the
day will be defined by gusty west-northwest winds. Wind gusts in the
20 to 35 mph range will be possible through the afternoon. CAA
associated with the winds will lead to gradually declining
temperatures over the course of the day. By late afternoon
temperatures should fall into the 40s across north Georgia
(including in Atlanta). Most locations will record their high for
the day in advance of this mornings thunderstorm activity.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

Hazards for the Workweek:

A surface high stretching from central Canada to the Southeast
will bring quiet weather and cooler than average temperatures to
Georgia Monday and Tuesday. This should lead to widespread highs
in the 50s both days. Light winds Tuesday morning could combine
with moisture from recent rainfall to produce a few patches of
radiation fog.

The next storm system will arrive in Georgia Wednesday. The most
challenging aspect of this system continues to be the merger of a
northern and southern stream shortwaves. How the two shortwaves
come together will determine if there is enough cold air for snow
north of Interstate 20 Wednesday night. Recent trends in the
ensemble guidance suggest that most of the precipitation will end
in the region before the cold moves in. If this occurs any
snowfall will likely be limited to the mountains of far north
Georgia. The odds of impactful snowfall are between 20 and 30%
along the GA/TN/NC boarder, and they fall off to less than 5% as
you move south into Atlanta. Across central Georgia, where
precipitation will be all rain, there is a potential for rainfall
totals over 1 inch.

The workweek should conclude with another push of colder air as an
area of surface high pressure moves eastwards from the Plains.
Temperatures should be 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal averages both
days, with Thursday being the coldest of the two. While it will be
colder, temperature trends in the ensemble guidance are at least
in the right direction. The last 4 runs of the NBM have been
trending lower (now below 10%) with the odds of a high temperature
below 40 degrees in Atlanta on Thursday.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

The primary aviation concerns through 14Z Sunday will be fog and
thunderstorms. A line of storms will race through north and
central Georgia between 08Z and 14Z today. Wind gusts between 35
and 55 kt, and hazardous wind shear may accompany this line of
storms. Impacts are expected for all the TAF sites. Fog will
continue to affect portions of north Georgia until the line of
storms passes. Southerly wind gusts between 20 and 30 kt are
possible before the thunderstorms, then westerly gusts in the same
range are anticipated through 00Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in the timing and occurrence of thunderstorms
High confidence in gusty winds through 00Z Monday.
Moderate confidence in the continuation of fog through 08Z.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  28  53  29 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         58  28  50  31 /  40   0   0   0
Blairsville     54  20  46  25 /  50   0   0   0
Cartersville    56  25  48  26 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        60  30  55  32 /  50   0   0   0
Gainesville     55  28  52  30 /  50   0   0   0
Macon           65  30  54  31 /  90   0   0   0
Rome            57  25  48  26 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  58  27  51  27 /  40   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  33  56  34 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon EST today for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
GAZ013>016-021>025-027-032>039-044>051-055-057-062.

&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
327 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
327 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Areas of dense fog will remain possible in northeast Georgia
through 6 AM this morning.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through north
and central Georgia this morning. Wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph
range may lead to tree and power line damage. A couple of brief
tornadoes will also be possible, especially in west central
Georgia.

Isolated areas of river flooding remain a concern along portions
of the Chattahoochee, Ocmulgee, and Oconee Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance for light snow across portions of far north
Georgia Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters are requested to self-activate tonight and Sunday
morning if warnings are issued.