Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Another round of showers and thunderstorms exiting the area this
morning with more precip moving in this afternoon. Near zonal
upper level flow becomes a bit southwesterly today with shortwave
after shortwave moving through the region this week. At the
surface we have a high pressure ridge/wedge building into NE GA
with some CAD (Cold Air Damming) developing as well. right now it
looks like the wedge has pushed into the NE ATL suburbs with a
Temp/Dewpoint of 61 over 59 at PDK and ATL still sitting at 72
over 69. The models are showing this wedge building in fairly
deep into the area which is a bit rare to have one this strong
this time of year. This is very welcomed as it will help to
stabilize the environment and minimize afternoon convection. This
is very evident as the models are showing Capes increasing into
the 800-1200 J/kg range but only south and west of the building
wedge. We will have to wait to see just how far this wedge pushes
into the state but for now the best location of any strong to
possibly severe storms will be across west central and central
portions of the state. This wedge is expected to stay across the
area through Wed afternoon but it will weaken substantially
tomorrow.

Temps today across NE GA are expected to stay mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s with the cool easterly flow under the wedge. Will see
just the opposite across central GA with temps expected to get up
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temps will be a tad bit warmer
Wednesday but still seeing well below normal readings across the
NE GA mountains.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Key Messages:

  - More rain and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. A few of these
	may be severe.

  - Cold front moves through Friday, drying out on Saturday. Rain
	chances slowly return in early next week.

Forecast:

Models seem to finally be coming to an agreement around what will be
happening in the area Thursday into Friday, with GEFS suite coming
around to stronger trough moving through the area Friday and driving
cold front through. Before that though, shortwave is progged to push
through the area on Thursday bringing yet another round of rain and
thunderstorm chances out ahead of it. There will be high dependency
on what happens the night before, but if the sun can come out,
should be plenty of moisture around for some vigorous convection
that could see some isolated severe wind gusts occur. On Friday, as
mentioned above, pretty strong trough will dig into the eastern US
as the upper level low that has been sitting over the central US
causing us problems finally decides to move along. This will drive a
cold front into north and central Georgia on Friday, and depending
on timing, could see a line of storms form along it. Will need to
watch this for severe potential.

Surface high comes in behind the front meaning Saturday should
(finally) be dry. Temperatures should be pleasant for late May/early
June, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s (and possibly some 60s
in the mountains in more elevated locations). Ensembles show another
shortwave rotating through the base of the trough Saturday night
into Sunday morning which could squeeze some rain showers out over
northern GA, though moisture will be lacking with the system.
Another surface high should settle in over the Ohio River Valley on
Monday into Tuesday, which will bring easterly flow off the
Atlantic. Enough moisture may return that, when coupled with early
June sunshine, could bring some isolated to scattered diurnal
thunderstorms to the CWA early next week.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

Conditions are difficult. LIFR CIGS continue to linger, though
approaching WX should help to push CIGS into IFR or low MVFR. -TSRA
is expected between 19-00Z this afternoon. Unfortunately, ATL is
unlikely to improve past low MVFR through the TAF period. A
stationary front will continue to cause a combination of low CIGS
and VIS. Winds will be out of the east at 5-10kts with a shift to
the SW expected tomorrow after 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  60  81  64 /  80  70  40  20
Atlanta         78  65  82  67 /  80  70  40  30
Blairsville     68  56  77  58 /  70  70  40  30
Cartersville    77  62  82  63 /  70  70  40  40
Columbus        87  67  86  68 /  80  50  40  30
Gainesville     67  59  80  64 /  70  70  40  30
Macon           87  66  86  67 /  70  70  30  30
Rome            78  63  82  64 /  80  70  40  40
Peachtree City  82  64  83  65 /  90  70  30  30
Vidalia         89  69  90  71 /  70  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1152 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1152 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move eastward
through the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe and produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

Stronger storms could also produce heavy rainfall, which could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
through Friday across much of north and central Georgia. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty to
damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.