River Flood Warning 57, NWS Atlanta, GA

130 
WGUS82 KFFC 140208
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
908 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Settingdown Creek near Ball Ground affecting Forsyth and Cherokee 
  Counties.

GAC057-117-140315-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-250214T0208Z/
/FREG1.1.ER.250213T1720Z.250213T2130Z.250214T0055Z.UU/
908 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Settingdown Creek near Ball Ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM EST Thursday the stage was 12.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8430 3431 8423 3433 8414 3426 8413


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1252 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Shower activity has cleared most of the County Warning Area other
than the extreme SE corner. For the update, have adjusted
temperatures and cloud cover to match current obs and trends. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Strong wedge is still holding in place across much of north and
central GA early this morning. A cold front is currently situated
across central AL and is pushing east. A line of showers and
thunderstorms has developed out ahead of the front. On the north side
of the wedge, the convection remains elevated. However, along the
entire line heavy rainfall is occurring. So far, the axis of heavier
rainfall has occurred roughly along the Interstate 85 corridor and
northward. There is a very narrow band of 4" to 5" totals that
stretches from Haralson County through Polk and Bartow counties to
Cherokee County. River Flood Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings remain
in effect. No changes to the Flood Watch are anticipated at this
time.

Wedge is well depicted in the observations across the CWA this
morning. There has been some erosion on the SW side and the boundary
looks to be just north of CSG. Where the wedge has eroded, storms
will be able to become surface based and tap into a little
instability. South of the wedge, a few strong storms will be possible
early this morning. Strong, gusty winds would be likely within any
of the stronger storms (along with the heavy rainfall).

Line of convection is moving at a fairly decent clip and conditions
should improve from north to south fairly quickly this morning.
Models are indicating clearing skies by early afternoon. High
pressure will build in quickly from the west.

Along with high pressure, a much drier and cooler airmass will also
build into the CWA. MinT values tonight will mostly be in the 20s and
30s...with some lower 40s in the far SE. These temps are fairly
close to normal for this time of year. MaxT values for Friday will be
near or slightly below normal.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Surface high pressure will be exiting off the eastern seaboard with
another CAD wedge developing in northeast GA along the lee side of
the Appalachians Friday night into early Saturday. Meanwhile, a mid-
level trough will dig across the western CONUS and track across the
Southern Plains Saturday into Sunday. At the surface, a low pressure
system and attendant cold front forming in the Arklatex tracking
eastward will bring a final round of rain and a conditional severe
threat for our area Saturday Night into Sunday. Latest model runs
have indicated a slightly slower progression of this system.
Nonetheless, rain chances will start to increase on Saturday as a
warm front lifts northward and becoming more widespread overnight
into Sunday along and ahead of the cold front. The surface low and
upper level support lifts quickly to the NNE early Sunday while the
cold front moves through and rain chances gradually coming to an end.
Surface high pressure will once again moves back into the region
with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Thus we welcome another period of dry
weather and seasonal temperatures on Monday lasting through Tuesday.
Around mid to late weekend ensembles depict a southern stream system
tracking across the Southern states bringing yet another round of
unsettled weather. Stay tuned...

Weekend Severe Potential: Similar to the Wednesday/Thursday, the
more favorable timeframe for thunderstorms, potentially severe
thunderstorms will be Saturday Night into early Sunday. As we know,
nighttime severe weather can be especially hazardous, so remain
weather aware. As of this update, SPC has painted a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) for North and west-central GA (including the ATL
Metro). Uncertainties in the severe potential still remain. What we
know: The convective mode would likely be linear owing to the high
shear/low CAPE environment. Thus, isolated damaging winds and/or
embedded spin up tornadoes could form within any kinks or breaks in
the line. The area highlighted by the severe risk area (North and
west-central GA including the ATL metro) will be in relatively close
proximity to the surface low and better forcing. The CAD wedge may
limit severe potential for areas east of the ATL metro. What we don't
know: How much instability will be able to materialize at the
surface? Does the lingering CAD wedge inhibit convective development?

Weekend Rain and flooding chances: Rivers are likely to still be
elevated with soils across the North well saturated and primed prior
to this next round of rainfall this weekend. Minimal changes to the
forecast rainfall totals Saturday through Sunday with values north of
I-20/I-85 corridor ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches with isolated up to
2 inches at the higher elevations. NBM probabilities of greater than
1 inch of rainfall for this same region by Monday morning range from
70% to 90% -- the higher end probabilities in far north GA and at
the highest elevations. Greater than 2 inches for North GA only still
range from 45 to 50%. So while less 'heavy' rainfall with this
system overall it may still be significant given antecedent soil
conditions particularly up in North GA. WPC has painted a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4) for areas north of I-20/I-85 for heavy rainfall
on Saturday.

Long Term Temperature Overview: Seasonal temperatures are forecast
for Friday with highs in the mid 50s to 60s and lows in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Saturday and Sunday look to be the warmest days in the
period at least for parts of Central GA with highs ranging in the mid
50s to the north and mid/upper 70s across the south. We cool off at
the start of the work week with morning lows on Monday in the 20s and
30s with forecast highs in the 40s and 50s and rebounding back into
the 50s and 60s by Tuesday.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Low clouds continue to thin and lift behind a cold front. Thicker
high clouds persist from AHN to CSG and points SE. More low cigs are
noted across extreme NW GA, and these clouds may persist into the
evening hours. NW winds will gust to 20 to 24 knots as higher winds
above the surface mix down. Winds will at least partially decouple
after sunset, with gustiness diminishing.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high for timing of cig improvements, high for other
elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  30  55  36 /  20   0   0  30
Atlanta         60  31  55  40 /  10   0   0  40
Blairsville     53  22  51  32 /  10   0   0  30
Cartersville    57  26  55  39 /  10   0   0  40
Columbus        68  35  61  45 /  20   0   0  30
Gainesville     60  30  52  36 /  10   0   0  30
Macon           69  35  59  41 /  30   0   0  30
Rome            56  26  56  39 /  10   0   0  40
Peachtree City  62  28  57  39 /  10   0   0  40
Vidalia         75  42  61  45 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1057 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Rainfall will continue to exit the area into the afternoon.
However, many area rivers will continue to rise in response to
recent rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Another storm system will bring more heavy rainfall along with
scattered thunderstorms to the area late Saturday into Sunday. There
is a risk for severe storms with this system, and river flooding may
also linger through the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely not needed tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
839 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Flash Flood      3 NE Dawnville          34.85N 84.85W
02/13/2025                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            2300 block of Lower Kings Bridge Rd closed
            due to flooding.

&&

LNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
840 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     Flash Flood      3 E Dalton              34.76N 84.92W
02/13/2025                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            Intersection of Old Grade Rd and Crook Dr
            closed due to flooding.

&&

LNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 AM     Flash Flood      3 E Dalton              34.76N 84.92W
02/13/2025                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            Portions of Jeff Dr closed due to flooding.

&&

LNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
845 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     Flash Flood      1 E Lithia Springs      33.79N 84.64W
02/13/2025                   Douglas            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Mount Vernon Rd at Woodrow Wilson Park
            closed due to flooding.

&&

LNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1022 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Cedartown         34.00N 85.27W
02/13/2025                   Polk               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Portion of Johnson Lake Rd closed due to
            washout. Vehicle abandoned in floodwaters.

&&

LNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1027 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 AM     Flash Flood      3 W Douglasville        33.76N 84.79W
02/13/2025                   Douglas            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 3
            W Douglasville. The shoulder of a portion of
            Cedar Mountain Rd was washed out, no damage
            to roadway per DOT.

&&

LNM