River Flood Warning 22, NWS Atlanta, GA

586 
WGUS82 KFFC 131437
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Peachtree Creek at Atlanta affecting Fulton and DeKalb Counties.

GAC089-121-131545-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-250213T1437Z/
/AANG1.1.ER.250213T0825Z.250213T0931Z.250213T1217Z.NO/
937 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Peachtree Creek at Atlanta.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM EST Thursday the stage was 15.7 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.0 feet this
    evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8438 3379 8435 3380 8446 3385 8445


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1244 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Key Messages:

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect for north Georgia and the
northern portions of the Atlanta metro from this afternoon until
Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy rain is currently falling across
the watch area. Another 1-3" of rain is expected to fall with
locally higher amounts of up to 4" possible where repeated rounds of
precipitation occur. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN when encountering
flooded roadways.

  - A few strong to severe storms may be possible overnight
Wednesday in primarily west central Georgia. Slight risk into metro
is very conditional, given wedge should make surface based
convection challenging. In west central Georgia, QLCS mode will be
possible, with main threats strong to severe winds and a tornado or
two.

Forecast:

Challenging forecast continues to unfold for tonight, with competing
effects of strong moisture return at the surface and stout wedge/CAD
that is being reinforced by rain and supported by surface high
pressure up till a cold front moves into the area tonight. The
impacts of this will be that an area around approximately
Heard/Coweta/Troup/Meriwether has pretty high uncertainty on
whether or not we can get enough surface based moisture return to
allow for surface based storms which could be severe and have all
hazards present. To the north, expect mostly rain and thunder, and
to the south, at least for west central Georgia, including the
Columbus metro, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The synoptic setup sees a potent upper level trough that is lifting
out of the desert SW into the southeast today. That trough is tapped
into some very deep subtropical moisture, with PWATs approaching or
even exceeding 1.25-1.5" over a wide area within the broad synoptic
lift driven by the system. That moisture is overrunning three
separate features - first, on old frontal boundary that is already
falling apart near the Gulf coast, second, a rain cooled air mass,
the boundary of which can currently be denoted by sharp line of
cumulus over south central Alabama, and third, strong wedge/CAD that
has set up over north and parts of central Georgia that is being
reinforced by both rain and surface high across NE CONUS.
Temperature differences between the warm Gulf air across southern GA
and the rain cooled and wedge airmass across central and north GA is
stark, with near 30 degree F differences noted at station as little
as 30 miles apart (Cordele to Perry), demonstrating some of the
impressive dynamics at play with this system.

Models are notably struggling with the CAD as expected. As an
example, each run of the HRRR this afternoon has had to slow the
northward progression of the Gulf air into central GA. This is a
well known bias, and is why temperatures have been lowered compared
to guidance for the past several forecast packages for today.
Satellite observations as well as ground stations seem to show that
the northward progression of Gulf air in at least west central
Georgia may have finally hit a bit of a more challenging wall that
it can't quite seem to mix out as quickly. This is likely due to
encountered air that is rain cooled within the wedge. Erosion on the
east side of central Georgia will likely continue for a few more
counties, so enjoy going from the 50s and 60s to 70s and 80s in a
matter of an hour or two in those areas.

Moisture continues to be lifted isentropically over the top of cold
air, and with the high PWATs, is dumping rainfall quite efficiently
over north Georgia and metro Atlanta. MRMS estimates show widespread
1-3 inches of rain has already fallen, and radar estimates look as
though they may be a bit underdone compared to observations coming
in from some rain gauges. Expecting to see another 1-3" of rain
across the area tonight. This will lead to flooding concerns across
north Georgia and the metro. Several rivers are starting to see
quick rises with a few flood warnings already issued. This will
become more widespread overnight. Numerous river gages are forecast
to go Minor flood stage, and flood guidance continues to show the
possibility of seeing a few rivers into Moderate. The Flood Watch
continues until 7 am tomorrow morning. Please remember to use
caution if you encounter any flooding - do not attempt to cross
flooded roadways.

The final aspect to talk about is the severe potential tonight into
the early morning hours Thursday. As mentioned above, this is the
most challenging part of this storm. Still believe that the northern
end of the Slight/Marginal Risk from SPC is extremely conditional,
especially into the Atlanta metro. Experience and model bias says
that the hires is likely eroding the CAD too quickly as the cold
front moves into the area tonight with the main push of the
surface low to the north. This would eliminate the possibility of
surface based convection - and indeed, many of the models seem to
be slowly backing to the south with moisture return tonight. 17Z
HRRR only brings STP > 1 into areas around and just north of
Columbus, for instance. That said, the outlook in the areas can be
viewed as a worst case scenario, where IF erosion of the wedge is
more intense (and, this could be possible given the intensity of
the LLJ at > 60 kts creating some aggressive mixing) surface based
convection will be possible. As for the rest of the parameter
space in central Georgia (especially near Columbus), models show
STP values of around 1-2. Significant divergence aloft will be in
place along the right entrance region of a stout jet streak and
impressive shear profiles will be in place and enhanced by some
low level backing near the edge of the CAD/wedge. SRH values of
0-1 km are 200-300 m^2/s^2 (though caution needs to be used when
evaluating this to ensure parcels are indeed surface based). Some
streamwise vorticity enhancement will be possible for any surface
based storm that can find the "edge of the wedge". Cold front
pushing in is fairly potent, though convergence without the aid of
some of the backing due to the wedge front isn't all that
impressive given a SW wind direction at the surface ahead of it.
Thinking any severe mode for Georgia will likely be QLCS in
variety. The main hazards would be strong to severe winds, and the
possibility of some tornado spin ups.

Front continues to push through the area tomorrow morning. Severe
threat should decrease quickly with eastward extent thanks to losing
upper level support. Colder air will begin to filter in behind the
front. In parts of north Georgia, we might actually see the sun for
the first time in what feels like ages. Temperatures tomorrow night
will return to more winter-like, with lows in the 20s, 30s, and
upper 40s across north and central Georgia by Friday morning. Enjoy
the respite from rain because more is coming - see below.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

At a glance:

    - Brief reprieve from rainfall on Friday

    - Second round of heavy rain and yet another conditional severe
    threat overnight Saturday into Sunday

As we kick off the extended range on Friday morning, a strong
(nearly 1040mb) surface high will move in across the Southeast,
shifting slowly eastward until its center is off the coast of the
Eastern Seaboard at the start of the weekend. Perhaps unsurprisingly
with such strong forcing at the surface, classic cold air damming is
progged to set up throughout the course of the day Friday -- with
characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up against the Appalachians.
The combination of high pressure at the surface and a swath of dry
air rounding the base of a broader trough present at the mid-levels
will support a fleeting period of dry weather on Friday. Highs in
the mid-50s to lower-70s and dewpoints in the 30s to 40s by the
afternoon will make for a pleasant end to the week...

...but don't get too comfortable. A mid-level trough is progged to
dig across the Mountain West and into the ArkLaTex Saturday into
Sunday. Coincident with the strongest shortwave embedded within the
broader trough, resultant mass response supports the development of
a low pressure system at the surface. We're expecting a final,
punctuating round of rainfall and conditional chances for severe
weather as the associated line of convection makes its way across
north and central Georgia overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Severe chances: Much like Wednesday/Thursday's event, the brunt of
the favorable forcing overlap will occur late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, making this a primarily nocturnal event (changes in
timing are possible, perhaps even likely as this event enters the
short term). We're not yet in range of HiRes or intermediary
guidance, but global models suggest the presence of a 40-50kt low
level jet at 925 mb as the line is trekking southeastward. As has
been the case recently, we'll be fighting against a lingering wedge
for areas along and east of the Atlanta Metro for thermodynamics.
Wind profile differences along the outer edge of the wedge boundary
will serve to further locally enhance hodograph curvature. Dewpoints
look to be in the 60s outside of the wedge airmass, but it remains
to be seen if we materialize any surface-based instability. It won't
take much with the forecast kinematics, and we're currently sitting
on a very narrow corridor on the order of 50-100 J/kg SBCAPE. We're
solidly within high-shear, low-CAPE season, and if trends continue,
it appears that we'll be looking at primarily QLCS-type hazards
(isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for a tornado within
any bulges, kinks, or breaks in the line of convection). The SPC has
outlined a 15% area in their Day 4 (7AM Saturday through 7AM Sunday)
Convective Outlook, and we'll be keeping an eye on potential
upgrades and specific hazard probabilities over the next few days.

Precipitation/flooding chances: The rebound period between our
midweek rainfall and our weekend rainfall looks to be approximately
48 hours or so, and rivers are likely to remain at elevated stages
at the onset of this final round of precipitation. Given antecedent
conditions, it will not take much to reinvigorate chances for flash
flooding and river flooding. Highest NBM probabilities for an inch
or more rainfall over the 48-hour period ending 7AM Monday are once
again focused across locales in north Georgia: 76% for Atlanta, 81%
for Rome, 80% for Gainesville, 86% for Dalton, and 90% for Ellijay.
For 2 inches or greater over the same 48-hour period, 35-45%
probabilities for portions of far north Georgia. In general, blanket
totals of an additional 1-2" are possible CWA-wide late Saturday
through early Monday, with terrain-enhanced locally higher amounts
up to a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of 3-3.5". A
Slight (level 2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been
issued by WPC for portions of northwest Georgia coincident with
highest forecast rainfall totals.

Moving into Monday and beyond, yet another surface high moves in on
the heels of the precipitation (with dry, quasi-zonal flow at the
mid-levels), which will support another period of dry and relatively
tranquil weather through midweek. In general, expect highs in the
lower 50s to mid-60s through the long term. The exceptions will be
the warmest day over the next week -- Sunday -- which may see
highs in the 60s to mid-70s, and the "coldest" -- Monday -- with
highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Lows will follow a similar trend,
primarily in the upper-20s to mid-40s, aside from Sunday morning
(upper 40s to lower 60s) and Monday morning (teens to lower-30s).

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Line of shra and isolated elevated tsra moving through the ATL
metro. The line is moving fairly quickly. Have gone against models
a bit with cigs, upstream obs show an improvement to IFR/low MVFR
behind the front. Have kept some sct IFR in, but the predominate
deck is 012. Winds will shift to the W/NW behind the line. Cigs
should continue to improve through the mid to late morning and
clearing by early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence cigs. High confidence remaining elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          32  54  36  52 /   0   0  40  80
Atlanta         33  55  40  61 /   0   0  50  70
Blairsville     23  51  33  51 /   0   0  40  90
Cartersville    27  55  38  62 /   0   0  50  60
Columbus        37  61  45  71 /   0   0  40  20
Gainesville     31  52  36  54 /   0   0  40  80
Macon           37  60  42  68 /   0   0  40  40
Rome            26  56  39  63 /   0   0  50  60
Peachtree City  30  57  39  63 /   0   0  50  50
Vidalia         45  61  44  73 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-030>035-041>048-052>057-066>068.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
745 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning across portions
of north and central Georgia. Another round of moderate to heavy
rain will move across north and central Georgia tonight with an
additional 1 to 2 inches expected. Locally higher amounts of up to 4
inches are possible which will lead to an increased risk of river
and stream flooding overnight along with isolated flash flooding.

In addition to the rain, there is a small risk for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms, mainly south of a LaGrange to Macon to
Louisville line in central Georgia. Localized damaging winds will be
the primary concern, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
Most areas will just see the heavy rain and brief gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Another storm system will bring more heavy rainfall along with
scattered thunderstorms to the area late Saturday into Sunday. There
is a risk for severe storms with this system, and river flooding may
also linger through the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely not needed tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1107 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     Flash Flood      Aragon                  34.04N 85.06W
02/12/2025                   Polk               GA   Emergency Mngr

            Walnut and 6th Street in Aragon being closed
            due to high water around ankle deep.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1204 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ053-054-056-066-067-130545-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Troup GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-
1204 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Spalding, Fayette, northern Meriwether, northeastern Troup and Coweta
Counties through 1245 AM EST...

At 1204 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain
was along a line extending from near Handy to Hogansville to Louise,
and moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, Fayetteville, Peachtree City, Tyrone, Senoia, Hogansville,
Grantville, Luthersville, Brooks, Moreland, Sharpsburg, Turin,
Haralson, Woolsey, Lone Oak, East Newnan, Corinth, Starrs Mill,
Louise, and Inman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8496 3323 8494 3325 8495 3340 8492
      3355 8449 3355 8444 3350 8442 3348 8439
      3346 8438 3344 8440 3341 8439 3336 8440
      3335 8439 3335 8436 3321 8444 3320 8447
      3318 8451 3306 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 245DEG 49KT 3335 8489 3318 8492 3308 8496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1232 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ045-046-048-055-057-130615-
Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
1232 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockdale,
southeastern DeKalb, Henry, Clayton and northwestern Newton Counties
through 115 AM EST...

At 1232 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain was
along a line extending from near Fayetteville to Starrs Mill to near
Haralson, and moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McDonough, Conyers, Covington, Jonesboro, Stockbridge, Forest Park,
Riverdale, Hampton, Morrow, Lovejoy, Lake City, Oxford, Lithonia,
Porterdale, Lakeview Estates, Georgia International Horse Park, Lake
Spivey, Blacksville, Rex, and Ola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8404 3375 8402 3379 8398 3369 8382
      3361 8382 3343 8395 3340 8398 3339 8401
      3335 8427 3335 8439 3339 8440 3341 8439
      3344 8440 3345 8439 3348 8439 3350 8442
      3355 8444 3355 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 243DEG 50KT 3348 8449 3335 8450 3325 8454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ066>069-078-079-130745-
Harris GA-Upson GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
156 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Meriwether,
southwestern Pike, northwestern Upson, southeastern Troup,
northwestern Talbot and Harris Counties through 245 AM EST...

At 156 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain was
along a line extending from near West Point to near River View to
near Bartletts Ferry Dam, and moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Greenville, Manchester, West Point, Pine Mountain,
Woodbury, Warm Springs, Woodland, Molena, Gay, Sunset Village, Pine
Mountain-Callaway Gardens, Shiloh, Concord, F.d. Roosevelt State
Park, Atwater, Hilltop, Flint Hill, Sprewell Bluff State Park, and
Stovall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8442 3299 8435 3280 8441 3264 8510
      3266 8509 3269 8512 3272 8512 3274 8511
      3274 8513 3276 8514 3278 8512 3281 8517
      3283 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519 3288 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 248DEG 56KT 3285 8511 3274 8511 3266 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ068>071-079-130830-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
245 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Pike,
Monroe, Upson, northwestern Talbot and Lamar Counties through 330 AM
EST...

At 245 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy
rain was along a line extending from Lifsey Springs to Sunnyside to
Pleasant Hill, and moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Zebulon, Milner, Woodland, Molena,
Yatesville, Meansville, Culloden, Aldora, Sunset Village, Lincoln
Park, The Rock, Concord, Atwater, Hilltop, Russellville, Sprewell
Bluff State Park, and Logtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8463 3288 8451 3291 8451 3310 8447
      3320 8401 3320 8385 3318 8382 3313 8382
      3306 8375 3285 8389 3285 8397 3286 8398
      3285 8398 3285 8412 3283 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 254DEG 49KT 3305 8440 3290 8444 3281 8452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

GAZ023-025-033>035-044-045-047-130900-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-North Fulton GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-DeKalb GA-
Gwinnett GA-South Fulton GA-
254 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Barrow, DeKalb,
Gwinnett, northwestern Walton, south central Hall, Jackson and
central Fulton Counties through 400 AM EST...

At 253 AM EST, a line of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall was
along a line extending from Berkeley Lake to near Sandtown, and
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain and minor flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary flooding especially in poor
         drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Winder, Jefferson, Commerce,
Peachtree Corners, City of South Fulton, Sandy Springs, Roswell,
Dunwoody, East Point, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Snellville, Suwanee,
College Park, Buford, Lilburn, and Loganville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 8345 3396 8355 3377 8397 3379 8398
      3372 8409 3363 8465 3383 8446 3397 8438
      3406 8414 3405 8410 3407 8411 3424 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0753Z 246DEG 61KT 3399 8420 3366 8456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH