Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northern Hill Country and northern
  I-35 Corridor until 9 PM. Large hail and damaging wind gusts most
  likely threats.

- Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
  into Friday evening for all of South Central Texas.

- Any storm that forms over South Central Texas late today or
  tonight will provide a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive
  rainfall.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall across nearly
  all areas of South Central Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

Convection is beginning in the vicinity of an old outflow boundary
near our northeastern counties. Current conditions are high CAPE with
moderate vertical wind shear. We have issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for this area until 9 PM. Steep mid-level lapse rates suggest
large hail as the most likely threat with damaging winds gusts also
likely. Storms will move from west to east.

Storms are also beginning to form out west in the vicinity of the
dryline. The airmass there is also unstable with only moderate wind
shear. Conditions are favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening. There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
across most of our CWA tonight. Convection should wane with the loss
of heating by late evening. The overnight period should be quiet.

A cold front will drop down through central Texas during the day
Friday. This bring a better chance for widespread convection. The
airmass will remain unstable and the severe risk will be level 2 of 5
again. In addition the PW will be high enough that locally heavy rain
will be possible and WPC has a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Drying out and a beautiful weekend for most areas on tap

- Wet and stormy pattern continues through Thursday

Starting the forecast period we should have most of the heavy rain
and possible strong storms pushing out of most of our southern areas
as the front pushes southward. In its wake we should see skies start
to clear out with humidity levels dropping and highs in the upper
70s leading to a nice Saturday with light northeast winds. An even
better day is expected on Sunday under partly to mostly sunny skies
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Things quickly change as we resume southerly flow which brings the
return of more humid conditions though high temperatures shouldn't
be as warm as this past week with most areas staying in the low 80s.
Additionally, chances for rain and thunderstorms begin to increase
Monday into Tuesday as several upper level short waves move from
northeast Mexico into the local area. The wet pattern continues
throughout the week as an upper level low pressure system over New
Mexico tries to push east into central TX. Surface wise we will have
a frontal boundary that pushes into our area Wednesday into Thursday
bringing several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Like
this past week the dryline is expected to stay just west of Del Rio
thus leaving our area on the warm and humid side of things thus
giving our area repeated chances for rounds and rounds of storms. At
this point it is too early to tell if we could have strong to severe
storms with each round so check back for future forecasts as things
become further refined. Temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s
and low 80s Monday to the mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday before
cooling back down to the low 80s for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain around South Central
Texas through around midnight before dissipating. Highest confidence
for thunderstorms remains at DRT tonight with lesser confidence at
AUS. SAT/SSF may miss out on activity tonight. MVFR ceilings return
overnight through Friday morning. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return Friday afternoon at all sites but have pushed
back the time a bit on this TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  87  63  80 /  30  80  70  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  87  62  78 /  30  80  70  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  90  64  81 /  20  70  70  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  83  61  78 /  30  80  60  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  90  67  82 /  30  40  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  84  61  77 /  30  80  70  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  87  64  80 /  30  60  70  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  87  63  79 /  20  80  70  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  88  64  79 /  20  80  80  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  88  65  79 /  20  70  70  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  90  66  80 /  20  70  70  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
713 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     Hail             4 W Andice              30.79N 97.91W
05/01/2025  M1.00 Inch       Williamson         TX   Public

            Near intersection of CR208 and CR236.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
721 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Hail             2 NE Inks Lake State Pa 30.76N 98.35W
05/01/2025  M2.25 Inch       Burnet             TX   Public

            Report from mPING.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
725 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Hail             5 NE Buchanan Dam       30.81N 98.37W
05/01/2025  M2.75 Inch       Burnet             TX   Law Enforcement

            Reported at 690 and CR 114.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
729 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Hail             2 NNE Inks Lake State P 30.77N 98.35W
05/01/2025  M2.50 Inch       Burnet             TX   Public

            Reported on Hwy 29 east of Buchanan Dam.

&&

JR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
744 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

TXZ173-194-020130-
Williamson TX-Lee TX-
744 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Williamson and northern Lee Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Granger Dam to near Round Rock. Movement
was southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Georgetown, Taylor, Granger, Lexington, Serenada, Hutto,
Bartlett, Liberty Hill, Jarrell, Thorndale, Thrall, Weir, Dime Box,
Fedor, Georgetown Dam, Granger Dam, Tanglewood, Coupland, and Sun
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 9709 3034 9720 3042 9738 3044 9740
      3044 9742 3046 9744 3047 9750 3066 9786
      3083 9752 3074 9727 3046 9715 3056 9696
      3054 9692 3046 9690 3046 9688 3043 9687
      3039 9679 3034 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 301DEG 39KT 3070 9724 3058 9764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brady

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
751 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

TXZ203-218-020130-
Uvalde TX-Zavala TX-
751 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Uvalde
and northwestern Zavala Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 751 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Blewett to 13 miles west of La Pryor.
Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Pryor, Blewett, and Dabney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2878 10010 2895 10011 2916 10011 2922 9993
      2878 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 351DEG 15KT 2915 10005 2896 10007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CP