Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northern Hill Country and northern
  I-35 Corridor until 9 PM. Large hail and damaging wind gusts most
  likely threats.

- Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon
  into Friday evening for all of South Central Texas.

- Any storm that forms over South Central Texas late today or
  tonight will provide a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive
  rainfall.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall across nearly
  all areas of South Central Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

Convection is beginning in the vicinity of an old outflow boundary
near our northeastern counties. Current conditions are high CAPE with
moderate vertical wind shear. We have issued a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch for this area until 9 PM. Steep mid-level lapse rates suggest
large hail as the most likely threat with damaging winds gusts also
likely. Storms will move from west to east.

Storms are also beginning to form out west in the vicinity of the
dryline. The airmass there is also unstable with only moderate wind
shear. Conditions are favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening. There is a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
across most of our CWA tonight. Convection should wane with the loss
of heating by late evening. The overnight period should be quiet.

A cold front will drop down through central Texas during the day
Friday. This bring a better chance for widespread convection. The
airmass will remain unstable and the severe risk will be level 2 of 5
again. In addition the PW will be high enough that locally heavy rain
will be possible and WPC has a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Key Messages:

- Drying out and a beautiful weekend for most areas on tap

- Wet and stormy pattern continues through Thursday

Starting the forecast period we should have most of the heavy rain
and possible strong storms pushing out of most of our southern areas
as the front pushes southward. In its wake we should see skies start
to clear out with humidity levels dropping and highs in the upper
70s leading to a nice Saturday with light northeast winds. An even
better day is expected on Sunday under partly to mostly sunny skies
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Things quickly change as we resume southerly flow which brings the
return of more humid conditions though high temperatures shouldn't
be as warm as this past week with most areas staying in the low 80s.
Additionally, chances for rain and thunderstorms begin to increase
Monday into Tuesday as several upper level short waves move from
northeast Mexico into the local area. The wet pattern continues
throughout the week as an upper level low pressure system over New
Mexico tries to push east into central TX. Surface wise we will have
a frontal boundary that pushes into our area Wednesday into Thursday
bringing several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Like
this past week the dryline is expected to stay just west of Del Rio
thus leaving our area on the warm and humid side of things thus
giving our area repeated chances for rounds and rounds of storms. At
this point it is too early to tell if we could have strong to severe
storms with each round so check back for future forecasts as things
become further refined. Temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s
and low 80s Monday to the mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday before
cooling back down to the low 80s for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain around South Central
Texas through around midnight before dissipating. Highest confidence
for thunderstorms remains at DRT tonight with lesser confidence at
AUS. SAT/SSF may miss out on activity tonight. MVFR ceilings return
overnight through Friday morning. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return Friday afternoon at all sites but have pushed
back the time a bit on this TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  87  63  80 /  30  80  70  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  87  62  78 /  30  80  70  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  90  64  81 /  20  70  70  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  83  61  78 /  30  80  60  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  90  67  82 /  30  40  60  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  84  61  77 /  30  80  70  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  87  64  80 /  30  60  70  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  87  63  79 /  20  80  70  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  88  64  79 /  20  80  80  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  88  65  79 /  20  70  70  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  90  66  80 /  20  70  70  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27

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