River Flood Warning 20, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
today. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Hill Country and I-35
corridor through 7 PM CDT.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" for the Independence Day
weekend into Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A mid level MCV and unseasonably moist airmass (05/00Z soundings
showed 2.1 inch PWs at Del Rio and Corpus Christi which are in the
90 percentile plus) remain in place over our area. This feature and
moist airmass linger over our area through this weekend. Forcing by
this feature along with heating will generate rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Storm motion vectors show slow moving and
repeat activity to enhance efficient warm rain processes. As a
result, locally heavy rains with amounts of generally 2 to 4 inches
are expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. These
amounts will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new
flooding as soils are saturated making runoff more rapid. The
heaviest rains will be over the Hill Country to along and east of
the I-35 corridor today. Have issued a Flood Watch through 7 PM CDT
for those areas. Most models show the rains shifting to our western
areas on Sunday. There is a potential for another Flood Watch for
Sunday. The clouds and rain areas will conspire to keep daytime
temperatures below to well below early July averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The mid level feature remains in close proximity to generate showers
and isolated thunderstorms on Monday with a possibility of locally
heavy downpours. Have expanded the slight chances to most of our area
for Monday. Most models/ensembles show the Subtropical Ridge shoving
the mid level feature away from our area while bringing increased
subsidence and decreasing moisture levels to keep rainfall out of the
forecast for the remainder of this coming week. However, an inverted
trough moving in from the east may bring chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday per GFS. Later
forecasts may introduce rain chances should this become a trend.
Increased sunshine leads to temperatures warming to near to slightly
above mid July averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mainly MVFR CIGs mix to VFR by midday, then return tonight. Areas of
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA will continue over the eastern Hill Country to along
and east of I-35 through today, then shift to the west by Sunday.
Have SHRA/VCSH this morning and PROB30s for TSRA this afternoon at
the I-35 sites. A mix of CIGS/VSBYs can be expected in SHRA/TSRA. S
to SE winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  92  73 /  70  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  73  91  72 /  60  20  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  73  91  72 /  70  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            81  72  88  71 /  70  30  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  75  91  75 /  10  20  40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  72  89  72 /  70  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  87  72 /  40  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  73  91  72 /  70  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  73  93  73 /  50  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  90  74 /  60  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  75  92  74 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
722 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     Flash Flood      3 E Marble Falls        30.58N 98.23W
07/05/2025                   Burnet             TX   Emergency Mngr

            RV Park along Hamilton Creek has at least
            four feet water of water inundation and
            vehicles floating. Residents stranded.

&&

JR