River Flood Warning 19, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
today. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Hill Country and I-35
corridor through 7 PM CDT.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" for the Independence Day
weekend into Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A mid level MCV and unseasonably moist airmass (05/00Z soundings
showed 2.1 inch PWs at Del Rio and Corpus Christi which are in the
90 percentile plus) remain in place over our area. This feature and
moist airmass linger over our area through this weekend. Forcing by
this feature along with heating will generate rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Storm motion vectors show slow moving and
repeat activity to enhance efficient warm rain processes. As a
result, locally heavy rains with amounts of generally 2 to 4 inches
are expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. These
amounts will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new
flooding as soils are saturated making runoff more rapid. The
heaviest rains will be over the Hill Country to along and east of
the I-35 corridor today. Have issued a Flood Watch through 7 PM CDT
for those areas. Most models show the rains shifting to our western
areas on Sunday. There is a potential for another Flood Watch for
Sunday. The clouds and rain areas will conspire to keep daytime
temperatures below to well below early July averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The mid level feature remains in close proximity to generate showers
and isolated thunderstorms on Monday with a possibility of locally
heavy downpours. Have expanded the slight chances to most of our area
for Monday. Most models/ensembles show the Subtropical Ridge shoving
the mid level feature away from our area while bringing increased
subsidence and decreasing moisture levels to keep rainfall out of the
forecast for the remainder of this coming week. However, an inverted
trough moving in from the east may bring chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday per GFS. Later
forecasts may introduce rain chances should this become a trend.
Increased sunshine leads to temperatures warming to near to slightly
above mid July averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A tricky and low confidence TAF period can be expected. Looking at
current radar obs there is a persistent cell just to the west of
KAUS. From this cell -RA is overspreading the site and expect that
to continue until at least 08Z if not longer. Expect MVFR to
continue overnight for all I-35 sites with the possibility of IFR by
11Z. Introduced TEMPOs tomorrow morning for this possibility with -TSRAs
and TEMPOs for KSAT and KSSF for -RA. -RA could continue through the
late morning and early afternoon for both sites as well thus have
added prevailing -RA until 19Z. Added PROB30s for KAUS based on
recent model trends for Saturday afternoon with possibility for more
-RA and even -TSRA for KSAT and KSSF as well. For KDRT expect mainly
VFR CIGs with TEMPO for early morning for possible MVFR CIGs before
returning to VFR conditions for rest of TAF period. All TAF sites are
expected to return to VFR by 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  92  73 /  70  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  73  91  72 /  60  20  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  73  91  72 /  70  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            81  72  88  71 /  70  30  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  75  91  75 /  10  20  40  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  72  89  72 /  70  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  73  87  72 /  40  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  73  91  72 /  70  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  73  93  73 /  50  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  90  74 /  60  20  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  75  92  74 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...CJM