River Flood Warning 18, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
652 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flooding from slow moving storms is possible this
  afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Edwards
  Plateau, the Hill Country, and Bexar County.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" for the Independence Day
  weekend with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A mid to upper level low continues to move through our CWA this
afternoon. It has generally been weakening, but still has
pockets of stronger showers. Locally heavy rain is possible this
afternoon and the Flood Watch remains in effect. Rain chances
will decrease this evening, but 30%-40% POPs will continue over
the eastern half of the CWA tonight and Saturday. The upper
level disturbance will continue to slowly dissipate as it moves
toward the southeast. Rainfall amounts will be lower overall,
but locally heavy rain will be possible. Storm motion is
expected to more progressive and we don't expect any flooding.
Saturday night rain chances will decrease further. Low
temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be near normal, but
highs Saturday will be below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The mid level feature will linger into Sunday. Moisture levels
will remain elevated enough to allow for isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms over Hill Country and Rio
Grande Plains. The subtropical ridge will build more fully over
our area next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms wane
as the airmass dries under increasing subsidence. The only rain
chances will be with the seabreeze near the Coastal Plains each
afternoon Monday and Tuesday. Increased sunshine will lead to
temperatures warming to near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An organized storm complex continues to drift slowly east across the
region with bands of RA and isolated TSRA. TSRA coverage is
decreasing and prevailing CIGs have lifted to VFR for most
terminals. -RA redevelops and prevails at KAUS by 08Z as some models
are hinting at increasing convection over the area. Not confident
enough to specify specifics and will continue to monitor and amend as
needed. Added TEMPOs for both KSAT and KSSF for possibility of -RA
tomorrow morning around 11Z to 15Z. -RA could continue through the
late morning and early afternoon for both sites as well. For KDRT
expect mainly VFR CIGs with TEMPO for early morning for possible
MVFR CIGs before returning to VFR conditions for rest of TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  86  73  93 /  40  50  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  85  72  92 /  40  40  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  86  72  91 /  40  50  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  84  71  90 /  40  50  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  75  93 /  10  10  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  83  72  91 /  40  50  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  86  73  88 /  30  40  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  84  72  91 /  40  50  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  90  73  93 /  30  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  85  75  90 /  40  50  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  87  75  92 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Uvalde.

&&

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...CJM