Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With low pressure in the area tonight, a cold front will move
through the region Friday, with yet another area of low pressure
moving in from the southwest for the weekend, lingering into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing convective activity along a prefrontal trough across the CWA
this afternoon, moving eastward through northern OH and eventually
northwestern PA. A warm front has lifted through the region this
morning and early afternoon, bringing dewpoints into the 60F range
and temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80F. Destabilization
occurring downstream of the line of storms and do expect
strengthening further east.

On the synoptic scale, this activity is ahead of a cold front still
back in Illinois. Surface low near ORD will track northeastward,
remaining west of our CWA, and this will keep the cold front from
coming through tonight. Expecting most of the convection to subside,
but some low end POPs will still be carried into the tonight period.
Flow aloft remains southwesterly, and the upper trough over the
upper midwest will sink southward and gradually become cutoff
through the remainder of the near term period. Without much eastward
progression also due to a newly developed surface low further west,
the surface system will be slow to exit, and as such, will have
another chance for convection Friday. Despite the slow moving nature
of the cold front into and through the CWA for Friday, it will
eventually make its way through, and the convective risk will become
more focused on the southeastern zones of the CWA where the latest
SPC out look gives a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. After
this threat, the upper level low cutting off over the mid
Mississippi Valley will generate yet another surface low, and renew
the POPs Friday night from south to north. These will have a lower
thunderstorm threat with them, but the active pattern will persist
into the short term.

Temperatures cooler Friday but still slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low settling over the northern Ohio Valley will be the
primary weather driver through the short term period. The low will
bring in a steady stream of moisture from the south into the region
allowing for a cool and rainy weekend. Given the placement of low
and moisture plume, areas along and east of the I-71 corridor have
the highest potential to see upwards of 1 inch of rainfall this
weekend. A few hundred Joules of MUCAPE may enter from the southeast
so maintained the slight chance for thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will likely top out
in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 40s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low will begin to move eastward through Tuesday night
with showers continuing early next week. Models begin to
diverge by Tuesday night with the progression of the upper low
with the Canadian and the ECMWF pushing the low quickly to the
northeast and the GFS keeping the upper low in the vicinity of
the Mid-Atlantic coast through mid-week. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the long term with highs approaching the
70s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A line of thunderstorms is moving through northern Ohio and will
push into western Pennsylvania later this afternoon/evening.

Out ahead of these storms, winds are gusting out of the SSW to
30kts. Thunderstorm activity would likely see higher gusts. The
window for the thunderstorm activity to move through with the
primary line is 18-22Z. Some lingering convective activity in
its wake, and also forming out ahead of the line, should be
expected, but would be more isolated.

Ceilings ahead of the line of storms is generally FL050-080.
MVFR expected with the storms and CB included. Brief visibility
IFR with storms in the 15-20 minute window is also expected
with storm onset.

In the wake of a trailing cold front, winds will ease out of the
southwest to 10-15kts tonight into Friday, and ceilings will
come down to predominant MVFR FL010-020, but isolated IFR FL008
is also possible for a few hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Monday, particularly in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 10-15 knots turn southwesterly by Friday morning as
a weak cold front moves south across the lake. Another cold front
will cross on Friday evening which will turn winds northerly while
decreasing to 10 knots or less. Generally northerly to northeasterly
winds hovering between 10 and 15 knots through Sunday. By early
Monday winds will favor a northeasterly direction as low pressure
lingers to the southwest. For now winds and waves look to remain
below small craft criteria through early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13/Saunders

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