Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With low pressure in the area tonight, a cold front will move
through the region Friday, with yet another area of low pressure
moving in from the southwest for the weekend, lingering into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing convective activity along a prefrontal trough across the CWA
this afternoon, moving eastward through northern OH and eventually
northwestern PA. A warm front has lifted through the region this
morning and early afternoon, bringing dewpoints into the 60F range
and temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80F. Destabilization
occurring downstream of the line of storms and do expect
strengthening further east.

On the synoptic scale, this activity is ahead of a cold front still
back in Illinois. Surface low near ORD will track northeastward,
remaining west of our CWA, and this will keep the cold front from
coming through tonight. Expecting most of the convection to subside,
but some low end POPs will still be carried into the tonight period.
Flow aloft remains southwesterly, and the upper trough over the
upper midwest will sink southward and gradually become cutoff
through the remainder of the near term period. Without much eastward
progression also due to a newly developed surface low further west,
the surface system will be slow to exit, and as such, will have
another chance for convection Friday. Despite the slow moving nature
of the cold front into and through the CWA for Friday, it will
eventually make its way through, and the convective risk will become
more focused on the southeastern zones of the CWA where the latest
SPC out look gives a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. After
this threat, the upper level low cutting off over the mid
Mississippi Valley will generate yet another surface low, and renew
the POPs Friday night from south to north. These will have a lower
thunderstorm threat with them, but the active pattern will persist
into the short term.

Temperatures cooler Friday but still slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low settling over the northern Ohio Valley will be the
primary weather driver through the short term period. The low will
bring in a steady stream of moisture from the south into the region
allowing for a cool and rainy weekend. Given the placement of low
and moisture plume, areas along and east of the I-71 corridor have
the highest potential to see upwards of 1 inch of rainfall this
weekend. A few hundred Joules of MUCAPE may enter from the southeast
so maintained the slight chance for thunderstorms on Sunday
afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will likely top out
in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 40s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low will begin to move eastward through Tuesday night
with showers continuing early next week. Models begin to
diverge by Tuesday night with the progression of the upper low
with the Canadian and the ECMWF pushing the low quickly to the
northeast and the GFS keeping the upper low in the vicinity of
the Mid-Atlantic coast through mid-week. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the long term with highs approaching the
70s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A line of thunderstorms is moving through northern Ohio and will
push into western Pennsylvania later this afternoon/evening.

Out ahead of these storms, winds are gusting out of the SSW to
30kts. Thunderstorm activity would likely see higher gusts. The
window for the thunderstorm activity to move through with the
primary line is 18-22Z. Some lingering convective activity in
its wake, and also forming out ahead of the line, should be
expected, but would be more isolated.

Ceilings ahead of the line of storms is generally FL050-080.
MVFR expected with the storms and CB included. Brief visibility
IFR with storms in the 15-20 minute window is also expected
with storm onset.

In the wake of a trailing cold front, winds will ease out of the
southwest to 10-15kts tonight into Friday, and ceilings will
come down to predominant MVFR FL010-020, but isolated IFR FL008
is also possible for a few hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Monday, particularly in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 10-15 knots turn southwesterly by Friday morning as
a weak cold front moves south across the lake. Another cold front
will cross on Friday evening which will turn winds northerly while
decreasing to 10 knots or less. Generally northerly to northeasterly
winds hovering between 10 and 15 knots through Sunday. By early
Monday winds will favor a northeasterly direction as low pressure
lingers to the southwest. For now winds and waves look to remain
below small craft criteria through early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13/Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-021730-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
126 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be severe and contain damaging wind gusts, particularly along
and east of the I-71 corridor. An embedded tornado or two and
isolated instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. There is a low probability that a storm or
two could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the
primary threat, particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

LEZ061-142-162>169-OHZ003-006-017-021730-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Hancock-
126 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be severe and contain damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. There is a low probability that a storm or
two could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the
primary threat, particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ143>149-021730-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
126 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be severe and contain damaging wind gusts, particularly across
the central and eastern basins of the lake. An embedded tornado or
two and isolated instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. There is a low probability that a storm or
two could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the
primary threat, particularly across the eastern basin of the lake.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

PAZ003-012000-
Crawford PA-
315 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Meadville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Titusville, Riceville, Canadohta Lake, Guys Mills,
Lincolnville, Cochranton, Hydetown, Blooming Valley, Townville, and
Spartansburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7982 4161 7983 4155 7992 4154 7993
      4151 7998 4149 8000 4148 8018 4153 8024
      4186 7990 4185 7961 4162 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 226DEG 35KT 4152 8009

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
324 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Hail             2 SSE Bedford Heights   41.39N 81.49W
05/01/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Public

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
329 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Hail             Lyndhurst               41.52N 81.49W
05/01/2025  M1.25 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Public report on social media.

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
332 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     Hail             1 SW Mayfield           41.54N 81.45W
05/01/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Trained Spotter

            A number of pea sized stones with a few as
            large as quarter sized.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
334 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Hail             Solon                   41.39N 81.44W
05/01/2025  M0.50 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Public

&&

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     Hail             2 SSW Moreland Hills    41.42N 81.44W
05/01/2025  M0.50 Inch       Cuyahoga           OH   Public

&&

ARK