Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025

 - There is a risk (Level 3 out of 5) of severe storms this
   evening for the northern half of Central Alabama. There is a
   risk (Level 1 to 2 out of 5) of severe storms this evening for
   most of the remainder of Central Alabama except for the far
   southeastern counties. Damaging winds, large hail, and
   tornadoes, some strong, are all possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025

Warm and moist southwest flow continues across Central Alabama
today as it has for a few days now. Temperatures have risen into
the 80s and this warm, moisture advection will continue to be
amplified as deep troughing over the Central Plains begins to take
a negative orientation with the axis extending southeast into the
Tennessee Valley. A large zone of severe weather potential is
expected today across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and into the
Midsouth region where there will be more than ample overlap of
large instability and strong dynamics. The severe risk will extend
into Central Alabama late this afternoon into the overnight hours
as a cold front advances across the Lower MS River Valley.

Thunderstorms may initially develop into discrete or multi-
cellular clusters over northern MS, moving into northwestern parts
of the forecast area as early as 5 PM and reaching the Birmingham
metro around 7 PM, then potentially evolving into a more linear
orientation to the south of the I-20 corridor. As such, discrete
cells would initially favor a higher risk of tornadoes, with
strong tornadoes possible early in the event generally along and
north of I-20 where curved forecast hodographs and MLCAPE ~2500
J/kg indicate conditions more than ideal for supercellular
development. With the activity expected to become linear with time
and southern extent amidst 50-60 kts of eff. bulk shear, damaging
straight-line winds could become the primary threat overnight.
Embedded tornadoes will still be possible, but less of a threat
as the line moves towards the southern portions of the area. The
stronger, more robust updrafts will also be capable of producing
large hail up to golf ball size, especially if we see any left-
movers. Most of the latest model solutions depict the storms
either weakening and dissipating or moving east of the area
shortly before sunrise tomorrow morning as the cold front passes
through. Northwest flow will develop behind the front tomorrow
which will finally bring a drier, and a touch cooler, airmass
back to the region.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025

Very little change with this long term forecast update. We remain
dry and slightly cooler in the wake of a cold front. Our "coolest"
day looks to be Friday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for
those across our northern counties. Our unsettled pattern returns
over the weekend as a series of upper level waves move through the
region. This will bring low to moderate chances for showers and
storms through the holiday weekend and into next week.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025

VFR right now across the area. A front will be approaching the
area, with isolated cells ahead of the line of showers and storms.
For this set of TAFs went with the best timing for the line of
showers and storms at each location with tempo wording. Once the
front clears then conditions improve 2 to 4 hours later. Winds
will increase after sunrise with gusty conditions Wednesday
afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture will continue to increase across the region this
afternoon. This will keep Min RH values near or above 50 percent
today. 20 ft winds will be from the south or southwest around 10 mph
during the afternoon. Increasing thunderstorms chances begin this
afternoon/evening across the area as a cold front moves through.
Dry conditions return Wednesday through Friday with min RH values
dropping to the 30 to 45 percent range each afternoon. Rain
chances return as we head through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  82  57  82 /  80   0   0  10
Anniston    66  83  59  84 /  80   0   0   0
Birmingham  67  83  61  84 /  80   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  86  60  87 /  80   0   0   0
Calera      67  84  61  86 /  80   0   0   0
Auburn      70  85  62  87 /  60   0   0   0
Montgomery  70  87  61  89 /  60   0   0   0
Troy        70  87  61  89 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
104 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-212115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
104 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a risk (Level 3 out of 5) of severe storms this evening for
the northern half of Central Alabama. There is a risk (Level 1 to 2
out of 5) of severe storms Tuesday evening for most of the remainder
of Central Alabama except for the far southeastern counties. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes, some strong, are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
from early this evening through early Wednesday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
711 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ011-210045-
Marion AL-
711 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Marion
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Weston, or near Hamilton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Hackleburg, Weston, Brinn, Bear Creek, Tessner, and Upper
Bear Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8770 3430 8763 3417 8764 3414 8805
      3423 8808 3431 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 254DEG 39KT 3421 8799

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ014-210115-
Winston AL-
737 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Winston
County through 815 PM CDT
...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Needmore, or over Haleyville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Brushy Lake, Needmore, Moreland, Ashridge, Posey Field
Airport, Sipsey River Rec Area, Grayson, and Pebble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8724 3426 8722 3419 8763 3431 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 257DEG 41KT 3427 8763

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ011-210115-
Marion AL-
739 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Marion
County through 815 PM CDT
...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Red Bay to near Tremont.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Weston, Pigeye, Shottsville, and Bexar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8785 3412 8795 3413 8820 3432 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 266DEG 34KT 3435 8815 3419 8826

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
817 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ012-210145-
Lamar AL-
817 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lamar County
through 845 PM CDT
...

At 817 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vernon, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Blooming Grove, Crossville, Cody, Hightogy, and Star.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8819 3386 8795 3365 8795 3363 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 252DEG 40KT 3378 8808

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ014-210230-
Winston AL-
849 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Winston
County through 930 PM CDT
...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winston Free State Barn, or 7 miles north of Lynn, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Arley, Double Springs, Addison, Houston Recreational
Area, Nesmith, Helicon, Inmanfield, Ashridge, Sardis, Corinth Rec
Area, Moreland, Winston Free State Barn, Smith Lake, Houston, Natural
Bridge, Mill Branch, Hullett Branch, Clear Creek, and Winston County
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8711 3408 8760 3424 8760 3430 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 274DEG 33KT 3415 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued by National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
857 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

ALZ013-015-210230-
Walker AL-Fayette AL-
857 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Walker
and northeastern Fayette Counties through 930 PM CDT
...

At 857 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carbon Hill, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Carbon Hill, Parrish, Cedrum Area, Holly Grove, Manchester,
Gamble, Townley, and Walker County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8765 3389 8765 3391 8722 3374 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 267DEG 36KT 3381 8757

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

32/JDavis