Tornado Warning 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

769 
WWUS53 KBIS 210142
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
842 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

NDC093-210200-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250621T0200Z/
Stutsman ND-
842 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY...

At 841 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Spiritwood, or 10 miles northeast of Jamestown,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Stutsman County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4685 9856 4700 9871 4714 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4689 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 236DEG 13KT 4699 9850 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN

$$

HEINERT

022 
WWUS53 KBIS 210148
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

NDC093-210200-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250621T0200Z/
Stutsman ND-
848 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY...

At 848 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles north of Spiritwood, or 12 miles northeast of
Jamestown, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Spiritwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4687 9850 4702 9861 4714 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4689 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 236DEG 13KT 4701 9847 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN

$$

HEINERT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms (risk level 3 out
  of 5) are possible late this evening into the overnight
  hours. The main hazards will be very large hail up to the size
  of tennis balls, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, and a few
  tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible along the I-94
  corridor from around Bismarck to Jamestown.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
  weather both Saturday and Sunday. Cooler and breezy conditions
  are expected Sunday.

- The active weather pattern continues, with additional chances
  for showers and thunderstorms next week along with
  temperatures trending cooler.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

21Z surface analysis shows a low pressure near the ND/SD/MT border
intersection with an eastward extending warm front and northeastward
extending stationary front. The air mass to the north of the
stationary front is much drier and more stable as indicated by lower
to mid 50s dewpoints and a field of billow clouds with very limited
vertical growth per satellite imagery. Recent observed soundings
from Bismarck and New England via the ICECHIP research group show
modest residual mixed layer capping with CAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg.
Kinematics are very impressive though, with 0-6 km shear around 55
kts and long hodographs with strong concavity in the lowest 1-3 km.
The New England hodograph would suggest a higher potential for
streamwise vorticity that could locally support tornadogenesis
with any discrete storm. However, severe storms ongoing in
southeast Montana as of this writing are already showing signs
of clustering, but remain semi-discrete. As long as storms
remain at least semi- discrete, very large hail and tornadoes
will be the primary hazard. But as soon as upscale growth occurs
and transitions storm mode to linear, we could be looking at an
intense bow echo/QLCS with +80 mph gusts and a few brief
embedded tornadoes given 0-3 km shear around 30-40 kts, DCAPE
around 1500 J/kg, and low level SR inflow opposing mean storm
motion.

Between 7 and 9 PM CDT, several CAMs suggest robust convection along
and between the Highway 200 and Interstate 94 corridors in response
to increasing low level warm air advection/moisture transport.
Despite shear/deep layer wind vector orientation parallel to the
boundary, there may be a short window for discrete storms that could
also pose a very large hail and tornado threat. But confidence on
storms initializing prior to the arrival of the anticipated stronger
linear complex arriving in central North Dakota later this evening
is low to medium at best.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Forecast thinking for this evening's severe threat remains
unchanged from earlier Mesoscale Discussion above. The most
intense supercell has remained just across the South Dakota
border thus far, and right moving Bunkers vectors would keep it
just south. Storms to the north are showing signs of
intensifying though. The most likely outcome is for congealing
into a linear system with bowing segments as it approaches south
central North Dakota mid to late evening. We are also now
starting to see attempts at convective initiation along an
elevated warm front southwest of Jamestown. If convection can
become fully established in this part of the state, explosive
growth into severe convection could occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently, broad upper level ridge anchored just east of the
Great Plains today, with ridging over eastern North Dakota and
southwest flow aloft across the western Dakotas.

An elevated Severe Weather risk remains for much of western and
central North Dakota this afternoon and evening, with robust
CAPE and wind shear. Height falls will start to spread across
the western Dakotas later this afternoon and evening as a mid
level S/WV lifts northeast into the region. CAMs have been
fluctuating the past several hours, but it appears a more likely
scenario is for convection initializing across southeast
Montana/southwestern North Dakota just ahead of the wave, then
moving/propagating east-northeast into western and central ND
by around and after 22-23z or so, along to just north of a west
to east orientated warm front. Noticed a CU field flaring up in
southeast MT the past hour. The chances for initial discrete
convection over south central and southeastern ND appears
minimal with BUFKIT sounding analysis indicating a rather stout
capping inversion. At the same time, hodographs south central
and southeast along the warm front continue to depict favorable
shear/helicity highly favorable for rotating storms and possible
tornadoes, especially if convection remains discrete and lasts
into the evening when hodographs become even more supportive of
strong low level rotation. But, as mentioned, CAMs support
convective initialization southwest, morphing into a wind threat
if bowing lines form. Will need to monitor closely for storm
mode through the evening as anything sfc based south
central/southeast could become problematic.

Models take storms quickly east out of our area by around 06z
tonight, though another embedded wave may lead to additional
thunderstorm activity west overnight and into Saturday morning.
A few elevated strong to severe storms could be possible with
this activity as MUCAPE is forecast to still range from 1000 to
2000 J/kg with deep layer shear remaining robust up to 60
knots. These storms may continue or re-develop into Sat
afternoon across the north along an instability gradient but are
favored to remain elevated in nature. Large hail would likely
be the main threat with this activity but a few damaging wind
gusts would also be possible. Instability on Saturday is much
stronger further south, but limited forcing and capping should
keep convection from developing there.

Strong southwest flow aloft on Sunday with multiple embedded
S/WVs moving through in flow aloft will maintain a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Despite cooler conditions and less
CAPE, cannot rule out a marginal risk (via SPC) for a few
strong storms with 0-6km shear ranging from 50-75 kts. Any CAPE
will be decreasing from west to east though, so any robust
storms would have to be within the trailing instability
corridor.

Upper trough over the western CONUS next week will maintain
southwest flow aloft and an active weather pattern. Temperatures
trend cooler Sunday and onwards, with continued chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms each day. Windy conditions also
for Sunday as the initial cold front moves through the general
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across much of western and central North Dakota this evening,
especially across the southern half of the area. The most intense
storms will be capable of very large hail and wind gusts as high as
60-65 kts. Categorical visibility restrictions can be expected with
any storm. Another batch of thunderstorms could cross northwest
North Dakota early Saturday morning, but these are less likely to be
severe. MVFR/IFR ceilings are forecast to develop across much of
western and north central North Dakota later tonight into Saturday
morning, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out at any location. Outside
of storms, winds will mostly be northerly to easterly around 10
kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Hollan
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
718 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

NDZ010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-220030-
Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-
Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
718 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 /618 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
tonight. Very large hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds to
80 mph, and a few tornadoes are all possible. A tornado or two
could become strong along the Interstate 94 corridor from around
Bismarck to Jamestown.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

NDZ001>005-009-220030-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-
718 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and
tonight. Large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds to 70
mph are the main expected hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

Hollan

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
806 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Hail             Jamestown               46.91N 98.71W
06/20/2025  E1.75 Inch       Stutsman           ND   Trained Spotter

            hail still ongoing. damage to car
            windshield.

&&

rk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
807 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Mott              46.38N 102.32W
06/20/2025  M61 MPH          Hettinger          ND   Mesonet

            10m wind gust Mott 1N NDAWN station.

&&

MEJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
810 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     Hail             1 SE Jamestown          46.90N 98.70W
06/20/2025  E3.00 Inch       Stutsman           ND   Public

            Report from mPING: Tea Cup (3.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
812 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Lefor               46.60N 102.55W
06/20/2025  M63 MPH          Hettinger          ND   Public

            weather station.

&&

rk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
813 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     Hail             Jamestown               46.91N 98.71W
06/20/2025  M2.50 Inch       Stutsman           ND   NWS Employee

            Ongoing at time of report.

&&

rk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
826 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 NNW New Leipzig       46.50N 101.99W
06/20/2025  M94 MPH          Grant              ND   Mesonet

            10 meter wind gust NDAWN Elgin 10NW.

&&

MEJ