Tornado Warning 12, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms (risk level 3 out
  of 5) are possible late this evening into the overnight
  hours. The main hazards will be very large hail up to the size
  of tennis balls, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, and a few
  tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible along the I-94
  corridor from around Bismarck to Jamestown.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
  weather both Saturday and Sunday. Cooler and breezy conditions
  are expected Sunday.

- The active weather pattern continues, with additional chances
  for showers and thunderstorms next week along with
  temperatures trending cooler.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The remaining counties (west of the Missouri River) in the
severe thunderstorm watch are expected to expire at 10 PM. The
Tornado watch remains in effect for much of central and eastern
North Dakota through 3 AM CDT. Very strong winds in excess of 80
mph and torrential rain have been reported with this line. The
potential also exists for tornados to spin up along the leading
edge of the line. To the east, tornadic supercells are moving
into eastern ND.

Adjusted pops a bit with this update. Will send out updated text
products shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 838 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

A tornado watch has been issued for much of central and eastern
North Dakota until 3 AM Saturday morning. The atmosphere remains
conducive for severe thunderstorms, including tornados across
central and eastern North Dakota. Farther west, a large complex
of storms is tracking through western and into central ND. Winds
of over 90 mph have been reported within this line of storms. Be
weather aware tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Forecast thinking for this evening's severe threat remains
unchanged from earlier Mesoscale Discussion above. The most
intense supercell has remained just across the South Dakota
border thus far, and right moving Bunkers vectors would keep it
just south. Storms to the north are showing signs of
intensifying though. The most likely outcome is for congealing
into a linear system with bowing segments as it approaches south
central North Dakota mid to late evening. We are also now
starting to see attempts at convective initiation along an
elevated warm front southwest of Jamestown. If convection can
become fully established in this part of the state, explosive
growth into severe convection could occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently, broad upper level ridge anchored just east of the
Great Plains today, with ridging over eastern North Dakota and
southwest flow aloft across the western Dakotas.

An elevated Severe Weather risk remains for much of western and
central North Dakota this afternoon and evening, with robust
CAPE and wind shear. Height falls will start to spread across
the western Dakotas later this afternoon and evening as a mid
level S/WV lifts northeast into the region. CAMs have been
fluctuating the past several hours, but it appears a more likely
scenario is for convection initializing across southeast
Montana/southwestern North Dakota just ahead of the wave, then
moving/propagating east-northeast into western and central ND
by around and after 22-23z or so, along to just north of a west
to east orientated warm front. Noticed a CU field flaring up in
southeast MT the past hour. The chances for initial discrete
convection over south central and southeastern ND appears
minimal with BUFKIT sounding analysis indicating a rather stout
capping inversion. At the same time, hodographs south central
and southeast along the warm front continue to depict favorable
shear/helicity highly favorable for rotating storms and possible
tornadoes, especially if convection remains discrete and lasts
into the evening when hodographs become even more supportive of
strong low level rotation. But, as mentioned, CAMs support
convective initialization southwest, morphing into a wind threat
if bowing lines form. Will need to monitor closely for storm
mode through the evening as anything sfc based south
central/southeast could become problematic.

Models take storms quickly east out of our area by around 06z
tonight, though another embedded wave may lead to additional
thunderstorm activity west overnight and into Saturday morning.
A few elevated strong to severe storms could be possible with
this activity as MUCAPE is forecast to still range from 1000 to
2000 J/kg with deep layer shear remaining robust up to 60
knots. These storms may continue or re-develop into Sat
afternoon across the north along an instability gradient but are
favored to remain elevated in nature. Large hail would likely
be the main threat with this activity but a few damaging wind
gusts would also be possible. Instability on Saturday is much
stronger further south, but limited forcing and capping should
keep convection from developing there.

Strong southwest flow aloft on Sunday with multiple embedded
S/WVs moving through in flow aloft will maintain a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Despite cooler conditions and less
CAPE, cannot rule out a marginal risk (via SPC) for a few
strong storms with 0-6km shear ranging from 50-75 kts. Any CAPE
will be decreasing from west to east though, so any robust
storms would have to be within the trailing instability
corridor.

Upper trough over the western CONUS next week will maintain
southwest flow aloft and an active weather pattern. Temperatures
trend cooler Sunday and onwards, with continued chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms each day. Windy conditions also
for Sunday as the initial cold front moves through the general
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across much of western and central North Dakota this evening,
especially across the southern half of the area. The most intense
storms will be capable of very large hail and wind gusts as high as
60-65 kts. Categorical visibility restrictions can be expected with
any storm. Another batch of thunderstorms could cross northwest
North Dakota early Saturday morning, but these are less likely to be
severe. MVFR/IFR ceilings are forecast to develop across much of
western and north central North Dakota later tonight into Saturday
morning, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out at any location. Outside
of storms, winds will mostly be northerly to easterly around 10
kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1015 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

NDZ012-013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-220315-
McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1015 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible tonight. Very large
hail up to tennis ball size, damaging winds to 80 mph, and a few
tornadoes are all possible. A tornado or two could become strong
along the Interstate 94 corridor from around Bismarck to
Jamestown.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

NDZ001>005-009>011-017>020-031>034-040>045-220315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
1015 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 /915 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The severe thunderstorm threat has ended for this evening. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible on Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service at 701-223-4582.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNE Mandan            46.85N 100.88W
06/20/2025  M78 MPH          Morton             ND   Public

            Weather station. Also reported 1.31 inches
            of rain.

&&

rk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1008 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 W Wishek              46.26N 99.67W
06/20/2025  M81 MPH          McIntosh           ND   Mesonet

            10 meter measured wind gust NDAWN Wishek 5W.

&&

MEJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Robinson          47.17N 99.80W
06/20/2025  M71 MPH          Kidder             ND   Mesonet

            10 meter measured wind gust Robinson 3NNW.

&&

MEJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1010 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Tappen            46.89N 99.58W
06/20/2025  M69 MPH          Kidder             ND   Mesonet

            10 meter measured wind gust NDAWN Tappen 3E.

&&

MEJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1011 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bismarck                46.81N 100.78W
06/20/2025                   Burleigh           ND   Public

            Tree limbs down in Hillview area.

&&

rk

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1019 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 NNW Wing              47.27N 100.33W
06/20/2025  M70 MPH          Burleigh           ND   Mesonet

            10 meter measured wind gust NDAWN 8N Wing.

&&

MEJ