High Wind Watch 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

An area of low stratus clouds and snow showers persists over the
western Kenai Peninsula, Cook Inlet, and western Susitna Valley
this morning as a weak trough lingers over the region. Farther
east, an upper-level ridge is extending from Northern British
Columbia and the Yukon Territory into the Copper River Basin.
Southerly flow between the ridge and a strong area of low pressure
moving north toward the southeastern Gulf is pushing a stream of
high clouds over the eastern half of Southcentral. Precipitation
is developing over the Gulf, along a surface front extending from
the aforementioned low. Temperatures early this morning range from
the teens and 20s along the coast and into the Mat-Su Valleys to
the teens and single digits across the Copper River Valley.

The forecast looks to be on track with regard to the advancing
area of low pressure, as this feature will become the dominant
weather feature for Southcentral through the next couple days
guiding the shift to a more active weather pattern. With low
pressure building over the Gulf and cold air building over the
interior of Southcentral, gusty northerly winds draining out of
the gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm
are expected to build Wednesday morning. Gusty winds through
Thompson Pass are also expected to similarly build, and given any
transportable snow on or near the roadways, may also lead to
periods of blowing snow through the pass at times of peak wind
gusts. Significant/continued reductions in visibility is not
expected, however periods are possible Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning. Wednesday night, precipitation is expected to
build across Prince William Sound, and eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Areas of the Copper River Basin may also see period of light
snowfall through Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday as
far north as Glennallen and Eureka.

By Thursday morning, snowfall will quickly build across the
eastern Kenai, pushing across the mountains and creating snowfall
near Portage, Turnagain Arm, and Turnagain Pass. Turnagain Pass
will see the quickest rise in snowfall rates, with accumulations
expected along the road system through Thursday. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for this, please see that product for
more information. Later Thursday morning, the low will push
further north and west, allowing precipitation to persist closer
to the Anchorage Peninsula, with snowfall expected to begin for
the Hillside, with extensions into south and eastern Anchorage
possible, in the later morning. Snow is expected to continue for
these areas of the city through Thursday afternoon, as the low
shifts back into the western Gulf, retreating the snowfall back up
Turnagain Arm. Snowfall is likely to continue for the Turnagain
Pass area through Friday morning, although warmer air near the
surface along with easterly winds, should allow for snow to
changeover to rain for Whittier and Portage by Thursday afternoon.

-CL/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

An upper level low that has been drifting over the western
Interior over the past day or so is beginning to dip south into
the Yukon Delta this morning. South of this feature across
Southwest, stubborn areas of low stratus that developed yesterday
are still lingering across much of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol
Bay. Northerly winds are just now beginning to pick up across
Southwest, and this increasing northerly flow should help clear
out most of the lower level stratus as the day progresses. Some
of the lower cloud cover is already starting to erode across the
northern Kuskokwim Delta, but patchy fog is trying to form in
places as clearing allows near surface air to cool and saturate
where winds have not yet materialized. Across the Bering, the
pattern has become more nebulous and disorganized. A couple
trailing shortwaves are still moving across the central Aleutians
in the wake of a gale force low exiting into the North Pacific,
but the bulk of precipitation near this low is clearing out of the
region. Gusty north to northeast winds are still affecting much
of the central and eastern parts of the Chain, but winds will also
trend downwards with time today.

The outlook for the next few days is little changed compared to
yesterday. Across Southwest, the upper low approaching from the
north will swing across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening, then
down over the northern AKPen and Bristol Bay on Thursday.
Moisture near this system will be limited given the brisk, dry
northerly flow developing in the low levels. What snowfall we do
see will be concentrated over the Kuskokwim Mountains, where
intensifying northerly flow upslopes into terrain and wrings out
what moisture content there is to work with. Even so, there may be
a period of light snow that arcs across the Kuskokwim Delta right
as the upper low moves across, especially near and southeast of
Bethel. However, this should be a fairly brief and light round of
snow as the low brushes past, and most spots away from the
mountains are unlikely to see more than half and inch of new
snowfall through Thursday morning. Gusty northerly winds will
strengthen further on Thursday and persist into Friday as a
strong low shifts into the Gulf and as the low aloft stretches out
into more of a negatively-tilted trough over Southwest. Winds
will be strongest along and south of the Alaska Peninsula, where
gap flow will be enhanced both by cold advection and strong
northwest flow in the upper levels developing west of the trough
axis.

Looking to the west, the next feature of interest will be a weak
frontal system associated with a low moving along the Kamchatka
Peninsula. This front will bring a quick-hitting round of showers
(mostly in the form of rain) across the Aleutian Chain and western
Bering from this evening into Thursday. The front will begin to
lose steam as it approaches the Pribilofs and eastern Aleutians
from Thursday night into Friday, but it will likely still bring a
mix of rain and snow showers past before it fully shears apart
over the eastern Bering Sea. Later on Friday, attention will turn
to what is expected to become a rapidly intensifying low moving up
from the North Pacific into the far western Bering. The low's
occluding front is expected to be quite strong as it heads across
the western Aleutians during the day on Friday, bringing a round
of Storm force winds and possibly Hurricane force gusts across the
western end of the Chain. Stay tuned as we follow this next
stronger system as it continues to head into the western Bering
Sea this weekend.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Several strong storms will move across the Bering Sea from this
weekend through early next week. Of note is that models are in
much, much better agreement than is typical for this timeframe,
which suggests higher than usual forecast confidence with these
storms.

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the first storm
will be a low pressure system sweeping across the Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands and into Southwest Alaska through at least
Monday. Models are honing in on a very strong low, with
deterministic models showing central pressure below 950 mb (and
as low as about 935 mb if the deterministic Canadian and GFS
models are to be believed). The primary hazard to watch for will
be hurricane-force gusts across the Western Aleutians/Bering.
Though the front will weaken as the low occludes, it may still be
strong enough to increase coastal water levels along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast Sunday morning. For most other areas, expect
widespread gales and moderate to heavy precipitation at times.

Forecast confidence declines from Sunday into Monday regarding the
position of both the occluding low and a triple point low that
forms along the front in the North Pacific. Regardless, expect
localized gales around both lows.

By Monday night, another strong low pushes its front across the
Bering Sea. Confidence is high that this will be gale force front,
with the potential for sustained storm force winds. This second
low won't be as strong as the first low arriving late this week,
but it will be slower to occlude. As such, the front may be
comparable in strength to the first low's front.

-Chen

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected
throughout the TAF period. Northerly winds are expected to
increase with occasional gusts to 15 kt overnight Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1256 PM AKST Wed Nov 5 2025

AKZ755-061500-
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Quinhagak, Kipnuk, Toksook Bay,
and Mekoryuk
1256 PM AKST Wed Nov 5 2025

...INCREASED WATER LEVELS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM COAST THIS WEEKEND...

Water levels are projected to rise above the normal highest tide
line this weekend. Minor flooding will be possible during
overnight high tides on Friday night/early Saturday morning and
Saturday night/early Sunday morning. The greatest potential for
minor flooding will be in the community of Kwigillingok during
the Saturday night/early Sunday morning high tide cycle where
water levels could rise between 1.5 to 2.5 ft above the normal
highest tide line. At levels above 2 ft, access to the airstrip
and portions of the community could be threatened (via roads and
boardwalks). Confidence is increasing on the potential for minor
flooding, especially across Kwigillingok for the Saturday
night/early Sunday morning timeframe. Water levels around the
Kipnuk area are expected to be less than 2 ft above the normal
highest tide line. Therefore, any impacts are expected to be
minor (low-lying/flood prone areas). Please continue to monitor
for updates to the forecast.